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Scottish Independence Vote

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Hi Guys

Do any of you have any insight into how this is standing currently in terms of the likelihood of a yes vote?

Are there any current polls in Scotland that reflect the current situation?

Cheers

PF

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Don't forget that the independence vote comes after the European elections, when UKIP will become a very big deal indeed in UK politics. Given the general dislike of UKIP in Scotland, the SNP could get a major boost.

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There's a comedy film - the name of which escapes me right now - that suggests a scenario where drunken white blokes vote for Jessie Jackson because they're pissed, and he doesn't stand a chance anyway. Jesse of course won.

I foresee Scotland narrowly voting "Yes" for pretty much the same reasons...

XYY

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There's a comedy film - the name of which escapes me right now - that suggests a scenario where drunken white blokes vote for Jessie Jackson because they're pissed, and he doesn't stand a chance anyway. Jesse of course won.

I foresee Scotland narrowly voting "Yes" for pretty much the same reasons...

I am inclined to agree

XYY

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I reckon the Scots will get out of Dodge.

Ultimately this is a regional issue that forces London to pay for its exotic credit.

If that's the case, the only swing issue is Scottish pride in its banks. LOL!

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I reckon the Scots will get out of Dodge.

Ultimately this is a regional issue that forces London to pay for its exotic credit.

If that's the case, the only swing issue is Scottish pride in its banks. LOL!

Aye, fair point.

But - on the off chance they do put Hadrian's Wall back up - you'll forgive me for examining the possibility of applying for dual-nationality.

Mrs XYY's fatha is from Dundee after all...

:)

XYY

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So when is all this going to happen? It's difficult to imagine Scotland shuffling off to go it's own way. It's pretty cold out there without daddy's (London) money :D Unless of course they get independence and continue to be bank rolled by London :rolleyes:

And when is this referendum on Europe going to happen that Cameron has promised? It's even more difficult to imagine this taking place. Am I dreaming? Could the UK actually leave the European union?

Edited by Darkman

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And when is this referendum on Europe going to happen that Cameron has promised?

The only scenario in which a "Brexit" is even remotely feasible, at a guess, would go as follows.

1. UKIP wins the Euro elections this year.

2. UKIP splits the right-of-centre vote in the 2015 general election, letting Labour in with a very small majority as the result of the Tories losing a whole load of marginals.

3. As a result of 2, Eurosceptics take firm control of the Tory party, the party gets a Eurosceptic leader and the Tories promising a binding in/out referendum as their first act after regaining power. They win in 2020, and the referendum happens.

Of course, that depends on the public caring enough about the EU for this scenario to play out. In particular, scenario 2 could be caused by general dissatisfaction with the Tories on a whole range of issues among their core support base, not just Europe.

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There's a comedy film - the name of which escapes me right now - that suggests a scenario where drunken white blokes vote for Jessie Jackson because they're pissed, and he doesn't stand a chance anyway. Jesse of course won.

I foresee Scotland narrowly voting "Yes" for pretty much the same reasons...

XYY

Another scenario is that the Scots aim for a narrow defeat on Independence. It would give the Tories a bloody nose and send out the message they want even more public money to compensate for all that oil.

Again, to achieve a narrow defeat you need a few Unionists to vote yes, and again they may end up with what they voted for but didn't really want.

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So when is all this going to happen? It's difficult to imagine Scotland shuffling off to go it's own way. It's pretty cold out there without daddy's (London) money :D Unless of course they get independence and continue to be bank rolled by London :rolleyes:

That's what will happen. The 1% realise they have ******ed up England so much they need a place to for them and their families to retire, Scotland while not perfect fits the bill just fine and with independence they can keep the riffraff well and truly out.

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Do the English, Irish and Welsh get a vote on whether they want to stay in a union with Scotland?

Considering the majority of them have spent the better part of the last 1000 years knocking seven shades of sh1t out of the Scots, I would say they'd already voted.

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I reckon the Scots will get out of Dodge.

Ultimately this is a regional issue that forces London to pay for its exotic credit.

If that's the case, the only swing issue is Scottish pride in its banks. LOL!

I saw Alistair Darling on TV late last year arguing that if Scotland had been outside the union in 2008 then it wouldn't have been big enough to bail out Scottish banks like RBS. I think he meant that as a bad thing.

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Who am I to know......but I can't see Scotland becoming independent, they will stay within the fold, talking as a bit scot myself. ;)

Depends which bit...

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Hi Guys

Do any of you have any insight into how this is standing currently in terms of the likelihood of a yes vote?

Are there any current polls in Scotland that reflect the current situation?

Cheers

PF

Bookmakers think it's a No for Independence

£6 on No only wins you £1 @ 1/6

£1 on Yes wins you £3.50 @ 7/2

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/scottish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=451400

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So everyone has a bet and then they all vote yes

On minority interest betting market like that, I think you would find that they wouldn't be prepared to take much money.

Also most bookmakers have a little known rule hidden away, that if people join together to do the same bet, it can be classed as a coup/fraud and the winning bets voided.

Betfred claimed that here:

On June 1, Betfred.com’s lawyers informed the five account holders, four of whom are related to Curley, that bets showing a profit of more than £823,000 would be voided under the company’s rule 10, which states: “Any person or group of persons acting in an attempt to defraud Betfred.com will have their bets voided.”

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/barney-curley-betfred-refuse-to-pay-out-online-bets-in-curley-coup/867191

Betfred paid out 21 months later:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9094487/Betfred-finally-pays-out-4m-to-Newmarket-trainer-Barney-Curley-coup.html

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Hi Guys

Do any of you have any insight into how this is standing currently in terms of the likelihood of a yes vote?

Are there any current polls in Scotland that reflect the current situation?

Cheers

PF

Currently the yes vote is standing firm (yes, that means not really going up!) with the no vote dropping, don't knows increasing.

The latest Bitter Together poll showed only 29% in favour of current situation, 30% in favour of independence and 32% in favour of greater devolution (not on the table). I can't believe they released the results, bit of an own goal I think!

All to play for!

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So everyone has a bet and then they all vote yes

Aye, that's the plan - after they've put on a stripy skirt, painted their faces blue & white, bared their àrses in public, got pished and snapped the goalposts at Wembley...

XYY

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IG Index says 84% no (same as PP).

Where people put their money on the line is more relevant than any other indicator, thin trading or not.

Edited by GARCH

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Aye, that's the plan - after they've put on a stripy skirt, painted their faces blue & white, bared their àrses in public, got pished and snapped the goalposts at Wembley...

XYY

A bit predictable, shurely??? :wacko:

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