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Belfast Boy

Next House Price Crash?

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Ok, some people are calling the bottom of the housing market crash in Northern Ireland as 2013. Prices here seem to rising at a rate that is way above inflation and wage rises - does that mean this is the start of the next boom?

If so then, when will the next house price crash be?

This was an unprecedented boom and bust, but can we look at history to give us any clues?

Ps I don't think this house price crash is over yet - there is another bubble yet to burst - that would be the government debt bubble which is currently creating an artificial recovery with artificially high house prices ;)

Edited by Belfast Boy

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Ok, some people are calling the bottom of the housing market crash in Northern Ireland as 2013. Prices here seem to rising at a rate that is way above inflation and wage rises - does that mean this is the start of the next boom?

If so then, when will the next house price crash be?

This was an unprecedented boom and bust, but can we look at history to give us any clues?

Ps I don't think this house price crash is over yet - there is another bubble yet to burst - that would be the government debt bubble which is currently creating an artificial recovery with artificially high house prices ;)

I like Fred Harrison's 18 year cycle, 14 up, 4 down.

I think Government interference has skewed it slightly (QE, HTB etc) but if I can recall from his book, the Bust was predicted at 2008 and should have ended in 2012, followed by 14 years growth.

He relates it all to Land prices and advocates a land value tax which seems to me as a very sensible option.

( I might be slightly off on dates, feel free to correct me )

Definitely recommended reading for the budding HPC'er

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I think we have two slightly separate cycles going on here. London, including the south east and the rest.

For Fred s cycle to work, ie the 14 years of increase, you have to have experienced the significant crash. Most of the south of England didn't experience a crash of any great amount. Northern Ireland did experience a very significant crash and are now away below their long term relationship with the UK prices.

I believe the crash is over in NI but not the UK. I dont see the prices rising the way they are being reported in some of the surveys and I imagine some of the spikes (7% Nationwide) will be ironed out in their next report.

The question will be what effect will another correction in the UK (London and South East) have on the NI market?

From memory I don't think he talked about 14 years of growth as there was a period of stagnation in between, but its a while from I read it.

I also read his follow-up 'the depression of 2010' but it never lived up to the billing.

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I may have missed the bottom but I still think that prices are too high in Northern Ireland.

Thankfully the general population is only too happy to mortgage their lives away for bricks and mortar. Best of luck to them.

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Seriously. Have I gone back in time to 2007?

http://www.propertyn...Pen-The-Priory/

Ha!

A 1 and a half bedroom flat (I'm not calling it a 2 bedroom) in Belfast city center went on sale the other day for £175,000 - I think it's time just to invest your money elsewhere and just rent. Refuse to play the game - live an eventful life instead of being a debt slave.

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A terrace view of the main road and petrol fumes all day = must be a bargain.

Plus that estate behind this new apartment block too. Madness.

More like 80k a unit.

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IMO QE and help to buy have reinflated the bubble a fair whack. I can see things bumping along and when they increase interest rates next year, it'll all end in tears again with another crash.

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IMO QE and help to buy have reinflated the bubble a fair whack. I can see things bumping along and when they increase interest rates next year, it'll all end in tears again with another crash.

Great to hear from you again Subby. Hope everything is going well.

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Yeah, been away getting married and other "important" stuff ;)

Still come on as a lurker to see things every now and again :)

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IMO QE and help to buy have reinflated the bubble a fair whack. I can see things bumping along and when they increase interest rates next year, it'll all end in tears again with another crash.

Help to Buy is not available in NI, as far as I am aware.

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I think the crash in NI is over for now. Just my opinion. Prices wilbounce along at this level for the next 12-18 months. The govt debt bubble is a concern but TPTB have had an uncanny ability to avoid a crisis up to now so I wouldn't under estimate their ability to continue the charade. Ultimately IR's have to rise but when is the question.

The baby boomers won't live forever and many people will inherit homes and 'wealth'. Three score years and ten is still the average so the baby boomers will be departing in greater numbers over the next 2-10 years..... All in my personal opinion of course.

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I think the crash in NI is over for now. Just my opinion. Prices wilbounce along at this level for the next 12-18 months. The govt debt bubble is a concern but TPTB have had an uncanny ability to avoid a crisis up to now so I wouldn't under estimate their ability to continue the charade. Ultimately IR's have to rise but when is the question.

The baby boomers won't live forever and many people will inherit homes and 'wealth'. Three score years and ten is still the average so the baby boomers will be departing in greater numbers over the next 2-10 years..... All in my personal opinion of course.

I never thought they would manage to keep all the plates spinning this long.

The boomers will leave an over supply. Which will have to be bought by the over indebted next generation. Though with all the intervention by the TPTB - unless interest rates rise or lending tightens - it will have little or no effect.

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I never thought they would manage to keep all the plates spinning this long.

The boomers will leave an over supply. Which will have to be bought by the over indebted next generation. Though with all the intervention by the TPTB - unless interest rates rise or lending tightens - it will have little or no effect.

IMO the next generation is not entirely over indebted... There was a short bubble period which caught many out but there were plenty who avoided it. House prices in the north are now affordable imo and lending has been loosened somewhat.... IRs will rise but not for 18-24 months.... All in my humble opinion of course.

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