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The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

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And what happens now to Ukraine's debt? How much is Russia going to write off? Have they set the conversion rate from the Ukraine currency to the Russian one?

I am glad somebody is concerned about this.

All the geopolitics is a bit of a nonsense.

Russia isn't going to give this government a penny and has hiked the gas bill.

Ukraine is about to default on the previous 16bn loan from the IMF but expects another.

There's a lot of talk about 15bn from the EU, but it's over time and in different pots and, well, not clear at all.

Ukraine's PM says it needs 35bn a year for two years. He obviously thinks they're worth it.

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I'm sure the money will come flooding back once the crisis is over.

If I was a shady russian oligargh i think id have my money in physical notes and gold bars in my compound just outside moscow.

You get fack all interest on it so why leave it in an american bank?

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I am glad somebody is concerned about this.

All the geopolitics is a bit of a nonsense.

Russia isn't going to give this government a penny and has hiked the gas bill.

Ukraine is about to default on the previous 16bn loan from the IMF but expects another.

There's a lot of talk about 15bn from the EU, but it's over time and in different pots and, well, not clear at all.

Ukraine's PM says it needs 35bn a year for two years. He obviously thinks they're worth it.

I'd also speculate that large chunks of Eastern Ukraine will also seek to join Russia if the economic situation becomes dire. It seems someone is going to lose a lot of money with the break up of Ukraine and that appears to be the Western taxpayer who'll be giving a large chunk of cash to Putin and the bankers.

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I'd also speculate that large chunks of Eastern Ukraine will also seek to join Russia if the economic situation becomes dire. It seems someone is going to lose a lot of money with the break up of Ukraine and that appears to be the Western taxpayer who'll be giving a large chunk of cash to Putin and the bankers.

That's where I fear it'll all blow up, with Crimea it's just huffing and puffing from everyone in an area which I gather was only ever dubiously Ukranian anyway.

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I am glad somebody is concerned about this.

All the geopolitics is a bit of a nonsense.

Russia isn't going to give this government a penny and has hiked the gas bill.

Ukraine is about to default on the previous 16bn loan from the IMF but expects another.

There's a lot of talk about 15bn from the EU, but it's over time and in different pots and, well, not clear at all.

Ukraine's PM says it needs 35bn a year for two years. He obviously thinks they're worth it.

Crimea is creating its own Central Bank.

Funded with $30m from Putin.

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Crimea is creating its own Central Bank.

Funded with $30m from Putin.

Looks like a smart move by the Crimea. Not only will they be one of the few countires in Europe with secure energy (whilst of course turning the supply off to the rest of the Ukriane) but the Russians will throw money at them.

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Looks like a smart move by the Crimea. Not only will they be one of the few countires in Europe with secure energy (whilst of course turning the supply off to the rest of the Ukriane) but the Russians will throw money at them.

Cyprus on the Black Sea?

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Crimea adds its name to the list of countries that the EU has ignored the result of a referendum from (when said referendum doesn't give the answer the EU wants).

The list is getting quite long now

rearrange these words into a coherent phrase

the a democracy makes EU of mockery

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Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin - one of those targeted by US sanctions - said the measures would not affect those without assets abroad, Reuters reports. "Comrade Obama, and what will you do with those who have neither accounts nor property abroad? Or didn't you think of that?" he said on Twitter.

lol.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26612507

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Commentators in newspapers throughout Europe have warned of the long-term repercussions of the Crimean referendum. Jacques Schuster, writing in the Berlin-based newspaper Die Welt, says a military response can no longer be entirely ruled out.

Can anyone explain how a military response is even remotely feasible, when Russia is armed to the teeth with Nuclear weapons and state of the art missile systems (and more than prepared to use them)?

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Commentators in newspapers throughout Europe have warned of the long-term repercussions of the Crimean referendum. Jacques Schuster, writing in the Berlin-based newspaper Die Welt, says a military response can no longer be entirely ruled out.

Can anyone explain how a military response is even remotely feasible, when Russia is armed to the teeth with Nuclear weapons and state of the art missile systems (and more than prepared to use them)?

Yes, that's why it's insanely dangerous. The choice between "Russia does whatever the hell it feels like" and "nuclear war". Stick to Crimea and it'll blow over, but I can't say I'm feeling very confident that it will.

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Yes, that's why it's insanely dangerous. The choice between "Russia does whatever the hell it feels like" and "nuclear war". Stick to Crimea and it'll blow over, but I can't say I'm feeling very confident that it will.

they just had elections.

I think that should count for something.

Then again, we are not the World Police.

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they just had elections.

I think that should count for something.

If it doesn't spread any further and no-one attempts to stick their oars in anywhere else nearby.

Then again, we are not the World Police.

There isn't a World Police even though there needs to be (but there's no way of creating one), so we're left with a bunch of squabbling crooks.

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If it doesn't spread any further and no-one attempts to stick their oars in anywhere else nearby.

There isn't a World Police even though there needs to be (but there's no way of creating one), so we're left with a bunch of squabbling crooks.

team-america-world-police-1168-16x9-large.jpg?1357213936

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One things is for sure, this was all planned out months, years, if not decades before. Probably in the 1980's USSR staff colleges, in the nightmare situation of an unthinkable collapse of the mighty USSR, it would be wise to consider that your opponent's promises of non expansion are not sincere.

The Russian forces seem well kitted out and better trained than before, the size of Russia means the armoured groups can train and get outfitted for combat thousands of Kms from the Front. Tanks coming from the Urals on train carriages, one per carriage means fully loaded and fuelled 70,000+ kilograms (that's the same as a fully loaded/fuelled plane!). Remember also Russia is the only army (after WW2 Germany was defeated) to have experience of real manoeuvre warfare due to the vast amount of territory. (how easy is it to move an army 90 degrees?) Let alone 4 or 5 Armies together! Missile tech is a least 20 years ahead of the west (S-300 and S-400, Ashkont, etc) due to resources and R&D not in the conventional aviation area, or foolishly going down the Drone route for more than local or long distance recon.

Next move is on the Russian side, after the extremely weak US/EU response, hopefully there will be another round of talks. But the Poles,Lithuanians and Ukrainians are allegedly dusting off plans for a joint armoured brigade. I think securing the Polish border would probably be about the best that the west can hope for and maybe a UN agreed split of Ukraine and demilitarised zone.

New Armoured formation

The problem is the west is morally bankrupt after the Blair/Bush adventures in Iraq and shown to be impotent in Syria. At best a cold war two is inevitable and also the breakdown of globalisation, this has massive consequences for the next 50 years.

The move to watch out for is the same as the Germans suffered during the Bagration Operation with a thrust towards Kaliningrad, followed by a pause when they reached the Baltic Sea. (in WW2 this put pressure on Warsaw, then an uprising, now I guess UN negotiation on humanitarian grounds) The terrian is the same as 1941-45 and the routes to the West for Armour the same, avoid the Pripet Marshes in Belarus. Belarus needs keeping an eye on, they have already request Russian Fighter Jets to be based there to counter USAF F-16s moving to Poland and F-15s to Baltics. If they allow Russian amour groups free passage, then the Dniepr river can be crossed upstream of Kiev inside of Belarus. Expect airborne drop West of Kiev, amour link up via Belarus and/or a thrust through Lithuania to Kaliningrad, then a pause before UN renegotiation. Here is an old picture:-

1941

When dealing with a nuclear power, Cuban Misslile crisis is the only real equivalent. I found this Curtis Documentary linked from another thread interesting (or terrifying). The important thing from the documentary is that, humans are not predictable. Eventually JFK told the Russians retaliation will not be proportional, one missile from Cuba, expect total destruction, we send the whole lot. This ended the crisis, I'm not sure Obama is cut from the same cloth.....

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I think the precedence set by Kosovo is being curiously overlooked. Kosovo was a part of a sovereign state of Yugoslavia and the central government of Milosevic had reduced Kosovo's autonomy to limit its separatist ambitions - just as Crimea's autonomy had been reduced. As political instability took hold across the country, old inter-ethnic rivalries resurfaced in atrocities and reprisals. NATO decided to support Kosovan independence and took direct military action against the Yugoslav government without approval from the United Nations. It bombed Yugoslav targets for almost 3 months - something the Russians have not needed to do in Ukraine.

Finally Milosevic agreed to the presence of NATO troops in Kosovo. NATO called themselves 'peacekeepers'; the Russians clearly prefer the term 'civil defence units'. Whatever. The Ukraine crisis has been thankfully free of the large-scale movements of refugees that characterised Kosovo. In the immediate aftermath of conflict a conservative estimate of 65,000 ethnic Serbs fled Kosovo and it can only be hoped that such similar ethnic cleansing doesn't happen in Ukraine.

Eight years of nonsense 'interim administration' followed where Kosovo was effectively independent but still technically part of sovereign Yugoslavia. The Russians have clearly skipped this tedious bit. In 2008 Kosovo declared its independence and was recognised by the US, Poland, Turkey, Albania, Austria, France, Croatia, Germany, Italy, Taiwan and the UK. Most countries did not recognise it. Over the years more countries have recognised it as independent, although it still remains unrecognised by countries like Spain, China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Romania, Serbia, Russia and - ironically - Ukraine.

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State television presenter warns Russia could 'turn the US into radioactive dust'

..

"Russia is the only country in the world realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash," Kiselyov said standing in front of a large screen depicting a mushroom cloud produced by a nuclear explosion.

He also added that President Vladimir Putin is a much stronger leader than Barack Obama, pointing to opinion polls on his screen, and Americans know it.

"Americans themselves consider Putin to be a stronger leader than Obama," he said. "Why is Obama phoning Putin all the time and talking to him for hours on end?"

Helpful comments.

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-17/russia-hints-it-may-force-ukraine-default-may-ask-ukraine-its-20-billion-share-ex-so

Russia Hints It May Force Ukraine Into Default, "May Ask Ukraine For Its $20 Billion Share For Ex-Soviet Debt"

KYIV DEEMS THE ISSUE OF SOVIET-ERA DEBTS UNSETTLED, MOSCOW RESERVES THE RIGHT TO INSIST THAT UKRAINE REPAY $20 BILLION TO RUSSIA - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY

RUSSIA MAY ASK UKRAINE TO PAY ITS $20B SHARE FOR EX-SOVIET DEBT

And this would undoubtedly plunge the whole of the Ukraine into economic chaos.

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