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sam

The Passionate Bears Have Gone Quite On Pmt Fool

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Just had a quick glance at Motley Fool PMT, also caught up on a few posts on HPC.

Now please do not rip my head off you lot(i'm a Bear, honest Guv), but this "there is going to be a crash frenzy" is dying fast.

Many of the uber Bears have gone quite on PMT, and the Bulls do look like they are now winning the day.

The fear of a property crash amongst the masses is getting less by the month(rightly or wrongly), this might be a bubble, but it is a solid one.

Sam

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Just had a quick glance at Motley Fool PMT, also caught up on a few posts on HPC.

Now please do not rip my head off you lot(i'm a Bear, honest Guv), but this "there is going to be a crash frenzy" is dying fast.

Many of the uber Bears have gone quite on PMT, and the Bulls do look like they are now winning the day.

The fear of a property crash amongst the masses is getting less by the month(rightly or wrongly), this might be a bubble, but it is a solid one.

Sam

Crash ? dear boy that's soooooooooooo yesterday. better get used to the CORRECTION thats underway

Just to help you, as a rough guide, the last one took about 6 YEARS !

so the question is Sam, have you got the bottle to wait it out ?

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Just had a quick glance at Motley Fool PMT, also caught up on a few posts on HPC.

Now please do not rip my head off you lot(i'm a Bear, honest Guv), but this "there is going to be a crash frenzy" is dying fast.

Many of the uber Bears have gone quite on PMT, and the Bulls do look like they are now winning the day.

The fear of a property crash amongst the masses is getting less by the month(rightly or wrongly), this might be a bubble, but it is a solid one.

Sam

Yes, I noticed it there some time ago. I think it’s a combination of hpc being far more amenable to obsessive property watchers and uber bears and so getting many of us off there – and the paradoxical but fairly consistent bubble behaviour of the bears losing faith just as the bubble finally starts to deflate.

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"Just had a quick glance at Motley Fool PMT, also caught up on a few posts on HPC.

Now please do not rip my head off you lot(i'm a Bear, honest Guv), but this "there is going to be a crash frenzy" is dying fast."

Not sure how old you are Sam but would remind you that HPCs when they do arrive take several years to work their way through.

Also much as we would like to think that the world revolves around us and that we have an influence on how things develop I am realistic enough to know that although a house price crash is inevitable neither I nor anyone else here or on Motley Fool can make it happen now. Neither can whistling in the dark by others make it not happen at all.

It's going to happen because it always does and not because a bunch of peeps talk about on the internet.

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Yes, I noticed it there some time ago. I think it’s a combination of hpc being far more amenable to obsessive property watchers and uber bears and so getting many of us off there – and the paradoxical but fairly consistent bubble behaviour of the bears losing faith just as the bubble finally starts to deflate.

Or perhaps a recognition that realistically if you have property and you aren't about to sell it in the next few years then the coming HPC is pretty academic to you anyway. This site simply becomes a bit dull as would similar threads on motley Fool.

They aren't writing about buying any new stuff though are they?

Lack of discussion indicates acceptance of the inevitable rather than any change of sentiment.

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I was watching that old classic WWII film recently, "The Dambusters", and saw how the bouncing bomb was used to knock out dams to flood the surrounding countryside. One of the dams was constructed with a massive pile of earth that you would not think would be damaged by a bomb. However, the impact caused a very slow erosion to begin that built momentum as more and more soil gave way to the water pressure. I think the house market is very similar. The HPC bears have done their work in alerting the public to the foolish notion that house prices only go up and never down (or that previous crashes are an anomoly and will never happen again) and now its time to see the foundation of the market start to slowly slip away util there is nothing left to sustain it and Whooooooshhh..the dam breaks.

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<i>They aren't writing about buying any new stuff though are they?</i>

Some of them are, including the numbers man KingOfNowhere

I for one have some bear fatigue now, though I am keeping a weather eye on things. At the moment I remain unwilling to move into BTL at current yields, or to finally throw in the towel and buy a PPR.

I have begun to be persuaded by arguments like those of KoN, the fundamentals of the market *have* changed since last time. I have to admit that things might really be a bit different now. Specifically, there is now a completely new class of landlord, funded by borrowing. While parts of the market may indeed crash impressively (new builds just targeted at amateur BTL landlords), there is no sign that average houses are going anywhere for the moment.

Perhaps something has happened akin to a revaluation of the currency. A new baseline may have been created.

Or perhaps this bubble has just had a rest and is about to enter a new growth spurt before the reckoning comes. Either is not good for an STR.

I'm beginning to buy into the idea of a "sideways" market as a real possibility despite an inherent disbelief in graphs which appear to flatline at the peak of a boom . Meanwhile, I have to decide whether to buy back into London, at least at the lower end at some point as longer term I believe we are moving to a world of "city states" floating in a kind of extended sea of the third world. Being out of the London market long term, if one needs a base there as I do, is very dangerous.

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I have to admit that things might really be a bit different now. Specifically, there is now a completely new class of landlord, funded by borrowing.

Is that the neo-bull case?

A class of landlords getting lower yields on riskier investments is prepared to support a class of renters who find it cheaper to rent the house than rent the money to buy the house.

The real question is not what motivates the class of landlord - but the new class of lender. If the lenders become less indulgent will this new class of landlord have any leg to stand on?

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Many of the uber Bears have gone quite on PMT, and the Bulls do look like they are now winning the day.

Sam

Please supply link to ONE thread where 'the Bulls have won the day'.

I'm getting sick of this. Please come back in 2008 - I'm sure this site will be full of Bulls predicting that we've now 'hit the bottom' etc.

The reason bears are disappearing, is that the argument is over. HPC is here NOW. If you can't see it, you're a bull.

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

I know one things for sure, I'm glad I've got no B-T-Ls it's so two thousand

and one. :)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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