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Apologies if already posted:

Worst slump in housebuilding in London since Nineties crash

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/worst-slump-in-housebuilding-in-london-since-nineties-crash-a3668516.html

Quote

Developers registered to build just 2,494 homes in the capital between July and September, down 35 per cent on the same period last year, according to data from the National House Building Council.

It was the steepest quarterly fall since the depths of the early Nineties property crash.

 

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49 minutes ago, SoldTooSoon said:

with 100% mortgages so had massive negative equity but were still desperate to take it on the chin and move up.  some of them had already started having families and were using the one (small) bedroom for the child whilst the adults slept on a sofa bed in the lounge (tiny room with front door opening straight to the street).

 A guy I worked and his wife  paid £62,000 for a two bedroom flat above a shop in Kent in 1988. A few years later they sold for £27,000 they had put down some deposit when they bought and had made a few years capital repayments. He borrowed £34,000 over 7 years from his father in law to pay of the NE  pay the deposit and costs on the next place. Second time around they paid £56,000 for  a 3 bedroom house. 

What I do remember about NE in the early 90's was people quoting how much their house had dropped but then followed up with saying how much easier the mortgage was to pay as interested rates had dropped a lot and wages had increased. This time around wages are not rising much and interest rates will not be dropping. 

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4 hours ago, spyguy said:

I remember seeing places in Reading that had fallen from 80k to  20k in ~6 years.

That is Large !!

I do think London as an area  lost the most overall, but I also think certain properties everywhere especially small flats saw even bigger drops. 

When it was at the bottom and started to move up again these small places carried on languishing at rock bottom due to property being so cheap the FTB's of the time skipped these small places and went straight into a decent house. 

 

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4 hours ago, AnneD said:

They all believe it can't happen again, but it can and it will and it is.

Correct 

The only difference this time is the amounts of money involved are so much larger than 1989.

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Apologies if already posted but this article both flabbergasts and amazes and annoys me all at once!

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/estate-agent-says-londons-millennials-should-stop-buying-sandwiches-holidays-and-nights-out-in-order-a3690481.html

Maybe if prices weren't so f'ing high perhaps!

Also smacks ofdesperation...they know they're running out if first time buyers!

The perfect storm is about to unleash IMO

 

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4 minutes ago, deadlyavenger said:

Apologies if already posted but this article both flabbergasts and amazes and annoys me all at once!

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/estate-agent-says-londons-millennials-should-stop-buying-sandwiches-holidays-and-nights-out-in-order-a3690481.html

Maybe if prices weren't so f'ing high perhaps!

Also smacks ofdesperation...they know they're running out if first time buyers!

The perfect storm is about to unleash IMO

 

And just how does this help the wider economy? London would cease to function overnight.

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47 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

And just how does this help the wider economy? London would cease to function overnight.

The daily mirror have nailed it... Prices are too f'ing high! Well done daily mirror.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/no-sandwiches-arent-whats-stopping-11519793

Also the fact MSM are being obvious about this now is significant, no?

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19 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

Wow, the 'H' word in the MSM. Times are a changin'.

Holy moly...i didnt read the end of that article!

"So what's the best chance for first-time buyers actually getting onto the property ladder (especially as they've had to stop playing the lottery)?

According to research from the University of Reading earlier this year it's a massive house price crash."

!!!!!! :blink:

Edited by deadlyavenger
Formating

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23 minutes ago, deadlyavenger said:

Holy moly...i didnt read the end of that article!

"So what's the best chance for first-time buyers actually getting onto the property ladder (especially as they've had to stop playing the lottery)?

According to research from the University of Reading earlier this year it's a massive house price crash."

!!!!!! :blink:

Can we not get krusty to retort that that would mean we'd have high interest rates and all work as cleaners, so actually they're more affordable now, to which we retort well I'd rather buy at those prices and be a cleaner than carry 200k of negative equity whilst still being a cleaner. To which we'd get the death defying response, be careful what you wish for nobody wants 15%interest rates like in 1989 even though they weren't?

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Quote

 

London property market in REVERSE as buyers look elsewhere

The property market in London has been hit harder than any other region in the country by the sharp slowdown since Brexit, official figures reveal today. Making London the only place in England where prices went into reverse.

“London is now not just the worst performing English region, it’s a serial laggard. In the 12 months to September, prices in the capital rose at barely a third of the pace of those in the fastest-growing region.

“This shift is being driven by a steady flight of equity from London — and other previously overheated regions — to areas with greater affordability. ES

 

 

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8 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

 

Which in turn is making life untenable in the shires for 10s of millions. The London winners will loose their shirts as there is no one for them to sell to.

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New article on estateagenttoday. Copied a comment from an EA below too.

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/11/chains-getting-more-fragile-as-market-weakens-warns-estate-agency

 

Chains getting more fragile as market weakens, warns estate agency

The London-focussed estate agency Cluttons says chains in central London are becoming increasingly fragile thanks to general uncertainty in the wider economy leading to more nervous purchasers.

“The weaker appetite to scoop up deals is...making vendors nervous, with uncertainty trickling through to property chains, which appear to be increasingly fragile. In fact we have noted both buyers and sellers routinely dropping out of the sales process in recent months” says Faisal Durrani, head of research at Cluttons.

“They are instead opting to take a wait-and-see approach, while others are choosing to temporarily let their homes instead, creating separate challenges in the lettings market ... The fragility of property chains is one of the chief reasons that homes are taking longer to sell as many on the property ladder are unable to free up equity to make their next purchase” he adds.

The agency says the weakness in transaction volumes, especially in prime central London areas, reflects “the diminished appetite to invest even amongst the critical international buyer cohort.”

Cluttons says “the added complexity of the yet unquantifiable impact of Brexit is weighing heavily on the market, with ‘perfect storm’ like conditions created by the affordability issues faced by average Londoners and the near constant tinkering of the residential tax regime. The performance of values is being further hampered by political rumblings in Westminster and a tense global geopolitical landscape.”

The agency believes that the small increase in the Bank of England’s base rate will do little to destabilise the market but it also believes last week’s Budget announcement on the scrapping of stamp duty for most first time buyers will do little to help improve the London market overall.

As to next year and beyond, the agency says: “With no signs to suggest a reversal in critical issues such as the affordability of homes in the capital, or the uncertainty around Brexit, we expect prices to continue declining during the final months of 2017.

“With this in mind, we forecast residential values in prime Central London to end the year 2.8 per cent down on 2016, while next year is likely to remain at as well, with a marginal 0.7 per cent rise forecast.

“As we approach the end of the Brexit negotiations in Q1 2019, we expect clarity on Britain’s post-Brexit EU relationship to help boost and solidify overall buyer and investment activity and so a 2.0 per cent increase in average house prices is expected that year. Overall, to the end of 2021, we forecast cumulative growth of 7.3 per cent in average residential prices across prime Central London; which compares to growth of 16 per cent over the five year period between 2011 and 2016.”

Simon shinerock

  • 28 November 2017 07:38 AM

I think that given the current situation this forecast is optimistic, we are more likely to see steeper falls unless there is a change in sentiment. Tax is an issue, so is the mushroom like proliferation of new luxury apartments built for foreign investors whose appetite has waned. I don’t think London agents will get much sympathy in the current climate, time for the real agents out there to show their mettle, it ain’t retail luv, that’s for sure

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56 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

New article on estateagenttoday. Copied a comment from an EA below too.

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/11/chains-getting-more-fragile-as-market-weakens-warns-estate-agency

 

Chains getting more fragile as market weakens, warns estate agency

The London-focussed estate agency Cluttons says chains in central London are becoming increasingly fragile thanks to general uncertainty in the wider economy leading to more nervous purchasers.

“The weaker appetite to scoop up deals is...making vendors nervous, with uncertainty trickling through to property chains, which appear to be increasingly fragile. In fact we have noted both buyers and sellers routinely dropping out of the sales process in recent months” says Faisal Durrani, head of research at Cluttons.

“They are instead opting to take a wait-and-see approach, while others are choosing to temporarily let their homes instead, creating separate challenges in the lettings market ... The fragility of property chains is one of the chief reasons that homes are taking longer to sell as many on the property ladder are unable to free up equity to make their next purchase” he adds.

The agency says the weakness in transaction volumes, especially in prime central London areas, reflects “the diminished appetite to invest even amongst the critical international buyer cohort.”

Cluttons says “the added complexity of the yet unquantifiable impact of Brexit is weighing heavily on the market, with ‘perfect storm’ like conditions created by the affordability issues faced by average Londoners and the near constant tinkering of the residential tax regime. The performance of values is being further hampered by political rumblings in Westminster and a tense global geopolitical landscape.”

The agency believes that the small increase in the Bank of England’s base rate will do little to destabilise the market but it also believes last week’s Budget announcement on the scrapping of stamp duty for most first time buyers will do little to help improve the London market overall.

As to next year and beyond, the agency says: “With no signs to suggest a reversal in critical issues such as the affordability of homes in the capital, or the uncertainty around Brexit, we expect prices to continue declining during the final months of 2017.

“With this in mind, we forecast residential values in prime Central London to end the year 2.8 per cent down on 2016, while next year is likely to remain at as well, with a marginal 0.7 per cent rise forecast.

“As we approach the end of the Brexit negotiations in Q1 2019, we expect clarity on Britain’s post-Brexit EU relationship to help boost and solidify overall buyer and investment activity and so a 2.0 per cent increase in average house prices is expected that year. Overall, to the end of 2021, we forecast cumulative growth of 7.3 per cent in average residential prices across prime Central London; which compares to growth of 16 per cent over the five year period between 2011 and 2016.”

Simon shinerock

  • 28 November 2017 07:38 AM

I think that given the current situation this forecast is optimistic, we are more likely to see steeper falls unless there is a change in sentiment. Tax is an issue, so is the mushroom like proliferation of new luxury apartments built for foreign investors whose appetite has waned. I don’t think London agents will get much sympathy in the current climate, time for the real agents out there to show their mettle, it ain’t retail luv, that’s for sure

Luckily chains have just been propped up by the tories.

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On 11/10/2017 at 10:01 AM, Barnsey said:

London property 2nd highest risky investment bubble of ANY kind, Oz property in 1st place...

https://www.algebris.com/silver-bullet-interplanetary-bubbles/

current-bubbles1.png

Worth pointing out London bubble is over £1 trillion more than Oz and HK bubbles combined!

Thank you for this link.

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Nigerian prince left us high and dry over sale of our £5m mansion

Richard and Deborah Conway say they were left stranded on the housing ladder when Nigerian oil magnate Prince Arthur Eze withdrew from the deal on their £5 million home in Mill Hill. The couple claim they were forced to sell their home at a reduced price of £4.2 million, and are suing the prince to recover losses as well as “family expenses”. 

However the Nigerian royal, said to be worth £2 billion, denies breach of contract and is counter-suing the couple for the return of a £500,000 deposit. ES

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On 03/12/2017 at 4:56 AM, suresh786 said:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-61381006.html

11/30/2017, 3:05:37 PM
  • Price changed: from '£190,000' to '£180,000'
10/23/2017, 8:10:58 PM
  • Price changed: from '£199,000' to '£190,000
9/8/2017, 5:42:48 PM
  • Price changed: Offers in Excess of £200,000 £199,000  
8/19/2017, 5:27:59 PM
  • Initial entry found. 

Have to say, if that was mortgageable that would be pretty good space for the money imo, just 1/2 hour out of central London. But the killer is the fact it's cash only. You're not taking advantage of leverage and low interest rates. 

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19 minutes ago, Fletcher said:

Have to say, if that was mortgageable that would be pretty good space for the money imo, just 1/2 hour out of central London. But the killer is the fact it's cash only. You're not taking advantage of leverage and low interest rates. 

How many interest rate rises do you expect are coming, say in 2018?

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10 minutes ago, Thorn said:

How many interest rate rises do you expect are coming, say in 2018?

Not many. In the US, perhaps three. In the UK, maybe one. Brexit is the wildcard. If we get a soft Brexit, it's possible a mini boom could result, and the UK plays catch-up with the Fed. 

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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