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whynow

Thar She Blowwwssss

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Carney's Canada is already sinking, there doesn't seem to be a way out of the next HPC, so just how far will it fall and when will it go?

When?

American tapering stops as economy slows without it, gold goes up, rates go up, EM failing, millions caught out in their mortgages forced to sell - mid 2015. Too early/

How far will London fall and how far will the UK fall?

Parts of London, horrible parts, like Sydenham, Charlton, Crystal Palace are up 40% in a year - prices down by at least that, possibly more with all the HTB people losing their deposits and selling out to avoid the sky high mortgages. 40-50% London, ranging across the UK.

What are your predictions and when?

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QE to be resumed, no change in house prices.

Yeah, I find myself checking in here less and less these days. No reflection on the quality of advice and posts by other people, but there will be no HPC and I won't be buying, so it's a mute point now.

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So there is nothing else that saving up and having money can lead to except sitting inside a house?

Probably, but as far as investments go I have no idea where to put my savings. Don't trust pensions, shares/bitcoin/fracking - wouldn't know where to begin.

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Probably, but as far as investments go I have no idea where to put my savings. Don't trust pensions, shares/bitcoin/fracking - wouldn't know where to begin.

Probably any of those would be a safer bet than UK property now ? (slightly kidding, but why lose it in an overpriced house when you could hang on to it and try to build up you pot, renting cheaply in the meantime?)

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If you are assuming the Fed will stop tapering and QE will continue over here then you are assuming that they are willing to destroy bond holders i.e. the pension and insurance industries rather than the gentle raping they have endured so far. I don't think so. QE has been tried, it has failed. No point in inflicting more damage.

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Yeah, I find myself checking in here less and less these days. No reflection on the quality of advice and posts by other people, but there will be no HPC and I won't be buying, so it's a mute point now.

There doesn't have to be a crash......it all revolves now about the wisdom in buying and the size of rents that can be collected.....the laws to protect the disadvantaged to maintain sweetness and peace. ;)

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QE to be resumed, no change in house prices.

We follow the US. They seem hell bent on continuing tapering so that will end this year and then, because their economy's in reasonable shape and they've had their HPC their rates will start rising.

As ever we have no choice but to follow (with a discreet lag to pretend we have something approaching control) and that will be that for house prices.

There will be concerted efforts by the government to stop the inevitable so that they can demonstrate that it's not "their fault", help to buy 3, 4, 5 etc., mortgage relief put in place to stop a tsunami of repossessions but that will all be pure ****-covering; the only way is down.

It will get continually talked up by the VIs but as nobody will be able to afford to combine current asking prices with higher mortgage rates it will go down big time, starting when the US does its first rate rise.

Bye bye.

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We follow the US. They seem hell bent on continuing tapering so that will end this year and then, because their economy's in reasonable shape and they've had their HPC their rates will start rising.

As ever we have no choice but to follow (with a discreet lag to pretend we have something approaching control) and that will be that for house prices.

There will be concerted efforts by the government to stop the inevitable so that they can demonstrate that it's not "their fault", help to buy 3, 4, 5 etc., mortgage relief put in place to stop a tsunami of repossessions but that will all be pure ****-covering; the only way is down.

It will get continually talked up by the VIs but as nobody will be able to afford to combine current asking prices with higher mortgage rates it will go down big time, starting when the US does its first rate rise.

Bye bye.

That's how I see it, so I'm hoping to hang on where I am for a couple of years and trade up with IR higher and prices lower.

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We follow the US. They seem hell bent on continuing tapering so that will end this year and then, because their economy's in reasonable shape and they've had their HPC their rates will start rising.

As ever we have no choice but to follow (with a discreet lag to pretend we have something approaching control) and that will be that for house prices.

There will be concerted efforts by the government to stop the inevitable so that they can demonstrate that it's not "their fault", help to buy 3, 4, 5 etc., mortgage relief put in place to stop a tsunami of repossessions but that will all be pure ****-covering; the only way is down.

It will get continually talked up by the VIs but as nobody will be able to afford to combine current asking prices with higher mortgage rates it will go down big time, starting when the US does its first rate rise.

Bye bye.

Nice. I feel uplifted after reading that.

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We follow the US. They seem hell bent on continuing tapering so that will end this year and then, because their economy's in reasonable shape and they've had their HPC their rates will start rising.

As ever we have no choice but to follow (with a discreet lag to pretend we have something approaching control) and that will be that for house prices.

There will be concerted efforts by the government to stop the inevitable so that they can demonstrate that it's not "their fault", help to buy 3, 4, 5 etc., mortgage relief put in place to stop a tsunami of repossessions but that will all be pure ****-covering; the only way is down.

It will get continually talked up by the VIs but as nobody will be able to afford to combine current asking prices with higher mortgage rates it will go down big time, starting when the US does its first rate rise.

Bye bye.

+1

The US has largely had its House Price Crash.

QE was designed to protect its banks and businesses from the fall out from that process.

Anyone who thinks they are going to continue the process to prop up UK property values is simply delusional

The fact that the UK government and populace merely used the QE opportunity to reinflate its housing bubble is our problem not something the rest of the planet is going to worry about unless they have been dumb enough to invest in the London Ponzi.

The sell signal was Abramovich largely giving up expanding his London property and deciding to spend his cash in New York

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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+1

The US has largely had its House Price Crash.

QE was designed to protect its banks and businesses from the fall out from that process.

Anyone who thinks they are going to continue the process to prop up UK property values is simply delusional

The fact that the UK government and populace merely used the QE opportunity to reinflate its housing bubble is our problem not something the rest of the planet is going to worry about unless they have been dumb enough to invest in the London Ponzi.

The sell signal was Abramovich largely giving up expanding his London property and deciding to spend his cash in New York

Many overleveraged sheeple will be clinging to some dimly imagined version of this?

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That's how I see it, so I'm hoping to hang on where I am for a couple of years and trade up with IR higher and prices lower.

Nice. I feel uplifted after reading that.

+1

The US has largely had its House Price Crash.

QE was designed to protect its banks and businesses from the fall out from that process.

Anyone who thinks they are going to continue the process to prop up UK property values is simply delusional

The fact that the UK government and populace merely used the QE opportunity to reinflate its housing bubble is our problem not something the rest of the planet is going to worry about unless they have been dumb enough to invest in the London Ponzi.

The sell signal was Abramovich largely giving up expanding his London property and deciding to spend his cash in New York

Here to help tiphat.gif

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We follow the US. They seem hell bent on continuing tapering so that will end this year and then, because their economy's in reasonable shape and they've had their HPC their rates will start rising.

As ever we have no choice but to follow (with a discreet lag to pretend we have something approaching control) and that will be that for house prices.

There will be concerted efforts by the government to stop the inevitable so that they can demonstrate that it's not "their fault", help to buy 3, 4, 5 etc., mortgage relief put in place to stop a tsunami of repossessions but that will all be pure ****-covering; the only way is down.

It will get continually talked up by the VIs but as nobody will be able to afford to combine current asking prices with higher mortgage rates it will go down big time, starting when the US does its first rate rise.

Bye bye.

They cannot stop QE, it is like a drug addiction, if you tax people and sack people you will become unpopular, QE will not make you unpopular except with the Chinese.

I give it 3 months after they stop QE for them to restart.

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They cannot stop QE, it is like a drug addiction, if you tax people and sack people you will become unpopular, QE will not make you unpopular except with the Chinese.

I give it 3 months after they stop QE for them to restart.

QE is not working, the only thing that will make the PTB popular now is wage increases, big ones, unfortunately not going to happen in any meaningful way though.

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We follow the US. They seem hell bent on continuing tapering so that will end this year and then, because their economy's in reasonable shape and they've had their HPC their rates will start rising.

As ever we have no choice but to follow (with a discreet lag to pretend we have something approaching control) and that will be that for house prices.

There will be concerted efforts by the government to stop the inevitable so that they can demonstrate that it's not "their fault", help to buy 3, 4, 5 etc., mortgage relief put in place to stop a tsunami of repossessions but that will all be pure ****-covering; the only way is down.

It will get continually talked up by the VIs but as nobody will be able to afford to combine current asking prices with higher mortgage rates it will go down big time, starting when the US does its first rate rise.

Bye bye.

My thoughts exactly, we followed them down and we'll follow them up again. My guess is that we'll track them with about a three month lag and our IR will end up to within half a point of where theirs does. But that's a guess, not any type of prediction.

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My thoughts exactly, we followed them down and we'll follow them up again. My guess is that we'll track them with about a three month lag and our IR will end up to within half a point of where theirs does. But that's a guess, not any type of prediction.

I think the history of the relationship between US and UK interest rates makes your 'guess' a pretty sound one.

global-interest-rates-jan10.gif

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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They cannot stop QE, it is like a drug addiction, if you tax people and sack people you will become unpopular, QE will not make you unpopular except with the Chinese.

I give it 3 months after they stop QE for them to restart.

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+1

The US has largely had its House Price Crash.

Tell them that at www.doctorhousingbubble.com

New peaks and attributed to the cash-buyers + institutional investors, with very high earning younger people totally priced out in California.

Parts of London, horrible parts, like Sydenham, Charlton, Crystal Palace are up 40% in a year

The joke of it is, it's not bringing out much by way of supply onto the market. Hyperinflation on hyperinflation house prices. Owners must be expecting even more HPI, for the moment.

It's not been limited to London either. New peaks for mid-range houses in South Manchester, although definite weakness at the upper end.

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Carney's Canada is already sinking, there doesn't seem to be a way out of the next HPC, so just how far will it fall and when will it go?

Not to my observation - house prices are, sadly, continuing to rise around these parts.

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