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dinker

Climate Prediction From 2006

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"The freshwater boom is over. Our rivers are starting to run dry"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/oct/10/comment.water?CMP=twt_gu

Purely anecdotal, I know, and not very scientific, but the river at the bottom of my garden looks quite wet at the moment! I am in Somerset, BTW! I can't really remember 2006, but 2007 was pretty wet! :huh:

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Purely anecdotal, I know, and not very scientific, but the river at the bottom of my garden looks quite wet at the moment! I am in Somerset, BTW! I can't really remember 2006, but 2007 was pretty wet! :huh:

I'm surprised you can see the river under all that floodwater.

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I'm surprised you can see the river under all that floodwater.

I'm not in the "Levels", they are underwater! I only have a small river at the bottom of the garden. It's called the "Land Yeo"! I did check when I moved here! House built 1980, never been flooded, although I am on flat ground! Not too built-up round here so I guess the ground acts as a big sponge!

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Let's not forget the 'Children are not going to know what snow is..."

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

(from 2000)

May as well call it climatology or climatevoyance.

I went to school with people who didn't know about snow. They were from Sri-Lanka! :huh:

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Bf_gHDnCAAEDfYR.jpg

There appears to be some kind of weird zombie type character with an old 405-line TV for a head and a large turd in the gusset of his wet-suit heading towards your property.

I'd grab your snorkel and sneak out the back door now if I was you like mate...

XYY

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There appears to be some kind of weird zombie type character with an old 405-line TV for a head and a large turd in the gusset of his wet-suit heading towards your property.

I'd grab your snorkel and sneak out the back door now if I was you like mate...

XYY

Aye, that's just Winnet-Man, and Nettie Kid! Sunderland's finest! :blink:

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I went to school with people who didn't know about snow. They were from Sri-Lanka! :huh:

Rings a bell that 'Sri-Lanka' place with no snow, and I'm sure they used to call it something else years ago.

Ah yes, I've remembered - wasn't it Windscale...?

;)

XYY

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Aye, that's just Winnet-Man, and Nettie Kid! Sunderland's finest! :blink:

Sunderland would be fine in a flood, what with all them benefit spongers to soak it up...

XYY

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"The freshwater boom is over. Our rivers are starting to run dry"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/oct/10/comment.water?CMP=twt_gu

not a very good scientist then is he.

seem to remeber malthusian psychology was all the rage about 100 years ago.

..according to that we should have culled the population at around the 1 billion mark.

we as a race have successfully fed and watered 3 times that amount since( the other 50% is work in progress)

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not a very good scientist then is he.

seem to remeber malthusian psychology was all the rage about 100 years ago.

..according to that we should have culled the population at around the 1 billion mark.

we as a race have successfully fed and watered 3 times that amount since( the other 50% is work in progress)

I think left wing scientists are often just economically naive

They don't realize that exploiting existing resources helps develop wealth and by implication fosters technology and capital that will solve these problems of scarcity in the future

So water will be more expensive in real terms in the future? But by using the economically beneficiant options we currently have we will be much richer anyway so be able to afford it

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"The freshwater boom is over. Our rivers are starting to run dry"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/oct/10/comment.water?CMP=twt_gu

The ressurection of this seems to be due to a tweet from Nigel Lawson's weightily-named Global Warming Policy Foundation earlier today. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Warming_Policy_Foundation/ , http://www.thegwpf.org/ , https://twitter.com/TheGWPF). The tweet failed to mention that the story was from 2006 ...

Looking at the front page of their website, they appear to making the most of the floods as an opportunity to ridicule the Environment Ageny.

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Climate prediction from 1961...

Quite a decent film directed by Val Guest.

They even used a real newspaper office with many of the scenes being shot in the old Daily Express building on Fleet Street with the real editor Arthur Christiansen as one of the cast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_the_Earth_Caught_Fire

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Christiansen

Poor Janet Munro died quite young. Shame because the scenes with her in that film were literally quite hot

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seem to remeber malthusian psychology was all the rage about 100 years ago.

..according to that we should have culled the population at around the 1 billion mark.

we as a race have successfully fed and watered 3 times that amount since( the other 50% is work in progress)

Coincidentally, I started thinking back to Paul Ehrlich whilst reading that Monbiot piece

Ehrlich's Malthusian predictions of global famines in the 70s and 80s didn't come to pass but apparently, according to a wiki page I've just read...

The Ehrlichs stand by the basic ideas in the book, stating in 2009 that "perhaps the most serious flaw in The Bomb was that it was much too optimistic about the future" and believe that it achieved their goals because "it alerted people to the importance of environmental issues and brought human numbers into the debate on the human future."

Quite a decent film directed by Val Guest.

I rate it even higher than decent, good even. The dialogue and acting are sparky and there's a nice sense of time and place.

On the opposite end of the thermometer, I remember Arthur C. Clarke's The Forgotten Enemy creeping me out. The prospect of the inevitable(?) return of the ice sheets still does.

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Coincidentally, I started thinking back to Paul Ehrlich whilst reading that Monbiot piece

Ehrlich's Malthusian predictions of global famines in the 70s and 80s didn't come to pass but apparently, according to a wiki page I've just read...

I rate it even higher than decent, good even. The dialogue and acting are sparky and there's a nice sense of time and place.

On the opposite end of the thermometer, I remember Arthur C. Clarke's The Forgotten Enemy creeping me out. The prospect of the inevitable(?) return of the ice sheets still does.

Yes, I remember that, the story made me shiver too. It was written back in the 50s, wasn't it? In those days, we knew that there had been ice ages in the past and assumed that the ice would return again in the future. There wasn't much understanding of the reasons they occurred though. It was only later that climatologists came to appreciate the critical role played by CO2 in amplifying small changes in solar input to produce large temperature swings.

The upshot of this is that there cannot be a return to ice age conditions with all the extra CO2 that we've added to the atmosphere. Even if we stopped emitting any more, it would take nature many thousands of years to absorb and bury it again. We've already more than averted the onset of the next ice age; we've ensured that it'll be a very long time before the next one.

Edit: His The Nine Billion Names of God was the creepiest though. I couldn't sleep after reading that as a lad. :unsure:

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Yes, I remember that, the story made me shiver too. It was written back in the 50s, wasn't it? In those days, we knew that there had been ice ages in the past and assumed that the ice would return again in the future. There wasn't much understanding of the reasons they occurred though. It was only later that climatologists came to appreciate the critical role played by CO2 in amplifying small changes in solar input to produce large temperature swings.

The upshot of this is that there cannot be a return to ice age conditions with all the extra CO2 that we've added to the atmosphere. Even if we stopped emitting any more, it would take nature many thousands of years to absorb and bury it again. We've already more than averted the onset of the next ice age; we've ensured that it'll be a very long time before the next one.

(without wanting to kick off another, parallel AGW discussion)

As I recall, back then, Clarke offered up cosmic dust as a mechanism. In the Day the Earth Caught Fire I recall it being nuclear testing/ changes in the Earth's tilt.

I quite like Scotland and it will be a shame when it gets ground into fine powder, again. So if human emissions delay the onset of the next ice age for a few thousand years that's a result afaic. And that's not me attempting, on the sly, to discount the possibility of things going too far the other way.

but then that can lead to the question of if we could 'dial in' and sustain an optimum mean global temperature what would that be? About the same as now? A bit warmer? A tad cooler?

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It was only later that climatologists came to appreciate the critical role played by CO2 in amplifying small changes in solar input to produce large temperature swings.

Probably because it doesn't. If it did, we wouldn't be here, because such positive feedbacks would have killed our ancestors millions of years ago.

The upshot of this is that there cannot be a return to ice age conditions with all the extra CO2 that we've added to the atmosphere. Even if we stopped emitting any more, it would take nature many thousands of years to absorb and bury it again. We've already more than averted the onset of the next ice age; we've ensured that it'll be a very long time before the next one.

Now you're really being silly.

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