Many People Very Worried: Cannot Sell Their Properties.

[fatfreddie]

Short answer - yes.

BTW market most emphatically did NOT bottom out in 1990. 1994-5 is the correct answer.

It bottomed out briefly after dropping 89. The summer of 90 was supposed to be the upturn. Interest rates and the recession got in the way. It then nosedived. I was refering the above 90 as where we are now except one big difference the USA is in dire straits this in effect will make it a Global Recession in turn a Depression. Apols for the confusion.

[eric pebble]

I still think that once it starts it will all happen within 18 months and probably quicker. I think the fact that this is a global bubble and our Media will one day be full of stories about house price falls in places like the US, Oz, Spain, etc, which will panic people.

I also think that his medium, the Internet, will have a big impact. It did not exist in the last UK HPC nor with the HPC in Japan.

Btw, I think it has started.

Who knows 'Tulip: I see the VI's have been hard at it this weekend in the newspapers - e.g. Sunday Times - talking about market "stabilised"/"Turned the Corner" etc etc. What a load of b*LL*cks....

Edited November 27, 2005 by eric pebble

[The Masked Tulip]

Who knows 'Tulip: I see the VI's have been hard at it this weekend in the newspapers - e.g. Sunday Times - talking about market "stabilised"/"Turned the Corner" etc etc.

We know how to take 'em out, spread the word. Get on the wire to every airbase around the world and tell them how to bring those sons of bitches down! - Independence Day ... or something like that!

[eric pebble]

We know how to take 'em out, spread the word. Get on the wire to every airbase around the world and tell them how to bring those sons of bitches down! - Independence Day ... or something like that!

You've forced me to laugh 'Tulip - & I'm having a TERRIBLE attack of the flu......

[eric pebble]

Does anyone remember the market bottoming out in 1990. Great time to buy. I think we are at this stage of the market now. We are on the verge of a global recession so Alarm bells are ringing again. Compare property prices in 1990 to those now, also in respective to wages etc its frightening. Also there are more investment property owners than we have ever had in the developed world UK, Ireland, USA, Australia, NZ. Property prices are way there are in the developed world due to the new breed of inexperienced investor. You used to see them at auctions upto a year ago. The frightening thing at record low interest rates "Repossesions" are on the cards already . I honestly can't predict how low property would go if we have a major global recession. Some predictions Dow could drop from 12000 to 2000 if this was the case how low could property go....I really think its really different this time minimum 30 % in some cases 50 %. There was talk in the States in some areas hitting 10% of their original value. Its this too riculous to be true ?

Yes - but you could argue the market just went to "normal" - i.e. people realised they should not be forced by the VI;s and all their spin and rip-off bull-sh*t to pay more than 3 - 3.5 x salary for a roof over their heads. SIMPLE!!!

[Michael]

I was at a meeting in the Armouries in Leeds last week and before the business we were chatting about the mono culture of 2 bed flats that has sprung up around the museum. Quite a few looked empty, all the shops were unlet, little work going on the cleared sites at the top end of the canal basin. We were discussing the chance of a HPC especially with the 2 bed flats when one of the other people around the table said she understood fully as her house had been on the market all year, slowly chasing the market down, a few near misses and now nothing, no viewings or offers. She thought she would take the house off the market and try a new agent in the spring and had been quite shocked by the conversation she had heard.

There will be a huge slump in this inner city new build market.............however tame the slump is generally..and it will be worst in places like the Royal Armouries because of the sheer number of flats being built..........To ask as much for a new build flat there as for a semi in a nice suburb is insane...

[othello]

Yes,but..... No Forced Sellers = No Crash.

HI

I do not agree that you have to have forced sellers for an HPC to start. It just needs people to wake up and smell the coffee. Many could sell at -25% and still make a handsome profit and trade up at a similar discount. I think the day will dawn when realism sets in and prices will slide rapidly downwards.

[BearLite]

HI

I do not agree that you have to have forced sellers for an HPC to start. It just needs people to wake up and smell the coffee. Many could sell at -25% and still make a handsome profit and trade up at a similar discount. I think the day will dawn when realism sets in and prices will slide rapidly downwards.

I'd agree with that too. I have a flat that is overpriced for a ftb. Quite happily accept less if it means we will have less of a debt on buying a house. Holding firm waiting for sentiment to change and the slide to occur.

[eric pebble]

There will be a huge slump in this inner city new build market.............however tame the slump is generally..and it will be worst in places like the Royal Armouries because of the sheer number of flats being built..........To ask as much for a new build flat there as for a semi in a nice suburb is insane...

agree 100%.

[eric pebble]

[quote name=othello' date='Nov 28 2005, 03:55 PM' post='243100]

HI

I do not agree that you have to have forced sellers for an HPC to start. It just needs people to wake up and smell the coffee. Many could sell at -25% and still make a handsome profit and trade up at a similar discount. I think the day will dawn when realism sets in and prices will slide rapidly downwards.

Exactly right Othello! It is amazing the greed out there.... people who've made £350k want to make £400k profit or else...!

[eric pebble]

There will be a huge slump in this inner city new build market.............however tame the slump is generally..and it will be worst in places like the Royal Armouries because of the sheer number of flats being built..........To ask as much for a new build flat there as for a semi in a nice suburb is insane...

Yes - and look all along the South Coast of England - Sussex - Hants and Bournmouth -: hundreds of unsold 2 bed flats.....

Edited November 29, 2005 by eric pebble

[eric pebble]

The best summary explanation, from Business Week: "Today's housing prices are predicated on an impossible combination: the strong growth in income and asset values of a strong economy, plus the ultra-low rates of a weak economy. Either the economy's long-term prospects will get worse or rates will rise. In either scenario, housing will weaken. Caveat emptor."

Spot on. But - it seem s the world is JUSt just beginning to wake up to the SCAM of UK House prices..... looking at HPC today...... Bring it on!!

[slinky]

Asking prices can definately be insulting. And I think if the asking price is insulting then they should expect cheeky offers. Except that it still takes quite a brass neck to do so. Its not easy in practice. We put in a crash factored offer on a property that had been around for coming up to two years. I can't tell you how rude the estate agent sounded on the phone. Immediate outraged rejection by vendors. They did not seek to negotiate at all. I know that the offer we made was one that made financial sense, and it was a pretty hefty sum, and yet we were made to feel like dregs for having dared to do so.

I have no sympathy for vendors who say that they have reduced the asking by 10-20% yet can't sell. Thats already factored in in the exorbitant asking prices. Its the next 20% that they need to drop to get the thing shifted in my view.

That said it only takes one person to buy a property and I keep seeing vendors lucking out and hitting the house sale jackpot. Its a risky strategy though.

[The Masked Tulip]

I think the TV News being non-stop, yesterday and today, about the pensions crisis will begin to get an awful lot of people worried.

[Guest Riser]

I think the TV News being non-stop, yesterday and today, about the pensions crisis will begin to get an awful lot of people worried.

I suspect many will be left scratching their heads next week when Blair gives away our EU rebate, how can we afford to be giving billions away when we can't afford to support pensioners in future. Brown is responsible for peoples reluctance to invest in pensions, his tax raid on the pension companies caused a crisis in pension funds and the introduction of means testing penalises those that have saved for retirement:

Consumer confidence lowest since Iraq war

The figures suggest consumer confidence remains at its lowest level since March 2003, when the index fell to -10.

Consumer spending over the Christmas season will be key in determining the next move in interest rates. David Walton, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, which sets interest rates, told The Times that "keeping a close eye on the strength of household spending over this Christmas period [is] ... going to be quite important".

Blair 'to surrender' on rebate

Blair 'to surrender' on rebate

04:20am 30th November 2005

Tony Blair is preparing to put parts of Britain's £3.2 billion EU rebate up for grabs even if farm subsidies are not cut, according to reports.

The Prime Minister has said talks about the rebate, won by Margaret Thatcher in 1984, can only come when reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is also discussed.

But Mr Blair is said to now be ready to split it into the parts that can be defended as "fair" because of the CAP, and others which are less easy to justify.

Elements earmarked for "adjustment" will be discussed at an EU leaders' summit in Brussels on December 15 and 16, even if French President Jacques Chirac does not give ground on the CAP, according to the Daily Telegraph.

The Prime Minister is under intense pressure to secure a deal on the 2007-2013 European Union budget before Britain's EU presidency runs out at the end of the year.

France has so far resisted calls for cuts in the agricultural subsidies enjoyed by its farmers.

And the UK is under pressure from other countries to surrender the rebate.

Now Downing Street and the Foreign Office are reportedly finalising plans to surrender ground by conceding that enlargement means parts of the payback should go.

Edited November 30, 2005 by Riser

[bob monkhouse]

Went to W London last night - met up with various friends - and a few couples from outside London.

There were no less than SIX couples who - after being very cautious to talk about it initially - ended up talking in hurried way - were really really anxious and fed up - all had been trying to sell their properties in and around London for at least a year - in some cases over 18 months!! All had nightmare stories to tell of bad tenants, massive rent voids etc. - 3 couples had moved out of London in last 12-20 months - and bought in various places including West Country - long ago had realised London is a hateful place - and all had [in some cases tried without success] rented out London properties and made the move - many helped along by inheritance/money from granny in varying amounts.

They had, in all cases, spent large sums on re-furbishments/re-building etc etc. - thinking that they would easily sell their London pads at massive profit - and thus keep cash flow nice and sweet....... WELL - this has turned out NOT to be the case at all!! Just NOT ABLE TO SELL - even with 10-20% [or even more] "discounts"..... AND they are STILL trying to get rid of them - with NO SIGN of success - "things are worse than ever now - it's all gone dead" - and are really really worried now - as money problem begins to bite..... Still paying out all those nasty bills on the properties..... especially very nasty sizeable Council Taxes....[on 2 properties of course - London and the "country"...] - so things are NOT good....

One couple there trying to sell their 3/4 bed place in Somerset - absolutely NO bites at all for over a year!! - despite HUGE decrease on asking price..... c £55k!!!

THey all sat there despondently - relating how they all knew many many others who are in the same boat - all over the UK -- and - get this - they were saying "All those things you read/hear in the newspapers/radio/tv about the "Recovering" "Stable" market are just plain "LIES" - "d'you know!" - "It is all made up you know" said one of the ladies who until now all her life had just believed everything she reads in the press - she avidly reads all those horrendous "Property" supplements - - "I'ts just propoganda" she said!!!! I sat there - and said to her - "Marge - did you always think it was all true - all that guff in the press - endless stuff every day/weekend - endless endless drivel about the property prices "only going up" [etc. etc.] -- and she went silent for a bit - and I gently told her - it has been total CR@P for years and years - all trotted out by PR Agents and the Vested Interests.......

Her face.... as it dawned on her that perhaps she had been a schmuck.......... What a worried lot of people - a bit sad. I just didn't have the heart to tell them it's even WORSE than they think.... Plus see - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=19559 - and here - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=19210 - tells us that things ain't good at all out there....

More anecdotes eh....

[Guest Winners and Losers]

I'm not so sure anymore?? Just saw the flat that I sold in London in 2002 for 180,00 (must have been mad!), has sold in July for 235,000 - I cant believe it sold for so much if the market is so bad. Surely they could have knocked a bit off? It was only on for 237,500. I took a lower offer than that when I sold in 2002! Its impossible to get it right!

Went to W London last night - met up with various friends - and a few couples from outside London.

There were no less than SIX couples who - after being very cautious to talk about it initially - ended up talking in hurried way - were really really anxious and fed up - all had been trying to sell their properties in and around London for at least a year - in some cases over 18 months!! All had nightmare stories to tell of bad tenants, massive rent voids etc. - 3 couples had moved out of London in last 12-20 months - and bought in various places including West Country - long ago had realised London is a hateful place - and all had [in some cases tried without success] rented out London properties and made the move - many helped along by inheritance/money from granny in varying amounts.

They had, in all cases, spent large sums on re-furbishments/re-building etc etc. - thinking that they would easily sell their London pads at massive profit - and thus keep cash flow nice and sweet....... WELL - this has turned out NOT to be the case at all!! Just NOT ABLE TO SELL - even with 10-20% [or even more] "discounts"..... AND they are STILL trying to get rid of them - with NO SIGN of success - "things are worse than ever now - it's all gone dead" - and are really really worried now - as money problem begins to bite..... Still paying out all those nasty bills on the properties..... especially very nasty sizeable Council Taxes....[on 2 properties of course - London and the "country"...] - so things are NOT good....

One couple there trying to sell their 3/4 bed place in Somerset - absolutely NO bites at all for over a year!! - despite HUGE decrease on asking price..... c £55k!!!

THey all sat there despondently - relating how they all knew many many others who are in the same boat - all over the UK -- and - get this - they were saying "All those things you read/hear in the newspapers/radio/tv about the "Recovering" "Stable" market are just plain "LIES" - "d'you know!" - "It is all made up you know" said one of the ladies who until now all her life had just believed everything she reads in the press - she avidly reads all those horrendous "Property" supplements - - "I'ts just propoganda" she said!!!! I sat there - and said to her - "Marge - did you always think it was all true - all that guff in the press - endless stuff every day/weekend - endless endless drivel about the property prices "only going up" [etc. etc.] -- and she went silent for a bit - and I gently told her - it has been total CR@P for years and years - all trotted out by PR Agents and the Vested Interests.......

Her face.... as it dawned on her that perhaps she had been a schmuck.......... What a worried lot of people - a bit sad. I just didn't have the heart to tell them it's even WORSE than they think.... Plus see - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=19559 - and here - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=19210 - tells us that things ain't good at all out there....

I went to car dealer and took a car for a test drive about 2 months ago. It was 4995. The salesman said 'it would walk of the showroom floor in a matter of days'. Been burned too many times to be swayed. Just saw it in the paper - reduced by 500 from 5495 to 4995 - ha ha ha.

One of my brothers walked into a car show room to buy a car, he had no car to exchange and with £2000 pound of show price PX'ing any old banger he promptly hands over bankers draft at full asking price. Muppet!

[foxytrader]

I'm not so sure anymore?? Just saw the flat that I sold in London in 2002 for 180,00 (must have been mad!), has sold in July for 235,000 - I cant believe it sold for so much if the market is so bad. Surely they could have knocked a bit off? It was only on for 237,500. I took a lower offer than that when I sold in 2002! Its impossible to get it right!

I went to car dealer and took a car for a test drive about 2 months ago. It was 4995. The salesman said 'it would walk of the showroom floor in a matter of days'. Been burned too many times to be swayed. Just saw it in the paper - reduced by 500 from 5495 to 4995 - ha ha ha.

It is possible that your flat was something particularly special W+L but to be honest I never look at the prices of anything I have sold and taken a profit on or sold and lost money on. You can never get out at the top of a market or buy at the absolute bottom. In the words of Warren Buffett "leave a little for the next guy". This market as with any other is a game of reverse pass-the-parcel - you just DONT want to be holding the parcel when it blows up in your face.

[eric pebble]

I'm not so sure anymore?? Just saw the flat that I sold in London in 2002 for 180,00 (must have been mad!), has sold in July for 235,000 - I cant believe it sold for so much if the market is so bad. Surely they could have knocked a bit off? It was only on for 237,500. I took a lower offer than that when I sold in 2002! Its impossible to get it right!

I went to car dealer and took a car for a test drive about 2 months ago. It was 4995. The salesman said 'it would walk of the showroom floor in a matter of days'. Been burned too many times to be swayed. Just saw it in the paper - reduced by 500 from 5495 to 4995 - ha ha ha.

I've talked to all sorts over the last 2 weeks or so: All of them - whether builders, electricians, traders of all sorts - shopkeepers, small business people -- ALL of them said they were REALLY scared - because - busienss is VERY VERY slow - dropping like a stone -- and they all agree much of the reason for this is simple: the UK Housing "market" is absurd: Their children and many many of those in thir 20/s, 30's AND 40's - just cannot and WILL NOT pay the stupid prices beeing asked........ AND - it is just a MATTER OF TIME - ..... the whole thing is teetering on the edge... and it is painfully slow - like slow slow motion.... but to buy a house now without a 40% discoundt OR MORE - would be STUPID -- becasue it ain't gonna be worth anything like it's "worth" today for years and years and years.......

[Guest Winners and Losers]

Very alturistic of you indeed FT. But, last time I chekced, no-one was leaving anything for me as "the next guy". Its all take take take, dog eat dog. Next time I'll be holding out for every penny! That said, they did turn the small second bedroom (lodged between main bedroom and bathroom miles down the corridor, into a kitchen, hence making the large kitchen a second double bedroom but leaving the only access to the garden via the bedroom), so that had to spend some on it. Just wish that I'd done it first. Then stupid me buys a house in Australia (by the way the HPC is about 12mths ahead of UK)! Its on its way, dont worry! Those muppets that bought that flat for 235 (I bought it for 65 in 1997!), have been hoodwinked!

It is possible that your flat was something particularly special W+L but to be honest I never look at the prices of anything I have sold and taken a profit on or sold and lost money on. You can never get out at the top of a market or buy at the absolute bottom. In the words of Warren Buffett "leave a little for the next guy". This market as with any other is a game of reverse pass-the-parcel - you just DONT want to be holding the parcel when it blows up in your face.

[eric pebble]

Very alturistic of you indeed FT. But, last time I chekced, no-one was leaving anything for me as "the next guy". Its all take take take, dog eat dog. Next time I'll be holding out for every penny! That said, they did turn the small second bedroom (lodged between main bedroom and bathroom miles down the corridor, into a kitchen, hence making the large kitchen a second double bedroom but leaving the only access to the garden via the bedroom), so that had to spend some on it. Just wish that I'd done it first. Then stupid me buys a house in Australia (by the way the HPC is about 12mths ahead of UK)! Its on its way, dont worry! Those muppets that bought that flat for 235 (I bought it for 65 in 1997!), have been hoodwinked!

Yes - and despite what you hear/see/read in the "meediah" -- prices have sunk anything from 10-25% in MANY cases all over the UK....... BUT - this is just ignored and Denied by the VI's.......

[eric pebble]

Fair point.

But what about a forced SALE (not seller)? Is this different?

there'll be LOADS of forced sellers now --!! Now that dear old Gordy's taken away the prop/sipp....

[Guest horace]

> eric pebble

`I've talked to all sorts over the last 2 weeks or so: All of them - whether builders, electricians, traders of all sorts - shopkeepers, small business people -- ALL of them said they were REALLY scared.....`

I am amazed at your social circle.

I expect that your observations extend from J of G to Lands End.

Your piffle is in my opinion is beyond the pale.

horace

get a life

Edited December 10, 2005 by horace

[eric pebble]

> eric pebble

`I've talked to all sorts over the last 2 weeks or so: All of them - whether builders, electricians, traders of all sorts - shopkeepers, small business people -- ALL of them said they were REALLY scared.....`

I am amazed at your social circle.

I expect that your observations extend from J of G to Lands End.

Your piffle is in my opinion is beyond the pale.

horace

get a life

Horace -- [i love your name - it's so grim!] - I just adore your posts - you remind me of Droopy - that cartoon character!

[Yogi]

All sounds good, but... I have been visiting this site for about 2 years now, back in the days of Evil Sam etc... Back then people were saying that the crash is just around the corner, but here I am 2 years later and still not being able to buy a house. The difference now is that people on here think it is happening now, but I cannot see it happening yet. I have been house hunting for a few months now as I have been wondering if thre is any point in waiting any longer. Properties still seem to be selling to me, and there dont seem to me many new ones going on the market. Am I missing something? I want a crash as much as you lot but I'm starting to doubt it will happen, but also dont want to make the biggest financial mistake of my life, which is exactly what I was worrying about 2 years ago and at this rate will be still worrying and waiting in another 2 years. Dont know what my point it actually! Just thought I'd chip in!