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chronyx

Luck/seeing The Big Picture

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A lot of comment on here about people getting 'lucky' and buying at the right time etc.

I consider myself lucky NOT to have bought yet (The only reason it was put on hold was hours being cut and the word recession appearing in the news in 2009. I just thought "I'll leave it a few months and see what happens" 5 years ago.

I don't consider myself financially smart or savvy, just prudent. All I have is an ISA, a current account and a Zopa account. Oh, and 3 £20 silver coins. :lol:

A lot of you saw this coming from years back, though.

My question is, how, and what are your strategies for staying informed in the future?

I'm guessing it's not BBC news...

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Living in a cheap part of the country that can't fall much further! Better still move to a cheaper part of the world where there are still opportunities and hasn't been turned into one giant boomer theme park.

Edited by aSecureTenant

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A lot of comment on here about people getting 'lucky' and buying at the right time etc.

I consider myself lucky NOT to have bought yet (The only reason it was put on hold was hours being cut and the word recession appearing in the news in 2009. I just thought "I'll leave it a few months and see what happens" 5 years ago.

I don't consider myself financially smart or savvy, just prudent. All I have is an ISA, a current account and a Zopa account. Oh, and 3 £20 silver coins. :lol:

A lot of you saw this coming from years back, though.

My question is, how, and what are your strategies for staying informed in the future?

I'm guessing it's not BBC news...

what part of the country are you looking to buy in.

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what part of the country are you looking to buy in.

I live near Weybridge in Surrey but I'm not looking at buying now. There's not enough work and prices are batshit crazy.

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Wow 2 bed flats from £300k

I cant see how you will get on the property ladder unless you have a deposit £50k and earn about £70k per year.

He's not kidding folks :lol: my parents could not now afford to buy the place they bought in 1996.

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A lot of comment on here about people getting 'lucky' and buying at the right time etc.

I consider myself lucky NOT to have bought yet (The only reason it was put on hold was hours being cut and the word recession appearing in the news in 2009. I just thought "I'll leave it a few months and see what happens" 5 years ago.

I don't consider myself financially smart or savvy, just prudent. All I have is an ISA, a current account and a Zopa account. Oh, and 3 £20 silver coins. :lol:

A lot of you saw this coming from years back, though.

My question is, how, and what are your strategies for staying informed in the future?

I'm guessing it's not BBC news...

There`s no such thing and as unbiased news, so the best you can do is read as widely as you can and hope you don`t get too indoctrinated.

Many people make the mistake of seeking out news sources that pander to their prejudices and never bothering to dig deeper, so try to avoid that.

This book was off quoted in the old days here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds I found it useful in putting modern views and opinions in context.

Travel is also very good for getting a better perspective.

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There`s no such thing and as unbiased news, so the best you can do is read as widely as you can and hope you don`t get too indoctrinated.

Well I know I'm not indoctrinated- because the group all agree that I'm not. :D

You are spot on about the confirmation bias thing- google is worse than my mother at pandering to my own bias in terms of search results these days- it's very easy to get lost in a virtual echo chamber on line.

This will get worse smarter AI comes along that will be able to serve up even more of the brain candy we love to consume at just right intellectual temperature.

It's surely only a matter of time before we find ourselves halfway through an online conversation with some really 'sympatico' person only to discover that by some cruel quirk of the system we have been interacting with ourselves mediated through some freaky AI driven feedback loop.

:blink:

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I live near Weybridge in Surrey but I'm not looking at buying now. There's not enough work and prices are batshit crazy.

Cheer up. HPC in action there isn't it. No massive 2007+ reflation at all, according to many on here. Won't we think of those at the margin with jumbo mortgages, and not those who've had decades of pure runaway HPI.

£15m asking price 2012 http://www.dailymail...atest-hits.html

Relaunched at £13.75m in 2014 http://www.dailymail...-14million.html

Lennon bought the six bedroom property in Weybridge, Surrey, for £20,000 on July 15, 1964.

It’s changed hands several times since then, and last went on the market, with an asking price of £5.95 million, in 2006 and was sold in January 2007 for £5.8 million.

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There`s no such thing and as unbiased news, so the best you can do is read as widely as you can and hope you don`t get too indoctrinated.

Many people make the mistake of seeking out news sources that pander to their prejudices and never bothering to dig deeper, so try to avoid that.

This book was off quoted in the old days here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds I found it useful in putting modern views and opinions in context.

Travel is also very good for getting a better perspective.

Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds is in public domain

http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/pdf/mackaych2451824518-8.pdf

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Rental income of £260.00pcm

Which is less than I'm paying a social landlord

For a 1 bed.

Social landlord of mine just offered a 1 bed house for rent to a penisoner at £100 per week, local 2bed PRS housing goes for £70-90/week. My 1bed flat with the social landlord is £70/week soon to rise to £75/week.

Social landlords, so called 'affordable housing' providers shouldn't really be charging more than the PRS, but increasingly they are, and the government decrees that the rent should rise above inflation.

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For a 1 bed.

Social landlord of mine just offered a 1 bed house for rent to a penisoner at £100 per week, local 2bed PRS housing goes for £70-90/week. My 1bed flat with the social landlord is £70/week soon to rise to £75/week.

Social landlords, so called 'affordable housing' providers shouldn't really be charging more than the PRS, but increasingly they are, and the government decrees that the rent should rise above inflation.

So if you got a job at NMW pretty much over half your income would go on rent and council tax despite having a social landlord.

And if you drinked and smoked the rest pretty much all of it would go back to the Government.

I guess they should rename secure tenancies to 'premium rentals.' :lol:

..and they wonder why some can't be bothered to work.

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Prices are now crazy in Surrey, not sure if that was in fact the case in 2009. Prices were surely just troughing and it might not have been a bad time to buy.

Meanwhile, some areas of the North have yet to record any growth since the trough of 2009.

Been watching the market very carefully in the N Midlands and have consistently been a Bear and correctly called the market every year. However, I have difficulty sticking with that. For ten years the market has had a SSTC ratio stuck in the lower teens, so it was obvious there were no buyers. But surely bears must be aware of a sudden turn in the Market, it seems very similar to 2003 at the moment in terms of successful sales as a percentage of stock...maybe in the 30-40% range from say 15% for the last nine years.

Is it just me that has noticed a market awakening from a cataclysmic slump in the North?

Bears shouldn't be too complacent that prices in the North will fall forever.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Is it just me that has noticed a market awakening from a cataclysmic slump in the North?

Bears shouldn't be too complacent that prices in the North will fall forever.

Mixed bag in the North but up 15% in West Yorkshire where I live, but other parts of town have seen falls. I can only assume the volumes are low and a few big sales in one area skew the figures. Cheapest houses here in Huddersfield £32k Crosland Moor for a back to back.

Edited by aSecureTenant

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Mixed bag in the North but up 15% in West Yorkshire where I live, but other parts of town have seen falls. I can only assume the volumes are low and a few big sales in one area skew the figures. Cheapest houses here in Huddersfield £32k Crosland Moor for a back to back.

So long as Huddersfield bears aren't confused by the media thinking there has been a recent boom. There hasn't and wating for a crash seems very unlikely in these areas.

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So long as Huddersfield bears aren't confused by the media thinking there has been a recent boom. There hasn't and wating for a crash seems very unlikely in these areas.

http://www.examiner....ed-over-6685809

Loads of small stuff up for let. More likely to see a 'To Let' sign now than a 'For Sale' now.

Ex council flat went up for sale near me for a ludicrous £65k. Didn't sell, went up for rent

Edited by aSecureTenant

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Been watching the market very carefully in the N Midlands and have consistently been a Bear and correctly called the market every year. However, I have difficulty sticking with that. For ten years the market has had a SSTC ratio stuck in the lower teens, so it was obvious there were no buyers. But surely bears must be aware of a sudden turn in the Market, it seems very similar to 2003 at the moment in terms of successful sales as a percentage of stock...maybe in the 30-40% range from say 15% for the last nine years.

Is it just me that has noticed a market awakening from a cataclysmic slump in the North?

Bears shouldn't be too complacent that prices in the North will fall forever.

The market in northern Lincs seems very bizarre at the moment, some overpriced crap selling within 1-2 weeks of going on the market, but cheaper and arguably better houses in the same areas can be on the market for months or even years with no interest at all. Prices here per the Land Registry are on the up apparently, but my OH has had her house on the market for 6 months, dropped the asking price twice, not one single viewing.

Who is actually buying here to push the Land Reg figures up? Even the BTL investors I know around this area are skint!

Edited by Neil D Possitt

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A lot of comment on here about people getting 'lucky' and buying at the right time etc.

I consider myself lucky NOT to have bought yet (The only reason it was put on hold was hours being cut and the word recession appearing in the news in 2009. I just thought "I'll leave it a few months and see what happens" 5 years ago.

I don't consider myself financially smart or savvy, just prudent. All I have is an ISA, a current account and a Zopa account. Oh, and 3 £20 silver coins. :lol:

A lot of you saw this coming from years back, though.

My question is, how, and what are your strategies for staying informed in the future?

I'm guessing it's not BBC news...

Don't think many made 'astute investments', it is mostly a case of when you were born/stage of life. For example, my seven year elder brother, purchased a house when he met a girl and settled down. I planned to do the same, however, went to university, had a bit of a life and before I knew it, house prices had become un-affordable to me once I had met my future wife. The massive HPI between 1999-2004 was the undoing of most people now under 40. Ten years later and time is running out for those at the higher end of this due to mortgage length and sheer size of potential debt, even worse if you rely on the South East for your employment.

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The market in northern Lincs seems very bizarre at the moment, some overpriced crap selling within 1-2 weeks of going on the market, but cheaper and arguably better houses in the same areas can be on the market for months or even years with no interest at all. Prices here per the Land Registry are on the up apparently, but my OH has had her house on the market for 6 months, dropped the asking price twice, not one single viewing.

Who is actually buying here to push the Land Reg figures up? Even the BTL investors I know around this area are skint!

North Lincs will be the last place to see any pick up, it is in a rural cul de sac at the end of the line and good family houses in place like Alford and Louth have been camped on the market for years. But the Tsunami ripple that is currently ripping through the Home Counties and knocking on the door of the South Midlands (see Count of Nowhere's thread) will probably arrive with you eventually.

Guess some in the south would think you are looking at a gift horse in the mouth, ,prices at 20% off peak (still) and more like 40% in inflation adjusted terms. 9 years of box seat enjoyment for Bears in this area is looking in jeopardy from ill winds from the South. The Nottingham Market has changed beyond recognition since the New Year

Edited by crashmonitor

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