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crashmonitor

Halifax House Price Index - January

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The good news just keeps coming, who % of this was from the savvy foreign London investors ? laugh.gif

Government bank says people should pay more for their product, government gains more tax, banks appear solvent. laugh.gif

****ing hilarious. laugh.gif

Would the idiopt BTL-ers filling their boots right now please pay more for housing, the sooner this baby crashes the better. laugh.gif

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"House prices in the three months to January were 1.9% higher than in the previous three months. The annual growth in prices fell slightly compared with last month with prices in the three months to January 7.3% higher than in the same period last year."With the supply of properties being slow to respond to more buoyant market conditions, stronger demand has resulted in continued upward pressure on house prices. Demand has increased against a background of low interest rates and higher consumer confidence underpinned by signs that the economy is recovering and unemployment falling faster than expected. Official schemes, such as Help to Buy, also appear to have boosted housing demand. However, continuing pressures on household finances, as earnings fail to keep pace with consumer price inflation, are expected to remain a constraint on the rate of growth of house prices."

In other words, if TPTB got out of the way, these indices would be MoM and YoY negative.

:angry:

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12% off nominal peak now....568.2/646.0 (August 2007).

Forget unemployment 7% targets, quite a long way before we get back to 646.0 and Carney's covert monetary tightening target. He wants that crap from Northern Rock off his balance sheet asap.

Meanwhile Osborne (from a concurrent thread) is also doing his best to get that bad loan book revalued too.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/04/housing-crisis-george-osborne

Edited by crashmonitor

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12% off nominal peak now....568.2/646.0 (August 2007).

Forget unemployment 7% targets, quite a long way before we get back to 646.0 and Carney's covert monetary tightening target. He wants that crap from Northern Rock off his balance sheet asap.

Since the global economy appears to have slowed dramaticalIy in recent weeks I suggest Carney's more likely to loosen this year than tighten. An extension of the QE remit in the April budget is my guess, allowing the Bank to start purchasing distressed MBS again. I don't believe he's exercised in any way by house price inflation, any more than Bernanke was.

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Since the global economy appears to have slowed dramaticalIy in recent weeks I suggest Carney's more likely to loosen this year than tighten. An extension of the QE remit in the April budget is my guess, allowing the Bank to start purchasing distressed MBS again. I don't believe he's exercised in any way by house price inflation, any more than Bernanke was.

Are the still actually doing Q.E. ?

As far as I recall they have said every month, since the queen visited the BoE, that there is no extension.

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Are the still actually doing Q.E. ?

As far as I recall they have said every month, since the queen visited the BoE, that there is no extension.

It hasn't been reversed, so yes they're still doing QE. Most of the £375bn is back on deposit with the BoE but via the round trip it's been used continuously to bid up asset prices. FWIW I believe the economy is much weaker than stated and that Osborne's gone too early with HtB in the run up to the GE. Ordinarily he'd just borrow more to push up the GDP numbers but UK borrowing is already out of control and the headline deficit an acutely sensitive issue. By extending QE he can improve bank profits (and bonuses) keep mortgage rates lower and mortgage lending higher than might otherwise be the case and still appear to be reducing his borrowing. The principal downside is that the housing bubble will receive another murderous boost but he's evidently unconcerned by that.

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By extending QE he can improve bank profits (and bonuses) keep mortgage rates lower and mortgage lending higher than might otherwise be the case

Thus pushing up the GDP figures through Imputed Rent, presumably?

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Thus pushing up the GDP figures through Imputed Rent, presumably?

Certainly the imputed wealth. Plus the additional mortgage debt and household spending that generally accompanies a house purchase.

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Certainly the imputed wealth. Plus the additional mortgage debt and household spending that generally accompanies a house purchase.

there's only been a slight up turn in buying last year based on fls ultra law mortgage rates...London speculation are making the indexes look rosy but that can't last.

we are being told we have been returned to normal

..but things are far from normal.

there is no recovery.

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there's only been a slight up turn in buying last year based on fls ultra law mortgage rates...London speculation are making the indexes look rosy but that can't last.

we are being told we have been returned to normal

..but things are far from normal.

there is no recovery.

I broadly agree but I suspect that HPI is the only gimmick Osbo has left with which to buy the GE.

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I broadly agree but I suspect that HPI is the only gimmick Osbo has left with which to buy the GE.

And the problem for the Conservatives is that by this course of action they risk pushing affordability of housing to the front of the political agenda, with 15 months to the GE.

That's a long time for an opposition to form a narrative.

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And the problem for the Conservatives is that by this course of action they risk pushing affordability of housing to the front of the political agenda, with 15 months to the GE.

That's a long time for an opposition to form a narrative.

yes....they are playing with fire. ;)

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http://

www.theguardian.com/society/2014/feb/04/housing-crisis-george-osborne

But Osborne said: "We are recovering from a property crash. Am I someone who says we should be vigilant about this? Absolutely we should be vigilant …

"As is clear from [the Bank of England's] reports, they do not at the moment see what you would describe as a bubble, but they are vigilant."

Vigilant - like a vulture and hoping for more house buyers at crazy prices.

Edited by billybong

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Can someone explain why the annual rate has dropped this month, when the Jan 2013 figure of -0.8 fall in prices will have been replaced by the 1.1 increase in jan 2014?

Possibly because of the 3 month moving average, these figures are not January 2014 on January 2013 they are quarter to January 2014 on quarter to January 2013, in fact November 2012 hasn't dropped out yet, such is the f%%ked up logic of the Halifax maths.

Actual annual growth without Halifax messing is 568.2/526.9 = 7.8%.

Could be worse GDP is measured on a 12 month moving average so in 2013 you get GDP accelerating 2.5% but the stats say 1.9%.

Edited by crashmonitor

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