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Uk Boom And Bust

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Roger Bootle, another Oxford educated charlatan with a string of letters to his name. :rolleyes:

No more boom and bust, eh? So what did this savant have to say in 2007, some six months out from the greatest financial crisis the world has ever seen?

by James Garner, Tuesday 6th March 2007 11:59

Leading economist Roger Bootle doesn't expect the current troubles in the world economy to lead to a full blown global and US recession.

Professor Bootle, who is managing director of Capital Economics, said that the US economy would experience a slow down in the next few years, but he didn't expect the world's largest economy to go in reverse.

He told delegates at the 10th International Hotel Investment Forum in Berlin that US growth would slow to 2% this year, but he believed the Federal Reserve would react by cutting interest rates and avoid a recession.

Bootle added that the future for the Eurozone looked a lot better, for both consumers and business.

"This year and next year growth may be weaker, because of the slow down in the US economy, but the outlook in Europe is good," he said.

Bootle predicted Spain would be the leading European economy followed by the UK, with Italy the weakest performer.

He also said that a "surge" of immigration to the UK had been good for its economy and he expected that to continue.

"The outlook for the UK's economy is good, beyond the short term. There will be a slowdown in the UK this year to 2% growth as our economy reacts to the US slowdown.

"But I expect a recovery in the economy in 2008 and the medium-term prospects for the UK economy are extremely good."

- See more at: http://www.catereran...h.KPjSTnqN.dpuf

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House prices "supported by a burst of higher inflation"

Pretty much along the lines of my other thread on higher nominal wages.

Bl**din' obvious which way this is going.

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House prices "supported by a burst of higher inflation"

Pretty much along the lines of my other thread on higher nominal wages.

Bl**din' obvious which way this is going.

Yes TPTB want higher wages. Seems to be an everyday occurrence Obarma raising minimum wages 39% Davos talking about inequality ect. Don't know whether they will achieve it.

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faisal said on c4 last night the economy is less 'rebalanced' than at the start of the recession (when commenting on the gdp figs)

of course, being the tv news, they stopped there and didnt bother exploring it any further.

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Yes TPTB want higher wages. Seems to be an everyday occurrence Obarma raising minimum wages 39% Davos talking about inequality ect. Don't know whether they will achieve it.

Oh great! I have refused to take on a massive mortgage, but those that did will get inflation busting payrises to pay off their debts and house prices will continue to soar. Anyone wish they had never googled "house price crash"?!

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Oh great! I have refused to take on a massive mortgage, but those that did will get inflation busting payrises to pay off their debts and house prices will continue to soar. Anyone wish they had never googled "house price crash"?!

Yes, me - I have lost 10 years due to following this website. I am much more clued up economically now, but still a renter and everything is getting further out of reach.

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Oh great! I have refused to take on a massive mortgage, but those that did will get inflation busting payrises to pay off their debts and house prices will continue to soar. Anyone wish they had never googled "house price crash"?!

I'm starting to wonder why we gave so little thought to inflation as the preferred solution - confirmation bias?

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Yes, me - I have lost 10 years due to following this website. I am much more clued up economically now, but still a renter and everything is getting further out of reach.

the curse of knowlege - what is known cannot be unknown.

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I'm starting to wonder why we gave so little thought to inflation as the preferred solution - confirmation bias?

I'm sure we chewed that one over a million times.

We still only have half of the inflation solution in place though.ie Prices.

Funny that despite the gubmint saying its 2%, nobody on here takes any notice. :lol:

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I'm sure we chewed that one over a million times.

We still only have half of the inflation solution in place though.ie Prices.

Funny that despite the gubmint saying its 2%, nobody on here takes any notice. :lol:

Not even just on here. My local news sites, daily mail comments, local forums, nobody believes it and certainly most think house prices are too high as well.

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I'm sure we chewed that one over a million times.

We still only have half of the inflation solution in place though.ie Prices.

Funny that despite the gubmint saying its 2%, nobody on here takes any notice. :lol:

Well, perhaps, but iirc never with the gravity it should have been. That aside, you're right about the second half of the equation, but if they can engineer modest wage rises, they will do it.

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I'm sure we chewed that one over a million times.

We still only have half of the inflation solution in place though.ie Prices.

Its been discussed plenty of times. I don't see any employer paying more than they need to in a time of high unemployment. When people are happy to be in work at all they are not demanding pay rises.

There was barely any movement in salaries leading up to 2008, houses made everyone rich who needed to earn anything?

Any change in incomes now is down to more hours or more 'jobs'. The debt remains real.

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Oh great! I have refused to take on a massive mortgage, but those that did will get inflation busting payrises to pay off their debts and house prices will continue to soar. Anyone wish they had never googled "house price crash"?!

I'm relaxed about it. There's loads of housing VIs who want to see it rather than see their homes lose value. Some people on forum who would love to see it on the forum as they don't want a hpc. They think £400,000 terraces are the norm, and anyone with jumbo mortgage was tricked into it. Never short of excuses.

There's too much of a gap between hyperinflated house prices, the haves and the have-nots, to make much difference. Also bondholders and savers are a counterbalancing to seeing capital eroded.

Any push for higher wages, beyond what economy can support, will probably tighten the deflationary impulse. Gov and private enterprise is already shedding and cutting costs all over the place. Jawboning for higher wages as i think gf3 put it earlier today.

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Its been discussed plenty of times. I don't see any employer paying more than they need to in a time of high unemployment. When people are happy to be in work at all they are not demanding pay rises.

There was barely any movement in salaries leading up to 2008, houses made everyone rich who needed to earn anything?

Any change in incomes now is down to more hours or more 'jobs'. The debt remains real.

I understand what you're saying, but, to some extent, you are also illustrating the problem I'm talking about. We tended to assume that the underlying economic fundamentals had to win through over government intervention, as though they were gravity and the government was a plane that had run out of fuel. To some degree, we assumed this because we assumed that the tools the government would use were limited to tools it had used in the past.

From the government's pov, general inflation followed by a more moderate wage inflation probably looks like a golden ticket - ergo, if tools are conceivable that will achieve this outcome, they will deploy them. They could, for example, create tax incentives or value staff as assets according to salary. I dunno.

Please don't misunderstand me. I don't like the situation and I fully expect a honking-great black swan to knock their plans for six.

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From the government's pov, general inflation followed by a more moderate wage inflation probably looks like a golden ticket - ergo, if tools are conceivable that will achieve this outcome, they will deploy them. They could, for example, create tax incentives or value staff as assets according to salary. I dunno.

Im sure its what they want but its not up to them. If they could they surely would, and as yet, they havent.

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Im sure its what they want but its not up to them. If they could they surely would, and as yet, they havent.

Would you have predicted the tools they would employ post-credit crunch? There's a lot of sabre-rattling going on, and the timing is right (it's not that they don't want our standard of living to drop - they just don't want them to drop too much. Those debts still have to be paid).

Anyway, we shall see.

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