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Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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The apparent trending back up of the monthly and quarterly lines on the graph is not so crash-friendly. Far slower rises than the same time last year, but rises nonetheless. Something needs to change if the annual line is to continue down into negative territory.

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If 500k properties fall; all 400k properties will have to fall as well; repeat till you end up in your price bracket ...

Exactly; not irrelevant at all.

Then it taketh away

YouTube. @06:38 from 2006-07ish (uploaded YT 2008)

Millardy: This is so high end to make no real effect on where most people, where ordinary people are buying. This end of the market is just too high end for me.

Fancypants EA: Well if the prices rise at the top it create a vacuum so up come the prices of the properties just below that.

Market values are set at the margin. Anyone owner/buyer who doesn't understand that basic fact doesn't deserve to be alive, imo.

They tend to understand it easily enough in HPI forever and prices up and up month after month, but play fully dumb when buyers/sellers transact at lower prices.

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Prime country house market not recovering from election dip

Prime central London house prices appear to have plateaued in recent weeks, failing to recover from the quiet pre-general election period - now it appears the country house market is following suit.

Knight Frank says that despite the certainty provided by a majority government elected on May 7, activity and prices in the prime country house market have been “subdued” ever since.

Average values rose by 0.9 per cent between April and June, dipping the annual rate of growth for high-end rural properties to 2.3 per cent with the blame being put firmly on the stamp duty reforms introduced by George Osborne back in December.

“Whilst the surprise election result brought certainty to the property market, the anticipated increase in activity has not fed through yet” according to Rupert Sweeting, head of Knight Frank’s country department.

He says this may be down to vendors and purchasers having put their moving plans on hold prior to the election; if so, he believes the traditional high-end country sales period will be delayed, and should be seen during this month and August.

“This has happened more and more in the last two years contrary to the usual downturn in activity in the traditional holiday months” he says.

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2015/6/prime-country-house-market-not-recovering-from-election-dip

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"then it seems to me likely that an increase in people on low incomes are adding to demand demand in this way" probably should be "then it seems to me likely that an increased population, even the new people are on low incomes, are adding to demand in this way."

Increased population with a demand works well only for a certain section of society......very many more on the ground will find that rapid growth means an increasing lack of supply.........those that benefit hugely finacianally from rapid growth and the infastructure built up over many generations will have to deal with the social isues of a diminishing and no longer obtainable supply, supplying the needs, making and preserving a strong, fair and prosperous society....giving something back as well as solely taking.......or else people will walk.... no good reason to stay when quality of life is falling for growing numbers of people. ;)

Edited by winkie

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"then it seems to me likely that an increase in people on low incomes are adding to demand demand in this way" probably should be "then it seems to me likely that an increased population, even the new people are on low incomes, are adding to demand in this way."

Yeah growing population, higher demand = forever HPI. Sure.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3144639/Deeply-disrespectful-homeless-east-Europeans-set-camp-Hyde-Park-memorial-victims-7-7-bombing-eating-dinner-plaque-using-site-toilet.html

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Sealed bids are happening in Hackney on the better properties post-election :(

I have been watching the market and the gentrification is spreading out to E5 in a big way now as most of the stock in E8/E9 appears to be fully priced (£1.9m for a house in Victoria Park!). A friend of mine has been outbid 3 times this month, with 2 of the houses going for £100,000 over asking price. The agents' strategies appears to be to price to invite buyers and then people are bidding blind over the asking price.

Who would have thought murder mile is now the hip place for mumsnetters to live! Historically it was a no go:

http://davehill.typepad.com/claptonian/gentrification/

http://tylerwetherall.com/2013/12/24/uk-clapton-from-murder-mile-to-hipster-village/

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/jul/07/chatsworth-road-frontline-hackney-gentrification

http://www.eastlondonlines.co.uk/2014/02/clapton-frontline-of-class-cleansing-in-the-east-end/

With London Fields now at £1000/sq ft for the good properties I can see Clapton (closer to £500/sq ft) going this way purely correcting against the rest of the local market.. Pretty scary really, and what will it mean for the locals? Poor sods will be booted out to Essex I guess, and new luxury flats built.

It's toxic - low supply, high demand, credit tap gushing out money. When will it end?

Mark my words, E5 and E3 are the postcodes in London to watch now to see where this heads as they are the traditionally worse areas of Hackney & East London. These should be the first to crash if we have a wobble.

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Yeah growing population, higher demand = forever HPI. Sure.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3144639/Deeply-disrespectful-homeless-east-Europeans-set-camp-Hyde-Park-memorial-victims-7-7-bombing-eating-dinner-plaque-using-site-toilet.html

Vulgar I have no idea of the magnitudes and thought I made that clear (I really couldn't say which factor will overwhelm the other in the short term). I would be interested if you could explain how people on low income who pay rent don't contribute to demand though. Is there an error in the argument or do just know the impact is negligible?

I understand most £1m+ properties aren't selling, but how many are downsizing to smaller properties in the same area? What other mechanism are you envisaging to link them? Don't you agree it is likely the demand for small flats is mainly from FTBs and landlords? If you were a buyer in London with a budget of 350 and you notice a vendor cuts asking from £1m to 750 do you think "oh well I'll buy that then, even though my budget is 350" or do you hold out for a proportionate reduction in asking price in flats within your budget (or offer 20-30-40% below asking), even though you observe far fewer price reductions at this level, and presumably understand a significant part of the reductions at the higher end is due to one-off policies which have made buying in this range less attractive, and therefore the extent to which a trend is emerging is unclear? I can see that under these circumstances more people may decide to wait and see what happens next, which would eventually lead to price reductions at the lower end. Eventually!

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You make your own market decisions; obviously you're narky with me about something. I shall make my own market decisions.

I'm not playing up to a 2013 London buyer who claims to be in selling that property now, in order to buy a cheaper property, putting some of the lump profit down 2013 HPI profit down.

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I don't understand why you [someone with such strong views (based on serious thought) on house prices] refuse to explain to me (someone who is sympathetic to your arguments about what will happen, and shares your hope that is does happen - as I would benefit from falls, but more importantly as I would prefer a return to economic activity being determined by markets) why you think my reasoned objections to some of your reasoning is wrong.

You seem to just want to insult people and make a point of explaining at length why you refuse to discuss with certain people based on who you think they are rather than engaging with what they say. Seems silly given this is a discussion forum.

Is it just so offensive that I am reducing demand for property in London by downsizing that you mustn't either explain why his reasoning is wrong, or admit that you might be wrong?

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I don't understand why you [someone with such strong views (based on serious thought) on house prices] refuse to explain to me (someone who is sympathetic to your arguments about what will happen, and shares your hope that is does happen - as I would benefit from falls, but more importantly as I would prefer a return to economic activity being determined by markets) why you think my reasoned objections to some of your reasoning is wrong.

Have you just learned to read and write ?

Maybe if you were clear and precise people might understand you.

You just sounds like....like....like...a bit of a git.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I don't understand why you [someone with such strong views (based on serious thought) on house prices] refuse to explain to me (someone who is sympathetic to your arguments about what will happen, and shares your hope that is does happen - as I would benefit from falls, but more importantly as I would prefer a return to economic activity being determined by markets) why you think my reasoned objections to some of your reasoning is wrong.

You seem to just want to insult people and make a point of explaining at length why you refuse to discuss with certain people based on who you think they are rather than engaging with what they say. Seems silly given this is a discussion forum.

Is it just so offensive that I am reducing demand for property in London by downsizing that you mustn't either explain why his reasoning is wrong, or admit that you might be wrong?

Take your punts, make your choices. :)

I'll admit I'm wrong all day if it makes you happy - but if we get any HPC, you will know I'm in cash-savings and positioned to get a home at better value. That's markets. :)

I bought a flat in 2013. I'm selling and buying somewhere cheaper and further out. So I've benefitted (at least if the transaction goes ahead) from house price increases. I would benefit from further increases. Maybe some of them would think it was hypocritical to seemingly denounce the thing I've benefitted from, but I don't think that follows. I've discussed some of these things before and don't think I've offended anyone.

Maybe I'm sensitive, but I'm not really sure your viewpoint differs from mine, or how your viewpoint is blunt reality, when neither of us know what the future will bring.

"Have you sold your 2013 property purchase for your HPI profit yet?"

The sale is ready and the purchase is almost ready. I could still sell to rent and my question about this was sincere. I don't know why you wouldn't answer and just said you determined it wasn't for me. I've tried to compare renting versus buying, but if you take it seriously it's complicated. If I rent where do I invest my money? What probability should I attach to various falls and rises (in property, in SW, in CR, prices in FTSE100/250/dozens of other markets...? How much should prices fall and by when, before I consider buying? I tried to model this, but gave up. I think you can only take a punt - if it's obvious prices will fall 20-30% you sell. I can't predict, but buying a cheaper place will do well if prices rise or fall modestly. I'll have missed out if prices fall significantly or rise quicker than equities, but should still be OK. In any case it should be a better place to live, which I think was a bigger factor than the financial side of it.

Sale agreed on my flat and offer accepted on another flat. Obviously either could fall through regardless of what I want. Buyer has had survey and probably incurred some legal costs so probably fairly unlikely to withdraw. I have paid for survey and some legal costs. I may still withdraw from the purchase. You have prompted me to reconsider renting!

There are several purposes to the move. The main one is to be closer to work. Financial considerations play a part too.

I have given renting a lot of thought. I've had bad experiences renting previously though. One of the things which worries me most is the logistics. Once I exchange I will have only a short period to find a suitable place. Looking at the places for rent there aren't many available. If the rental adverts are anything like the sale adverts, many aren't even available - they just want you to call so they are on your list to spam you with anything. When renting previously I have been forced to move at difficult times. I suppose I am probably prepared to pay a little for convenience and stability of my living arrangements.

Another worry is I'm not sure my income is high income to convince a letting agent I can afford it. I know some insist on rent not exceeding a certain percentage of income, and not necessarily accepting paying rent for the whole tenancy term up front. Do you think I'm worrying excessively?

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Have you just learned to read and write ?

Maybe if you were clear and precise people might understand you.

You just sounds like....like....like...a bit of a git.

I couldn't tell if your errors above were intentional. Kudos to you if they were - very amusing.

Sorry if I had to be a bit cumbersome to clarify I few points (I was trying to be so precise that it wouldn't be possible to misquote me). Vulgar keeps saying HPI forever to whatever I say, so I just tried to explain that HPI is bad and that I would prefer falls.

Could I interest you in a discussion about house prices?

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Obviously I'm not going to enter any serious discussion with you. Also this is not the thread for it anyway.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/205344-the-moral-primacy-of-debt/page-4#entry1102743286

I still can't work out whether you've sold your flat yet. £250K in 2013 was it. I've just got a vision of it being in one of those blocks of prefab unconventional construction some of the Mumnetters are trying to sell for silly high prices. Let us know when you've sold it.

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oh no ... :lol::lol::lol:

http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/uk-country-house-market-2015070110693.html

The report also reveals that prime gross yields remained at 2.96% for the second month running and high stock levels in some areas means setting realistic asking rents has become more important.

‘One example is high stock levels in some areas, the result of landlords having waited for clarity around the result of the vote before deciding whether to let their properties,’ said Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank.

‘The health of the prime central London lettings market is linked to that of the UK economy and some perceive it to be on a firmer footing under a majority Conservative government, which has caused stock levels to rise,’ he explained.

‘Properties for sale are also moving across to the lettings market, the result of some vendors choosing the rental option after a post-election spike in prices failed to

The result of higher stock levels is that prospective tenants are shopping around to a greater extent than before, which means setting realistic asking rents has become increasingly important,’ he added.

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Is it the "noone knows the future so buy a house" gambit

Illogical b#llocks are coming thick and fast these days. It's like 2006 again!

Edited by Si1

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I agree it would be silly to buy a property for that reason. I think I made it pretty clear that isn't my reason for buying and I'm not prepared to take a punt on property prices (I simply don't know what they will do next).

I would only be prepared to sell to rent if I were prepared to take a punt on significant falls in my target properties happening soon. I am not taking a punt, because my decision does not require one particular outcome. It gives me some protection from falls and rises, which seems sensible to me given the possible range of the scale and timing of the crash.

I could almost pay off the mortgage now on the new property. If prices drop 70% by Christmas obviously it would have been nice not to own, but I would still be in a fairly decent position to stay put or upsize if I wanted. If prices fall but not so far, or not so fast, I'll be in a very good position. If prices stay the same or rise I'll probably be worse off, though will have some protection.

I would have preferred an even cheaper property. But I lost out to other bidders (Not just because I offered less. I might have been prepared to offer more. But being in a chain made me less desirable than FTBs). Of course I am more likely to face this problem in the future as I still own, but it does give a measure of protection as prices rise again. It's quite common for sales to fall through, so you might position yourself well, but struggle to buy for a while just through the bad luck of vendors pulling out. Then if prices start rising again presumably the risk of gazumping increases. Just as few sellers get out at the top, presumably few buyers get in at the bottom. Again I imagine this is a small risk, but something to consider and try to model if you are willing to consider a range of outcomes rather than being convinced of one particular outcome occurring.

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House prices dipped by 0.2% in June, bringing the annual rate of growth to its lowest level in two years, figures from Nationwide show.

The UK’s largest building society said prices were up by 3.3% on June 2014’s figure, a drop from the 4.6% recorded in May and well below the recent high of 11.8% hit 12 months ago. The average price of a UK home is now £195,055, the society said.

Source

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I agree it would be silly to buy a property for that reason. I think I made it pretty clear that isn't my reason for buying and I'm not prepared to take a punt on property prices (I simply don't know what they will do next).

I would only be prepared to sell to rent if I were prepared to take a punt on significant falls in my target properties happening soon. I am not taking a punt, because my decision does not require one particular outcome. It gives me some protection from falls and rises, which seems sensible to me given the possible range of the scale and timing of the crash.

I could almost pay off the mortgage now on the new property. If prices drop 70% by Christmas obviously it would have been nice not to own, but I would still be in a fairly decent position to stay put or upsize if I wanted. If prices fall but not so far, or not so fast, I'll be in a very good position. If prices stay the same or rise I'll probably be worse off, though will have some protection.

I would have preferred an even cheaper property. But I lost out to other bidders (Not just because I offered less. I might have been prepared to offer more. But being in a chain made me less desirable than FTBs). Of course I am more likely to face this problem in the future as I still own, but it does give a measure of protection as prices rise again. It's quite common for sales to fall through, so you might position yourself well, but struggle to buy for a while just through the bad luck of vendors pulling out. Then if prices start rising again presumably the risk of gazumping increases. Just as few sellers get out at the top, presumably few buyers get in at the bottom. Again I imagine this is a small risk, but something to consider and try to model if you are willing to consider a range of outcomes rather than being convinced of one particular outcome occurring.

Waffle is abuse

Do you have a point?

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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