The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

[frederico]

There is no way Putin will be pulling out of Crimea, ever.

Edited March 9, 2014 by frederico

[interestrateripoff]

What utter crap.

The BBC really is a mine of disinformation.

When Russia pulled tanks and troops out of East Germany, they did it with the firm agreement that NATO would not move any further East. I believe this deal was made with Bush senior.

The whole NATO drag nach Osten - under the guise of EU expansion - has come about since then, repudiating that agreement.

While Russia was weak, and Yeltsin was drunk, the EU and NATO were able to plan very well how to reverse engineer the Iron Curtain and shove the Schengen wall right up into Putin's back yard. Followed by 'missile shields' in Poland, radar in Czech and so on.

Ukraine was always the prize. Go and look at the amount of money the US has poured into Ukraine over the years, either through USAID, Peace Corps, various 'Democracy Assistance' programs . . . never mind direct aid and individuals like Soros. Too bad the corrupt bastards ran off with it.

Ukraine is piggy in the middle of a game of geopolitics.

The EU has no business there at all . . . and throwing EU money at non-EU countries while others (Cyprus) are trashed for less makes little sense.

Actually, I now think Putin will keep Crimea, regardless of cost. He doesn't want NATO on the doorstep so he needs to build a bigger doorstep.

The problem is the Russians where crazy to think that NATO wouldn't expand, the Poles simply hate the Russians it was clear from the moment the Russian forces had to pull back places like Poland, Estonia, Latvia etc... where all going to go running to join NATO. They wanted to tell the Russians to feck off and don't come back, the US clearly saw this as a great opportunity to make merry. The trouble is that some of these areas like the Crimea have a large Russian population who want to go back to the motherland. I doubt the Crimea will be the last, although before Khrushchev the Crimea was never part of the Ukraine.

Edited March 9, 2014 by interestrateripoff

[Errol]

Far from the whole world being against Russia, as the Western media and the US would have you believe, it looks like the BRICS are slowly moving in to stand behind Putin: First China, now India:

India Backs Russia's "Legitimate Interests" In Ukraine

According to the report cited above, Indian officials have told Telegraph India that, in the newspaper’s words, Delhi is “convinced that the West’s tacit support for a series of attempted coups against democratically elected governments — in Egypt, Thailand and now Ukraine — has only weakened democratic roots in these countries.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-08/india-backs-russias-legitimate-interests-ukraine

[stormymonday_2011]

The problem is the Russians where crazy to think that NATO wouldn't expand, the Poles simply hate the Russians it was clear from the moment the Russian forces had to pull back places like Poland, Estonia, Latvia etc... where all going to go running to join NATO. They wanted to tell the Russians to feck off and don't come back, the US clearly saw this as a great opportunity to make merry. The trouble is that some of these areas like the Crimea have a large Russian population who want to go back to the motherland. I doubt the Crimea will be the last, although before Khrushchev the Crimea was never part of the Ukraine.

Shame the Baltic states military commitment to NATO is so pathetic. Some of the republics spend less than 1% of GDP on defence. Even the bigger spenders such as Poland only commit 1.9% of GDP to their armed forces. By comparison the UK which is thousand plus miles from Russia commits 2.5 % of GDP on defence even after the latest round of cuts. One would almost think some countries in Europe were freeloading on others. It is a bit rich for these nations to expect people in the UK and the US to go to the wire for them when they seem so reluctant to commit the 2% of GDP to defence which NATO regards as a minimum

Of course, what is being exposed now is that the expansion of NATO and the EU eastward has created exactly the same potential for sparking global conflict as existed prior to World War 1. In particular the various factions of political crooks in places such as Ukraine have become masters at embroiling the major powers in their local conflicts over who is going to loot the states coffers a point which Henry Kissinger highlighted in his recent Washington Post article.One can only guess where the financial aid now being sent to the Ukraine by the EU and US will end up but I expect the Swiss banks and the London Property market will see more of it than the average Ukrainian

Any East Europeans assuming that Uncle Sam is going to ride to their rescue is not paying attention to what some people in Washington are thinking

Edited March 9, 2014 by stormymonday_2011

[interestrateripoff]

Any East Europeans assuming that Uncle Sam is going to ride to their rescue is not paying attention to what some people in Washington are thinking

Even better this time there are no European powers now to check Russia, America has truly undermined Europe.

I doubt Putin would be so eager to flex his muscles if the previous military powerhouses of Britain, France and Germany where still about. Still luckily Europe is far more stable the old empires have been stripped of all power.

[WageWar]

Of course, what is being exposed now is that the expansion of NATO and the EU eastward has created exactly the same potential for sparking global conflict as existed prior to World War 1. In particular the various factions of political crooks in places such as Ukraine have become masters at embroiling the major powers in their local conflicts over who is going to loot the states coffers a point which Henry Kissinger highlighted in his recent Washington Post article.One can only guess where the financial aid now being sent to the Ukraine by the EU and US will end up but I expect the Swiss banks and the London Property market will see more of it than the average Ukrainian

/quote]

Very true. I'll bet that the British government and others played a part in deliberately formenting the revolution in Ukraine. Now they find themselves at the behest of crooks, oligarchs and lunatics in the Ukraine government who demand war. Even if they manage to avoid it, if Russia takes Crimea then it will open up a new Jihadi hotspot on the borders of Europe. Does anybody else get the feeling that we are all just pawns in the agendas of the rich and powerful?

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-08/ukraines-military-mobilizes-prepares-combat-trucks-apcs-tanks-rolling-out

More mobilisation by both sides.

Luckily it's all contained.

[interestrateripoff]

Very true. I'll bet that the British government and others played a part in deliberately formenting the revolution in Ukraine. Now they find themselves at the behest of crooks, oligarchs and lunatics in the Ukraine government who demand war. Even if they manage to avoid it, if Russia takes Crimea then it will open up a new Jihadi hotspot on the borders of Europe. Does anybody else get the feeling that we are all just pawns in the agendas of the rich and powerful?

The proles have always just been pawns in the game, fully expendable and even when revolution comes new rich and power simply take the place and oppress the people. Stalin took the expendable parts to whole new levels the Finish/Soviet Winter War showed how reckless his commanders where ordering repeated charges into machine guns whilst the bodies just built up.

[billybong]

http://

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-08/ukraines-military-mobilizes-prepares-combat-trucks-apcs-tanks-rolling-out

Ukraine's Military Mobilizes, Prepares For Combat:

"Prepares For Combat" sounds a bit more innocuous than Prepares For War.

Edited March 9, 2014 by billybong

[billybong]

Another aspect of the "crisis" is that it suggests that Russia perceives the eu and its allies as now weakening significantly relative to itself - at least economically and maybe politically and geographically as well - and it suggests confirmation that europes' economic problems are far worse than admitted.

It's likely that the Ukraine stuff is just the first step. Russia taking advantage of weakness in the same way as it lost ground since 1990 due to its own period of drastic economic weakness. Ultimately it will want to regain the lost ground so as a result there could be serious friction for years to come.

Edited March 9, 2014 by billybong

[The Masked Tulip]

It's likely that the Ukraine stuff is just the first step.

For the past year Russian bombers and fighters have been doing probing runs at NATO/EU countries and also at Japan. The Swedes have gone back to their Cold War status of turning a blind eye to them but NATO has been moving interceptors into Baltic States to compensate.

Russian Tu-22M Backfire bombers escorted by Su-27 Flankers simulate night attack on Sweden.

http://theaviationist.com/2013/04/22/backfire-sweden/

Incredible photo shows Russian Tu-22 bomber, Su-27 and other fighter planes intercepted over the Baltic

http://theaviationist.com/2013/06/14/russia-mirages/

“Russian bombers practiced bomb runs on Sweden, Baltic States and Poland” Swedish Armed Forces say

http://theaviationist.com/2013/11/13/russian-bombers-sweden-new-attack/

Eight Russian combat planes skirted Estonian airspace on their way to huge Zapad 2013 exercise

http://theaviationist.com/2013/09/23/russian-planes-estonia/

The Russians also recently sent their bombers on a global flight to South America passing close to the US. Russian warships have been cropping up close to NATO/EU countries including the UK.

Ukraine. First step? Nah.

Edited March 9, 2014 by The Masked Tulip

[stormymonday_2011]

The proles have always just been pawns in the game, fully expendable and even when revolution comes new rich and power simply take the place and oppress the people. Stalin took the expendable parts to whole new levels the Finish/Soviet Winter War showed how reckless his commanders where ordering repeated charges into machine guns whilst the bodies just built up.

Accounts of Soviet soldiers being sent into battle with no rifles against enemy troops are often cited as examples of both Stalin and his governments uniquely callous disregard for human life. However. during my recent research into the First World War I found that exactly the same thing happened to Czarist soldiers in that conflict where upto a third were sent to the front with no gun. The rulers of Russia appear to have always held the lives of the average Moujik soldier as expendable.

Edited March 10, 2014 by stormymonday_2011

[billybong]

For the past year Russian bombers and fighters have been doing probing runs at NATO/EU countries and also at Japan. The Swedes have gone back to their Cold War status of turning a blind eye to them but NATO has been moving interceptors into Baltic States to compensate.

...

...

The Russians also recently sent their bombers on a global flight to South America passing close to the US. Russian warships have been cropping up close to NATO/EU countries including the UK.

Ukraine. First step? Nah.

Interesting about the precursor moves of the Russian airforce (and navy). Even so the Ukraine/Crimea stuff is the first step in taking back control of actual land to the West of Russia rather than air space and sea.

Edited March 9, 2014 by billybong

[The Masked Tulip]

The rulers if Russia appear to have always held the lives of the average Moujik soldier as expendable.

One Tsar did not - I forget his name - but one of his regrets in life was not outlawing serfdom. On his death-bed he made his son and heir promise that he would outlaw... which he did... and then he was murdered by 'the people'...

The last tsar had incredible personal wealth - estimated to be about 900 million pounds in his day which, I believe, is something like 13 or 14 billion today. Yet he bemoaned giving his soldiers things like boots... guns... bullets... food...

[The Masked Tulip]

Interesting about the precursor moves of the Russian airforce (and navy). Even so the Ukraine/Crimea stuff is the first step in taking back control of actual land to the West of Russia rather than air space and sea.

Yep, I was merely pointing out that Russian fighters, bombers, warships and submarines have been on an increased aggressive posture - and increasing - for a few years now. Probing. Seeing how far they can push. Looking for vulnerabilities.

The Swedish case is a good example - last year, as above, Russian bombers and fighters staged an attack on Sweden. Either the Swedes did not see it or, as per the Cold War days, they turned a diplomatic blind eye to it. NATO gave them a b*llocking for that and, sunsequently, Swedish fighters have been going up to meet subsequent 'attacks'.

[billybong]

http://

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/pro-russia-troops-install-minefields.html

Pro-Russia Troops Install Minefields, Border Markers in Crimea; Gazprom Ups Price of Natural Gas 37%, Calls in $2 Billion Gas Debt

[Stay Beautiful]

If it bleeds we can kill it

[copydude]

Hmmmm. . . all seems done and dusted to me.

Russia gets the Crimea.

NATO gets Ukraine.

The EU picks up the tab.

Only one loser here.

[Stay Beautiful]

Hmmmm. . . all seems done and dusted to me.

Russia gets the Crimea.

NATO gets Ukraine.

The EU picks up the tab.

Only one loser here.

I look forward to a boom in Ukraine Travel Agencies.

[billybong]

http://

edition.cnn.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-politics/

Ukraine mobilizes troops after Russia's 'declaration of war'

http://

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/war-talk-roundup-china-has-no-room-for.html

War Talk Roundup: China Has "No Room for Compromise with Japan"; Spotlight on China, Japan, US, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, North Korea

The global macro picture is bad enough in and of itself. Simmering feuds between rival nations certainly do not help the picture. Here are a few recent stories that caught my eye.

Edited March 10, 2014 by billybong

[interestrateripoff]

Russia Is Doomed

...

Another source of modern Russian power has been its massive energy reserves. Indeed, high oil prices during the 1970s allowed the Soviet Union to flex its muscles abroad. However, as energy prices stabilized during the 1980s the artifice upon which the Soviet system began to crumble. Far from continuing to expand, the end of the decade saw the Soviet empire disintegrate, with Moscow powerless to stop it.

The so-called resurgence Russia has enjoyed since Putin first assumed power has also been built on high energy prices. And like the Soviet leaders before him, Putin has squandered the temporary respite provided by high energy prices instead of using it to reinvest in the country and its people. As the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development noted gloomily in December 2012, “Not only are Russian exports highly concentrated in natural resources, this concentration has increased over time: the shares of oil, gas and other minerals in Russia’s exports are higher today than they were 15 years ago.”

It went on to reflect: “In 2012 Russia remains highly dependent on its natural resources. Oil and gas now account for nearly 70 percent of total goods exports…. Oil and gas revenues also contribute around half of the federal budget. The non-oil fiscal deficit has averaged more than 11 per cent of GDP since 2009, while the oil price consistent with a balanced budget is now in the region of US$115 per barrel and rising.”

The problem with the Russian Federation’s economic model, much like that of the Soviet Union’s before it, is that it is only sustainable so long as energy prices remain artificially high. But, of course, energy prices are almost certainly going to decline over the coming years as a result of greater energy efficiency in the West, slowing growth in the East, and greater supply as a result of the energy revolutions being enjoyed in the Western Hemisphere and elsewhere around the world. And as goes the price of oil so goes the Russian state.

Also like the Soviet Union, Putin’s Russia has managed to maintain a modicum of global influence through the sale of its military weaponry. Although Russian military technology is greatly inferior to the West and the United States, it is sufficient to meet the national security needs of most states around the world. More importantly, Moscow continues to exhibit a willingness to provide it to states that the West refuses to deal with on moral or geostrategic grounds. In these states at least, Russia has been able to maintain a degree of influence.

War always looms when economic failure is coming. Russia should have put all it's eggs in the financial sector basket and house prices!

[Errol]

Russia Is Doomed

That article is wrong on one count, at least: 'Although Russian military technology is greatly inferior to the West and the United States'

Russia is the acknowledged world leader in missile technology. Their systems are said to be significantly more advanced than anything the West has - in particular in the area of evasive/high-speed technology.

Missiles are cheaper - much cheaper - than Aircraft carriers or fighter jets. Anti air, ground to ground, anti-ship - you name it, the Russian variant is the world leader.

Rightly feared by both the US and NATO.

[rollover]

Who has economic interests in Ukraine? It’s not just Russia

Ukraine has its own gas fields, many of which are located in the east, near Russia. the country’s proven gas reserves amount to 39 trillion cubic feet. Foreign companies such as Chevron, which has a $400-million agreement for shale gas exploration in Ukraine, is “closely monitoring” what’s happening. Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell also have deals exploration deals for the Oleska shale deposit, but both companies have declined to comment on the situation, according to Bloomberg.

Ukraine, according to the Financial Times, has some of the planet’s “richest farmland” Ukraine is often referred to as the “bread basket of Europe” thanks to its fertile black soil. Agriculture is one of Ukraine’s key industries, accounting for almost 10 per cent of its gross domestic product. It’s the world’s 9th-largest producer of wheat and 5th-largest corn producer. Rye, oat, beet, sunflower and barley crops are among other major exports.

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/western-leaders-cannot-face-a-looming-war-so-i-guess-theyll-patch-something-up--and-let-russia-gobble-part-of-ukraine-9179978.html

..

And the “crisis” or the war “looming” in the Ukraine is of great interest to someone who lives not a hundred miles from my home: President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who will have been much relieved to see Putin leap to the rescue of Russian Ukraine as firmly as he did for Syria. Indeed, Assad, according to his government, has even sent a telegram to Putin – do people still send “telegrams”, by the way? – in which he “expressed ... Syria’s solidarity with Putin’s efforts to restore security and stability to Ukraine in the face of attempted coups against legitimacy and democracy in favour of radical terrorists”. Syria was committed, Assad said, to “President Putin’s rational, peace-loving approach that seeks to establish a global system supporting stability and fighting”.

And Assad praised Putin’s “wise political leadership and commitment to international legitimacy based on the law that governs ties between nations and peoples”. Phew. Well, we got the point. Assad liked what he saw in Simferopol, although I notice he didn’t say anything about the ousted Viktor Yanukovich – and I’m not surprised. The Ukrainian leader did a bunk out of his own country. Assad did not run away. Putin, I suspect, will have liked that, just as Putin will have enjoyed the fact that Madame Clinton, Obama himself, David Cameron and Messieurs Hollande and Sarkozy – all of whom said years ago that Assad would go, was about to go or virtually gone – were totally wrong.

So Syria supports Russia.

[stormymonday_2011]

Russia Is Doomed

War always looms when economic failure is coming. Russia should have put all it's eggs in the financial sector basket and house prices!

Laughable tosh,.

If that analysis of future energy demand is correct (which I very much doubt) then Saudia Arabia is thrice doomed since oil and gas are way more important for its future than Russia which has an abundance of other natural resources it can exploit.

Edited March 10, 2014 by stormymonday_2011