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Q4 Gdp Results Due Tomorrow (Tuesday)

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Preliminary GDP figures for the last quarter of 2013v are published tomorrow. Forex factory has a prediction of +0.7% for the quarter. Any thoughts?

If private sector debt grew more then expected the so will GDP figures and vice versa.

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GROSS domestic product is sort of like a figure for turnover.

You can have the biggest turnover imaginable....look at the banking sector in 2007...their GDP must have been huge.

However, whatever the GDP of the sector, the banks were generally broke...

The same thing applies to Nations where the news channels concentrate solely on this figure...looking at the NETT domestic product wont be good.

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BBC reporting GDP grows by 1.9%....up 0.7% in the quarter.

I think they went with the 1.9 cause it's higher than the 0.7.

We are all officially 1,9% poorer than last year....unless you are rich.

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p.S. I fear that now Osborne has realised his only way to get GDP figures up is to undertake sub-prime lending this will be their only policy....shortly followed by financial Armageddon.

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No lose. If they raise rates in response to this that's great.

If they hold them down then if the recovery is genuine then the crack up boom that results will make property overshoot even more on the correction.

Play the long game. I've been waiting 10+ years.

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Now that GDP no longer correlates with either tax revenues or living standards, I'm not really sure why the media are getting so excited about it. Might as well be the transit of Deimos by Phobos for all the difference this makes.

One theory is that journalists don't actually know anything about economics, but they can understand a system in which a big number is better than a small number so decide to report that instead of doing hard things like investigating housing sizes, working hours, commuting times, job security, stress etc.

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As an aside, from the BBC piece:

But industrial production fell slightly from 0.8% to 0.7%, dragged down by falling North Sea oil and gas output.

Why is North Sea oil and gas output counted as production? Surely, given that there is a finite amount of gas and oil under the sea, it should be called exploitation and not count towards GDP.

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0.7% and slowing. Ashen faces at Tory HQ. :lol:

031114.gif

It has been remarkably consistent since Q2........+0.7%, +0.8%,+0.7% or 3% annualised. Adding to the 0.3% in Q1 gives real growth in 2013 of 2.5%. I do not understand why annual GDP growth is measured on a four quarter moving average, because the 1.9% official figures are distorted by the slow growth in 2012.

More excuses for the MPC not to raise rates because growth is accelerating far faster than the annual smoothed GDP figures suggest.

Edit. These figures are still disappointing zugwang so your point is valid, remember some (me included) were expecting 1.0%. On the other hand they do seem to have been revising upward retrospectively lately.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Pedantic mode/ shouldnt it be Q3 of 2013/2014 financial year than Q4 of just 2013? Or is this playing with the figures to get an outcome of what they want

/pedantic mode

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Well if George had eliminated the deficit there would be £100bn less turnover or GDP so how much does the new debt of £100bn contribute to GDP growth ... all of it and then some. So the real value creation in UK is much less than stated and the debt level is soaring. GDP is such IMHO a false indicator as all you need to increase it is more government spending (and the consequential increase in debt and debt servicing costs) but and increase in GDP is greeted with outbursts of joy.

You need to tell that to Ed Balls too. GDP is everything to him, '' investing'' in the future is all about debt as far as he is concerned. Remember the **** is proud of his spending spree.

Edited by crashmonitor

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They are both the same. Balls has now said he will eliminate the deficit by 2020; he won't, George said he would eliminate the deficit by 2015; he won't.

If only we could think of a catchy phrase for this.

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from the 'orses mouth:

http://www.barclays.co.uk/Businessmanagement/Keepingontopofyourcashflow/P1242559779835

"It's worth remembering the old business saying: turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, but cash is reality.By Steve Priddy, Director - Technical Policy & Research, ACCA"

tongue.gif to Is-born ( with a silver spoon in his mouth ).

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