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The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread


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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-06/ukraine-imposes-limits-interbank-operations

Keep those dominoes steady... steady... and nobody exhale:

UKRAINE IMPOSES LIMITS ON SOME INTERBANK FX OPERATIONS

UKRAINE TIGHTENS RULES ON COPRORATE FOREIGN-CURRENCY PURCHASES

UKRAINE CENTRAL BANK CITES HRYVNIA VOLATILITY ON FX MEASURES

There is of course, good news:

UKRAINE CENTRAL BANK SAYS INTERBANK LIMITS ARE TEMPORARY

Just like in Cyprus.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-06/ukraine-has-failed-bond-auction-cds-soar-pre-bailout-levels

Yesterday we reported a warning by BNP that "The Run On Ukrainian Deposits May Have Already Started." Obviously, while the real implications for the country's financial system should a full-blown bank run emerge would be dire , they would take some time to manifest themselves, especially since as Interfax reported, the country's central bank still has $17.8 billion in reserves as of today (if sliding at an alarming pace). To be expected, overnight the same central bank reiterated its support for the currency, knowing that the last thing it can afford is an evaporation in confidence:

UKRAINE CENTRAL BANK READY TO SUPPORT UAH IF NEEDED: LYTVYTSKYI

The government also promplty chimed in:

UKRAINE’S YANUKOVYCH PLEDGES TO AVOID ESCALATING CRISIS

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/02/20140206_Ukraine_0.png

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-05/bnp-warns-run-ukrainian-deposits-may-have-already-started

"It is absolutely impossible to forecast" Ukraine’s exchange rate, BNP Paribas notes in an ominous report today. Considering Ukraine’s huge need to cover its current account deficit, the country is increasingly reliant on financial inflows - and these will be difficult to secure. The Hyrvnia has collapsed this morninng to 9.00 back near December 2008 lows as BNP warns "The NBU faces a difficult task: let the FX rate devalue to a 'new fair level' without triggering a run on hryvnia retail deposits, which might have already started." Relying on external support amid a forced devaluation "increases risks of disorderly adjustement," and that appears to happening.

The first crisis of 2014?

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  • 2 weeks later...

I think the West is playing silly b*ggers in the Ukraine. Putin will not let the Ukraine move away from Russian influence for all sorts of reasons. He can turn the gas supply off any time he likes.

I suspect the Americans, and probably the EU, just wants to put pressure on him bearing in mind that Russian and Chinese ships have begun joint exercises again, that in the past 12 months Russia bombers have been flying off the coasts off many European countries, Japan and North America. Then, of course, there is Syria.

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