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Executive Sadman

Interesting Map

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and especially the portugese!

oMqzN.png

I dont know german demographics well, but its clear they tend to breed even less in the east than west

Portugal is in a fertility death spiral everywhere except the extreme south (maybe randy brit expats there?!)

Does seem much of a trend in the UK...

catholic bits of ulster are, as expected, the most obvious high birth rate areas.

What looks to be burnley has a high birth rate (large pakistani population?)

North lincs and stoke bring up the teenage single mother areas.

maybe a middle class baby boom in rutland,south northants and thames valley/swindon/m4 corridor area

Rural powys angelsey and some scottish area have high birth rate.

Leeds or is it york looks to have the only birth rate below 1.5 in the uk.

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Thanks. Figuring this out could tell us a lot.

Wider EU charts for 2000-2011 in this PDF (16pp) - Scandinavia, Ireland, east Europe included:

http://epp.eurostat....de=KS-SF-13-013

They go through the statistical elements, but no conclusion. I'd have thought tax credits for UK+France+Scandinavia incentivise baby making, but then fewer mothers in work in the south should too. Fertility rate of immigrants declining faster than natives'.

Catholics? Tell that to Poland. Brit ex-pats in south Portugal? Pensions may be premature, but ...

Dunno, it's a mystery - may be to do with peak immigration. And I'm sure debt levels are lurking somewhere. [edit: maybe access to energy - individual states may vary in competence.] Maybe we're breeding westward to get to Ellis Island.

Would be good to see similar stats for the US, which is also in overall fertility decline - and which states are bucking that trend.

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I'm sure there are plenty of theories about the falling birth rate (while other cultures thrive). I'd be interested to know the most logical one really is?

Could be destruction of the "family" unit, lack of finances, selfish individuals.... on and on. Personally I think finances is a big factor, and that includes house prices. If you're financially stable, with your own house and marital partner, then what naturally comes next? Children. But take away the home, or the secure job, and children will fall back in priority.

You have to be able to look after yourself before you can then help anyone else.

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Thanks. Figuring this out could tell us a lot.

Wider EU charts for 2000-2011 in this PDF (16pp) - Scandinavia, Ireland, east Europe included:

http://epp.eurostat....de=KS-SF-13-013

They go through the statistical elements, but no conclusion. I'd have thought tax credits for UK+France+Scandinavia incentivise baby making, but then fewer mothers in work in the south should too. Fertility rate of immigrants declining faster than natives'.

Catholics? Tell that to Poland. Brit ex-pats in south Portugal? Pensions may be premature, but ...

Dunno, it's a mystery - may be to do with peak immigration. And I'm sure debt levels are lurking somewhere. [edit: maybe access to energy - individual states may vary in competence.] Maybe we're breeding westward to get to Ellis Island.

Would be good to see similar stats for the US, which is also in overall fertility decline - and which states are bucking that trend.

Belgium and holland seem to be nearer the uk/france model too. Its quite striking how it changes along national borders.

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I'm sure there are plenty of theories about the falling birth rate (while other cultures thrive). I'd be interested to know the most logical one really is?

Could be destruction of the "family" unit, lack of finances, selfish individuals.... on and on. Personally I think finances is a big factor, and that includes house prices. If you're financially stable, with your own house and marital partner, then what naturally comes next? Children. But take away the home, or the secure job, and children will fall back in priority.

You have to be able to look after yourself before you can then help anyone else.

That's a moral view, one that most HPCers probably agree with by instinct. But the stats seem to contradict it - unless you're saying the UK system promotes fertility with all the high accommodation costs and debt servicing and selfishness and all.

Interesting issue.

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I'm sure there are plenty of theories about the falling birth rate (while other cultures thrive). I'd be interested to know the most logical one really is?

Could be destruction of the "family" unit, lack of finances, selfish individuals.... on and on. Personally I think finances is a big factor, and that includes house prices. If you're financially stable, with your own house and marital partner, then what naturally comes next? Children. But take away the home, or the secure job, and children will fall back in priority.

You have to be able to look after yourself before you can then help anyone else.

Interesting chart.

You make some good points. Finances and changing household dynamics play a part. Delaying marriage and starting a family, then some 'missing the boat.' Cost of housing (dual income household) may one day be looked upon with disbelief.

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So the only place west of the Rhine and north of the pyranees with a red birth rate is Midlothian :lol:

I do find that hard to believe. Where are these stats from and when ?

Seems every person i know over 30 around here is having kids. Not to mention the masses of Polish here having kids.

Its not as if the people around here are particularly careful when it comes to sex. Only yesterday there was an article in the daily mail based on a study that showed Edinburgh was the second most likely place in the UK to have a one night stand over the festive period.

On top of this getting children into schools here is far from easy - and nurseries and after school clubs are a nightmare.

Only anecdotal - but i do not get it at all. Edinburgh more in trouble than the likes of the Northwest highlands, Orkneys or Shetland

Nah - that's just mental to me.

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Belgium and holland seem to be nearer the uk/france model too. Its quite striking how it changes along national borders.

Yeah, bit freaky. The charts may be a cartoon that exaggerates the effect - but overall seems the trend is clear.

If state borders show effect, cause is probably down to domestic policies on tax & migration. But what's domestic? You'd have to lump Italy/Portugal/Spain/Germany together - all within the same currency zone - yet France/Ireland too. Some differences on Schengen, I guess.

Also would be interesting to see the stats for different states in Russia. Not holding my breath, comrade. Would fertility trend up in the central provinces, away from the European side toward Asia? Or maybe water sources are a problem there.

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I doubt that migration is an important factor. The charts seem to reflect national boundaries much more that places where migrants are concentrated, so national culture or laws would seem more likely.

Could it be school hours? For example, UK school hours tend to roughly parallel working hours, whereas school hours in Germany are typically 8am to 1pm, making it very difficult to work with school age children. Don't know how other countries do it. Maybe the countries with higher birth rates are better at helping women avoid sacrificing their career to have children, thus making child rearing more attractive?

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Only yesterday there was an article in the daily mail based on a study that showed Edinburgh was the second most likely place in the UK to have a one night stand over the festive period.

I know where I'm going next winter.

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Portuguese women in their 30s are a funny bunch. They work long hours and are very driven in their jobs, then they come home and try to maintain the same level of home cooking from scratch and (bordering on obsessive) cleaning that their much more time-rich grandmothers did. Portugal is a more homogenous society than the UK, and if one of the women tries to step out of line and let the house get a bit grubby she will be niggled and insulted by her friends and relatives.

Portugal also has one of the highest rates of university attendance in Europe, and many people continue their studies throughout much of their 20s. It's pretty common for young Portuguese to only finish education in their late 20s or early 30s, so the crucial early years of your career where you put in long hours and pay your dues while earning little money overlap exactly with the time that people in other countries would be starting families.

All of this doesn't leave much time and energy for children.

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Portuguese women in their 30s are a funny bunch. They work long hours and are very driven in their jobs, then they come home and try to maintain the same level of home cooking from scratch and (bordering on obsessive) cleaning that their much more time-rich grandmothers did. Portugal is a more homogenous society than the UK, and if one of the women tries to step out of line and let the house get a bit grubby she will be niggled and insulted by her friends and relatives.

Portugal also has one of the highest rates of university attendance in Europe, and many people continue their studies throughout much of their 20s. It's pretty common for young Portuguese to only finish education in their late 20s or early 30s, so the crucial early years of your career where you put in long hours and pay your dues while earning little money overlap exactly with the time that people in other countries would be starting families.

All of this doesn't leave much time and energy for children.

Yes, the education thing is common. South Korea has the highest uni attendance and lowest birth rate (maybe taiwan is lower, but those two tend to be bottom) Doesnt really explain the low german rate though.

Id never thought of Portugal as homogeneous. A lot of portugese in the Thetford area, many of them black/african portugese. Unless you mean socially rather than racially homogeneous.

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Yes, the education thing is common. South Korea has the highest uni attendance and lowest birth rate (maybe taiwan is lower, but those two tend to be bottom) Doesnt really explain the low german rate though.

I think women in East Asia are suffering from the same ultra-high expectations as those in Southern Europe (women expected to be perfect career women and as good at domesticity as their grandmothers simultaneously).

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Is that chart completely up to date? Iknow the birth rates had fallen off a cliff, but I thought they were bouncing back.

It's weird how national cultures are different though. Ignoringing immigrants (which are still only 10% of most coutries) it's still a bit weird in the UK to not get married or to only have one kid, but in Germany, there is general accceptance for the idea of not starting a familly if youre not really that way inclined, but if you do have a family, then it's probably two or three kids. In France, single child households are practically the norm (my subjective impression).

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I never think of the welsh as having red hair. I was surprised by the number in Belgium though. Must have been those Angles, or Jutes.

Not many gingers in Wales! Plenty in Scotland!

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oh yes, even lower there. im a bit colourblind so couldnt make it out at first. wonder why theyre not breeding?

The answer has finally dawned on me. It's obvious now I think of it. The birth rate is most impressive in Rutland and neighbouring Peterborough, and lowest in places like Edinburgh, Bath, Bristol, York because the former are bereft of any universities. In University cities female of breeding age demographics are skewed by all those women in full time education. Very few women in their 20s who give their address as Rutland are likely to be in full time education, by comparison.

Mystery solved (i think)

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.....over the last 25 years there has been no urgency to make up the numbers by reproducing ourselves, 'growth' I think they call it......they have been importing ready, willing and able to work and pay taxes, good healthy beings, all fully paid and educated by other countries......how would we like it if all our young, educated and able exited a brain drain to create prosperity elsewhere after all our investment put in? ;)

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/millions-old-tyres-are-dumped-near-empty-apartment-blocks-spanish-ghost-town-1467025

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That's a moral view, one that most HPCers probably agree with by instinct. But the stats seem to contradict it - unless you're saying the UK system promotes fertility with all the high accommodation costs and debt servicing and selfishness and all.

Interesting issue.

Or maybe with it's general child tax credits, housing benefit that increases the more kids you have

(I assume those people with nine bedroom houses for their 20 kids are actually having all their rent paid stilll?)

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