TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 ...which means they will have to reduce to what the mkt will bear. (See what I did there?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Who will they sell to? Depends whether the banks decide to give out any more magic , free money to allow idiots to buy the places - even in a crashing market. If the banks decide it's "Game Over" - at least for the next 2-5 years - then great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Sure but after a large reduction (25%?) buyers will come out of woodwork, you'd expect. Imagine the marketing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Sure but after a large reduction (25%?) buyers will come out of woodwork, you'd expect. Imagine the marketing. I know...but if I look at my neck of the woods in France, we've had 25% reductions in many places...but the over 50s still won't sell quickly into the market as they think it will pick up in 1/2/3 etc yrs time. They have been following the market down for the last 5 years....this leads to buyers holding off as the crash is "slow" this time around. And the IR at near zero means many are not forced sellers, they can service their mortgage/debt at these levels. I remember the mid-90s crash...2-3 yrs max and prices went down by 40%+ ....In that scenario, it was easy for buyers to read and react as the papers were full of busted properties and -ve equity sob stories. This time...all hush, hush.... And the large 25% reduction will bring prices down to what ? - 2010 levels ? Not being greedy, but I'd like to see a bit more than that. Maybe as the super-over-leveraged BTL owners panic (those with > 50 properties), they wil cause a glut on the market and bring it's collapse (ie. 50%+). One can but hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This time Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 And the large 25% reduction will bring prices down to what ? - 2010 levels ? Probably more like 2013 levels around here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 (edited) I know...but if I look at my neck of the woods in France, we've had 25% reductions in many places...but the over 50s still won't sell quickly into the market as they think it will pick up in 1/2/3 etc yrs time. They have been following the market down for the last 5 years....this leads to buyers holding off as the crash is "slow" this time around. And the IR at near zero means many are not forced sellers, they can service their mortgage/debt at these levels. I remember the mid-90s crash...2-3 yrs max and prices went down by 40%+ ....In that scenario, it was easy for buyers to read and react as the papers were full of busted properties and -ve equity sob stories. This time...all hush, hush.... And the large 25% reduction will bring prices down to what ? - 2010 levels ? Not being greedy, but I'd like to see a bit more than that. Maybe as the super-over-leveraged BTL owners panic (those with > 50 properties), they wil cause a glut on the market and bring it's collapse (ie. 50%+). One can but hope 1. I didn't say it would be swift. Just something we can expect. 2. Divorce, Death and Displacement (new job elsewhere) will become our best friends 3. There will be much in the media. You'll see. 4. Did I say I expect no more than a 25% crash? I have said a thousand times we are likely #turningjapanese Edited September 22, 2015 by Killer Bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 1. I didn't say it would be swift. Just something we can expect. 2. Divorce, Death and Displacement (new job elsewhere) will become our best friends 3. There will be much in the media. You'll see. 4. Did I say I expect no more than a 25% crash? I have said a thousand times we are likely #turningjapanese All good , reasonable points. Agree this one won't be swift as I've been watching the spiral since 2008. I'm a bit like Sting, singing with Dire Straits in the 80s....howling in the background "I want my, I want my, I want my....HPC" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE10 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 All good , reasonable points. Agree this one won't be swift as I've been watching the spiral since 2008. I'm a bit like Sting, singing with Dire Straits in the 80s....howling in the background "I want my, I want my, I want my....HPC" Mark Knopfler wanted the HPC I think. Sting was more along the lines of "every mew you take, I'll be watching you" . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Que sera sera Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 (edited) Just been flicking through some old newspaper clippings (not originally mine). Flashback to 1992-93 (must have been approx that time from article content) when they were giving away Kensington property. Wonder if the John Vincent guy kept any holding. How he acquired it in first place. Guess the development was here-abouts in Kensington. 1 flat/maisonette for sale at guide price £1.9 something million. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-53226383.html Profile of John Hunter. https://uk.linkedin.com/pub/john-hunter/43/460/9a7 ..was the first to recognise the insatiable appetite, from a widespread international market, for a quality of residential product that retains the character of London's past. His first acquisition and flagship scheme at Observatory Gardens in Kensington set the tone for a new breed of "revival" developments. That appetite hasn't quit, helped by QE zirpy fury. Edited September 23, 2015 by Venger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 it all goes round in cycles doesn't it? despite the 'end of boom and bust' and similar claims, it all goes round in cycles timing the cycles and knowing their magnitude can't be predicted but, as sure as eggs are eggs, the cycles continue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Some good news everyone. Just had a little play with this amazing website at house.briskat.com. Anyone knows who designed it? Anyways, I went through all the London postcodes and it turns out that 50 out of 161 London postcodes are already YoY negative. As you all might have guessed, postcodes in WC, SW, W, EC and N2 are among the worst hit. Check out the charts below. In SW almost every single postcode district is negative YoY. What will be fascinating to see is how this tally of 50 out of 161 will change in the next LR data update. The suspense is killing me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 (edited) Some good news everyone. Just had a little play with this amazing website at house.briskat.com. Anyone knows who designed it? Anyways, I went through all the London postcodes and it turns out that 50 out of 161 London postcodes are already YoY negative. As you all might have guessed, postcodes in WC, SW, W, EC and N2 are among the worst BEST hit. Check out the charts below. In SW almost every single postcode district is negative YoY. What will be fascinating to see is how this tally of 50 out of 161 will change in the next LR data update. The suspense is killing me. Corrected for accuracy. Edited September 23, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Some good news everyone. Just had a little play with this amazing website at house.briskat.com. Anyone knows who designed it? Anyways, I went through all the London postcodes and it turns out that 50 out of 161 London postcodes are already YoY negative. As you all might have guessed, postcodes in WC, SW, W, EC and N2 are among the worst hit. Check out the charts below. In SW almost every single postcode district is negative YoY. What will be fascinating to see is how this tally of 50 out of 161 will change in the next LR data update. The suspense is killing me. Correct me if I am wrong, but a couple of those post codes are saying circa -40% and the chrash hasn't really got going yet ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Correct me if I am wrong, but a couple of those post codes are saying circa -40% and the chrash hasn't really got going yet ? You are correct. Though do bear in mind that some of these postcodes especially in WC and EC are absolutely tiny. In WC2H for instance, only 9 properties sold thus far this year. What this means is that the sample is too small to be considered statistically significant. Having said that, if you take WC as a whole, where 160 properties sold thus far this year, the Year on Year price change has been -20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 it all goes round in cycles doesn't it? despite the 'end of boom and bust' and similar claims, it all goes round in cycles timing the cycles and knowing their magnitude can't be predicted but, as sure as eggs are eggs, the cycles continue Here's another in John Hunter's Camden Hill, Royal Borough of Kensington, just reduced to £3 million. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52817744.html Some cycle. 'They didn't know what they were doing' (the call for buyers at ever sillier prices)' / 'They only wanted a home' (2008+). Best one was earlier this year with a house selling for just about £1.1m, and now back on market as a flip at £1.3m... and some hpcer claiming buyers are just 'wombles' who only want homes. Further investigation turned up info on the flipper lives in his own place worth circa £5m in Hyde Park. A cycle where banks are blamed and buyers innocent.. totally different to 1990s.. oh an prices at extremely painful new peaks. What struck me about the Camden Hill 50+ flats in prime, is they were sat empty/derelict for years.. even into the 80s boom. It suggests to me some owners sit on property/land because they happily content values all locked in, and rising. Then in HPC they scramble for money and have to sell for low prices. One house came to market in 2010 asking something like £60m, then POA, and it hadn't been lived in since 1970s. All derelict. Computer graphics showing what it could be like. Don't think it sold. Maybe owner will try again in next HPC. Perhaps explains why there's so few land plots available in this market too, at least in my area. Sat on them with forever HPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted September 23, 2015 Author Share Posted September 23, 2015 Some good news everyone. Just had a little play with this amazing website at house.briskat.com. Anyone knows who designed it? Anyways, I went through all the London postcodes and it turns out that 50 out of 161 London postcodes are already YoY negative. As you all might have guessed, postcodes in WC, SW, W, EC and N2 are among the worst hit. Check out the charts below. In SW almost every single postcode district is negative YoY. What will be fascinating to see is how this tally of 50 out of 161 will change in the next LR data update. The suspense is killing me. Not sure how this web site is good (house.briskat.com). It says that Kensington is down 30% and Fulham 46% ... I like the numbers, but they seem to be too good to be true ... Comments? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 (edited) Not sure how this web site is good (house.briskat.com). It says that Kensington is down 30% and Fulham 46% ... I like the numbers, but they seem to be too good to be true ... Comments? I dont care...made up or not, they make me happy Edited September 23, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This time Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Not sure how this web site is good (house.briskat.com). It says that Kensington is down 30% and Fulham 46% ... I like the numbers, but they seem to be too good to be true ... Comments? SW19 looks about right to me - everything's coming on at 2014+20% and getting reduced down to about 2014 levels before going SSTC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Not sure how this web site is good (house.briskat.com). It says that Kensington is down 30% and Fulham 46% ... I like the numbers, but they seem to be too good to be true ... Comments? As mentioned above, if you are looking at tiny postcode districts with too small of a sample, the numbers should be viewed with caution. It would perhaps help to zoom out and look at Greater London as a whole. Lets say for arguments sake that the majority of PCL postcodes are in WC, W and SW. Well, if you look at these postcode districts this is what you will find: W has come to a standstill at 1% YoY (3011 properties sold thus far in 2015) SW is in correction territory at -5% YoY (6316 properties sold thus far in 2015) WC is in a major correction at -20% YoY (160 properties sold thus far in 2015) Of these numbers SW is the most reliable because it has the most sales to make it statistically most relevant. However skeptical one might be with these numbers, they are directly derived from LR data. The next update will be fascinating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Here's another in John Hunter's Camden Hill, Royal Borough of Kensington, just reduced to £3 million. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52817744.html Some cycle. 'They didn't know what they were doing' (the call for buyers at ever sillier prices)' / 'They only wanted a home' (2008+). Best one was earlier this year with a house selling for just about £1.1m, and now back on market as a flip at £1.3m... and some hpcer claiming buyers are just 'wombles' who only want homes. Further investigation turned up info on the flipper lives in his own place worth circa £5m in Hyde Park. A cycle where banks are blamed and buyers innocent.. totally different to 1990s.. oh an prices at extremely painful new peaks. What struck me about the Camden Hill 50+ flats in prime, is they were sat empty/derelict for years.. even into the 80s boom. It suggests to me some owners sit on property/land because they happily content values all locked in, and rising. Then in HPC they scramble for money and have to sell for low prices. One house came to market in 2010 asking something like £60m, then POA, and it hadn't been lived in since 1970s. All derelict. Computer graphics showing what it could be like. Don't think it sold. Maybe owner will try again in next HPC. Perhaps explains why there's so few land plots available in this market too, at least in my area. Sat on them with forever HPI. That is the thing with cycles. It doesn't really matter what people do, the cycle continues. Sure, the cycle might be lengthened in duration and / or amplified or reduced in terms of size of peak / depth of trough and it might even be possible to pin the blame for that on to some participants in the market, but overall the cycle continues. That some cycles take more than a generation to play out is important to realise. It is clear for all to see that most of the London market is displaying the hallmarks of a bubble. It can't be confirmed as a bubble until the bubble bursts of course, but it definitely looks like one and is acting like one. Let's see where it goes next. We can only make our own prediction and act on the basis of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 I dont care...made up or not, they make me happy Its not made up. The data corresponds with LR data. Incidentally, the data also corresponds with the Market trends data on Rightmove (which in turn is derived from LR data). There is nothing made up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Is there a graph that shows the price data along with transaction volume? That would be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Is there a graph that shows the price data along with transaction volume? That would be interesting. I agree but as far as I can see the website doesnt have that option. They do however have a Number of Sold Properties tab. The sales volume will not be correct for the latest two to three months so dont get too excited if you see a sharp drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 What struck me about the Camden Hill 50+ flats in prime, is they were sat empty/derelict for years.. even into the 80s boom. It suggests to me some owners sit on property/land because they happily content values all locked in, and rising. Then in HPC they scramble for money and have to sell for low prices. One house came to market in 2010 asking something like £60m, then POA, and it hadn't been lived in since 1970s. All derelict. Computer graphics showing what it could be like. Don't think it sold. Maybe owner will try again in next HPC. Perhaps explains why there's so few land plots available in this market too, at least in my area. Sat on them with forever HPI. Campden Hill.* Coincidentally I've just been searching for that house I had in my memory banks... and it too is in Campden Hill. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-20045364.html Offers in Excess of £75,000,000 The photographs displayed are computer generated images which project what the property could look like. Okay I may have mixed up the time line... not since 70s... but was empty from 2001. 2011: The 60-room former ambassadorial residence has been empty since it was bought for £17million ten years ago. [..]Despite no improvements being made in that time, its value has rocketed by nearly 350 per cent. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2047782/Central-London-mansion-market-75m--needs-10m-renovation.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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