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crashmonitor

Rightmove Up 3.3% Mom

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/articles/property-news/prices-up-by-3-3-despite-18-jump-in-new-seller-numbers-2

Don't believe the Market is quite as rosy as a couple of weeks ago (for sellers that is), definitely new stock coming on now.. Sellers taking advantage of what they perceive to be a boom.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I saw this coming on Friday. Sentiment is very high and I forecast a ''big leap'.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=196727

But like me they may have misread things. I have been rightly taken to task a few times on this forum because of my bullish commentary on the Market lately. Low stocks were clearly working in the favour of house price inflation and easy sales for vendors. But I expect things to start balancing out. Clearly they will because 3% MOM rises just aren't sustainable.

On the bright side collapsing unemployment, 3.4% GDP and a housing market that needs reining in just isn't compatible with ZIRP.

Edited by crashmonitor

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But I expect things to start balancing out. Clearly they will because 3% MOM rises just aren't sustainable.

Even 0.5% monthly rises aren't sustainable when wages are rising at a fifth of that rate.

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Their data is very volatile.

Last month prime central London was down around 7% (i.e. Westminster and Kensington). This month it is up by the same amount i.e. back where it was two months ago.

Still big regional variations - south west, Yorks and Humber and the West Midlands only up by 0.1-0.3% whereas London up by ovr 5% and suprisingly the north east doing well as well?

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Their data is very volatile.

Would be more indicative if they seasoned the data like Haliwide. February-May always sees a rise in asking prices and a fall off at the end of the summer and again in the run up to Christmas. Last February saw a rise of 2.8%.

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I was looking yesterday and found 6 single home building plots within 5 mile radius of where we are renting. Last time I looked, which was a month ago, there was 3 within a 20 mile radius of the south of Bristol.

If these plots keep popping up, so that prices reduce from the £125,000 for 0.1 acres so something more sensible.

I will keep an eye out.

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Currency traders love the rightmove data, nothing learnt from the last boom as pound reaches four year highs........

http://www.bloomberg...rices-rise.html

You can only trade what's in front of you. Whether we like it or not, foreigners are buying UK property as a safe haven asset and in the process exchanging dollars and yuan for pounds sterling. The Chinese debt monster is still gorging furiously; the tsunami of US and Japanese QE continues almost unabated. The Krugmanite wreckers seem determined to drive asset prices way beyond peak 2007 before they relent and declare 'mission accomplished'.

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me

Currency traders love the rightmove data, nothing learnt from the last boom as pound reaches four year highs........

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-17/pound-climbs-to-4-year-high-against-dollar-as-house-prices-rise.html

Carney is going to have to do some serious talking down of the pound at some point. Maybe Merv could be re-employed as a consultant to do it. He was always pretty good at it.

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We have returned to normal.

Realisation that NO ONE can afford to pay the ludicrous prices is about to hit.

...in my part of the world (Harrogate) there is a very interesting Mexican standoff developing. Interestingly there is slowly a building up a forest of for sale signs going up for retirement flats, clearly final steppers moving in to either care homes (or pine and brass accommodation). however I assume these are not being 'snapped up' because a combination of the downsizing buyers cant offload the 4 bed detatched they bought for 12k back in 1975 for £650k, and vendors of the retirement flats not dropping the price (flats for older people are ridiculously priced in Harrogate) Plenty of 400K plus houses have gone on last year or even earlier, then come off again, and are starting to reappear. One particular house I have been watching went on initially for a laughable 650k reduced to 595 last summer, down to £585 and now on with 3 agents for offers over £550k. I assume that one is now being in danger of being caught in the dreaded stamp duty 'tractor beam' :lol:

Another one £625K now £595K (unoccupied and impossible to rent out due to dated décor)

The Govt is simply fostering this misallocation of resources again (retirees in huge houses they don't want to live in, families packed in to small houses they cant afford to move out of) This is in a part of the UK where prices are still relatively flat. I cannot imagine how angry anyone in the SE where all the money being jet hosed by TPTB seems to be creating another bubble feels about this

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...in my part of the world (Harrogate) there is a very interesting Mexican standoff developing. Interestingly there is slowly a building up a forest of for sale signs going up for retirement flats, clearly final steppers moving in to either care homes (or pine and brass accommodation). however I assume these are not being 'snapped up' because a combination of the downsizing buyers cant offload the 4 bed detatched they bought for 12k back in 1975 for £650k, and vendors of the retirement flats not dropping the price (flats for older people are ridiculously priced in Harrogate) Plenty of 400K plus houses have gone on last year or even earlier, then come off again, and are starting to reappear. One particular house I have been watching went on initially for a laughable 650k reduced to 595 last summer, down to £585 and now on with 3 agents for offers over £550k. I assume that one is now being in danger of being caught in the dreaded stamp duty 'tractor beam' :lol:

Another one £625K now £595K (unoccupied and impossible to rent out due to dated décor)

The Govt is simply fostering this misallocation of resources again (retirees in huge houses they don't want to live in, families packed in to small houses they cant afford to move out of) This is in a part of the UK where prices are still relatively flat. I cannot imagine how angry anyone in the SE where all the money being jet hosed by TPTB seems to be creating another bubble feels about this

I think this must be happening up and down the country.

Who in their right mind are going to pay 100K more for a crappy 4 bed new build than a year ago. The whole thing has a feeling of a desperate mania.

No one in 2000 talked like house prices going up was a bad thing....now everyone does.

The tories have mis-read the electorate, or the really do want to loose the election.

3.3% asking price increase, how much of that was london ?

What's that annualised, 40%....where's the BoE and their action to prevent a bubble....right next door to me, ****ing nowhere, that's where.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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...in my part of the world (Harrogate) there is a very interesting Mexican standoff developing. Interestingly there is slowly a building up a forest of for sale signs going up for retirement flats, clearly final steppers moving in to either care homes (or pine and brass accommodation). however I assume these are not being 'snapped up' because a combination of the downsizing buyers cant offload the 4 bed detatched they bought for 12k back in 1975 for £650k, and vendors of the retirement flats not dropping the price (flats for older people are ridiculously priced in Harrogate) Plenty of 400K plus houses have gone on last year or even earlier, then come off again, and are starting to reappear. One particular house I have been watching went on initially for a laughable 650k reduced to 595 last summer, down to £585 and now on with 3 agents for offers over £550k. I assume that one is now being in danger of being caught in the dreaded stamp duty 'tractor beam' :lol:

Another one £625K now £595K (unoccupied and impossible to rent out due to dated décor)

The Govt is simply fostering this misallocation of resources again (retirees in huge houses they don't want to live in, families packed in to small houses they cant afford to move out of) This is in a part of the UK where prices are still relatively flat. I cannot imagine how angry anyone in the SE where all the money being jet hosed by TPTB seems to be creating another bubble feels about this

The 400k plus market is a tricky sell in the north, but some boomers appear to be getting around this by just moving and owning two homes as a hoard or a BTL. Three examples of this I am aware of locally. Wracking my brain re. a similar multi million pound celebrity hoarder in London, where they moved a couple of doors down and kept the old house empty.

Edited by crashmonitor

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As other posters have said this data is volatile, and i don't think they seasonally adjust them. Taking the headline percentage htb policy will require reworking much faster than expected.

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The Govt is simply fostering this misallocation of resources again (retirees in huge houses they don't want to live in, families packed in to small houses they cant afford to move out of) This is in a part of the UK where prices are still relatively flat. I cannot imagine how angry anyone in the SE where all the money being jet hosed by TPTB seems to be creating another bubble feels about this

Might try and draw a cartoon this week in which an agent is showing a large family around a tiny little house

"It's fully RSPCA compliant...there isn't room to swing a cat"

Then perhaps another one where there is an old lady rattling around a massive house, next door to a family of 5 in a shoebox.

Not sure that one needs any text, although it's depressing rather than amusing...

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Low stocks were clearly working in the favour of house price inflation and easy sales for vendors.

Low stock of inventory may meet a point of even lower demand, at a certain threshold. Demand is very flexible, especially when markets pulled in just about everyone willing and able to pay higher prices.

And it's a feature of markets that higher prices should draw out more sellers.

Annoying it hasn't really done so, and I fear the tick up is just some of the same old crud some owners couldn't sell in previous years at high prices into Spring.

Yet any tick up in inventory to market is welcome. Too many are on the market with no need to sell, and can hold out for their price. For lower house prices we need more owners feeling more of a pressing need to sell, and who will accept lower prices. Is that happening or not?

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Nearby this house (description please) http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-33717502.html (it sold for £2m in the end)

I had a walk around this place last week. Not my sort of house at all, just had a nosey. Big red boiler in the garage, almost size of 2 American fridges stacked on each other, and seemingly other boiler pumps in other parts of the house.

I daren't be as critical as I want to be, to prevent myself getting in legal trouble. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29242698.html

Goodbye boom, the days of buy house, knock it down, build new mcmansion, flip for £1m+ profit. (I hope).

Previous listing: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-33164488.html

Price history: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=16275360&sale=34575506&country=england

So weakness at the top, seemingly, or at least part of the big froth skimmed off. Hopefully that will cascade downwards.

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Nearby this house (description please) http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-33717502.html (it sold for £2m in the end)

I had a walk around this place last week. Not my sort of house at all, just had a nosey. Big red boiler in the garage, almost size of 2 American fridges stacked on each other, and seemingly other boiler pumps in other parts of the house.

I daren't be as critical as I want to be, to prevent myself getting in legal trouble. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29242698.html

Goodbye boom, the days of buy house, knock it down, build new mcmansion, flip for £1m+ profit. (I hope).

Previous listing: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-33164488.html

Price history: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=16275360&sale=34575506&country=england

So weakness at the top, seemingly, or at least part of the big froth skimmed off. Hopefully that will cascade downwards.

Six years of having 1.1 million tied up, plus all the servicing costs and buying and selling costs.....highlights why renting may have been the cheaper option.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Six years of having 1.1 million tied up, plus all the servicing costs and buying and selling costs.....highlights why renting may have been the cheaper option.

Ah I should have been more specific. Looks like bought for 1.1m in 2008, (perhaps off another person who intended to do the same when they bought it in 2007 but took an easy land flip profit and sold in 2008) knock down old house, then built that new house. Have to see what they sell it for, as it's offers over.

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Low stock of inventory may meet a point of even lower demand, at a certain threshold. Demand is very flexible, especially when markets pulled in just about everyone willing and able to pay higher prices.

Low stock...rightmove lists over 1Million properties.

Stock is high...prices are high...government intervention is HIGH.

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Low stock...rightmove lists over 1Million properties.

Stock is high...prices are high...government intervention is HIGH.

I think the last banner on Rightmove I looked at a few weeks ago, said "over 850,000 properties for sale" so if it's over 1m now, that would be a little something.

Recent articles suggesting inventory on market at multi-year lows. Rarely ever a house up for sale on any of the many road I'm interested in buying a home, and of course, when one does come up, always at a blisteringly high asking price. We need a drop of in buyers able and willing to meet high/higher prices, and more sellers at the margin, feeling the need to sell.

Maybe low rates, QE, and other stimulus has kept owners confident for many years, but attrition of the market is due to catch up with them. Just one of many global triggers that could set it about, including a slow down in prime US over-heated markets, or the taper.

There are fewer homes for sale in Britain than you think

http://moneyweek.com/merryns-blog/there-are-fewer-homes-for-sale-in-britain-than-you-think-12901/

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