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Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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The 22% drop wouldn't surprise me. The financial system revolves around credit. Credit rushes into housing and the stock market first, pushing those 'assets' to unbelievable highs. The supply vs demand thing for HPI is ******** personally as the expansion of credit tracks the housing boom & GDP from 60's onwards.

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Mass media picking up the story; the Prime London Fear phase is here; massive fire sale is coming ... :lol::lol::lol:

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/house-prices-plummeting-in-londons-most-expensive-boroughs-but-going-up-in-the-suburbs-10315766.html

House prices plummeting in London's most expensive boroughs, but going up in the suburbs

Figures from the Land Registry have shown that house prices have fallen dramatically since last autumn in London's most expensive boroughs - while prices have rocketed up in suburban areas across the country.

Kensington and Chelsea, the borough that is itself a byword for wealth and luxury, has seen house prices drop by 16 per cent since September last year.

Edited by Damik

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Same LSL report:

http://www.ftadviser.com/2015/06/11/mortgages/mortgage-data/house-prices-hit-a-high-but-london-growth-slips-Ox9MCL4dI2JevuWf09BtcM/article.html

Home values in Kensington and Chelsea are now 16 per cent below their autumn 2014 peak, as higher stamp duty bites.

Another paper with the same LSL report:

http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252798/5/Industry_in_depth/Kensington_&_Chelsea_falls_16pc_below_2014_peak.htm

Edited by Damik

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90% or even more of the population is unaffected by prime London falls/rises. I am desperately waiting for the suburbs to fall. Don't know if it is only a question of time or the government's effort of devolution?

Edited by Fairyland

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90% or even more of the population is unaffected by prime London falls/rises. I am desperately waiting for the suburbs to fall.

The falls have to start somewhere ... give it a few months when the fear phase is here

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The problem with these people not buying prime London properties is that these people maybe buying property outside London and therefore pushing the prices up there.

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The problem with these people not buying prime London properties is that these people maybe buying property outside London and therefore pushing the prices up there.

We don't don't know if actual sales are happening or asking prices have gone up in anticipation of London money?

I suppose this spin may be to encourage suburban fence sitters to jump in before they are completely priced out?

Edited by Fairyland

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What's somewhat ironic is that LSL-Acad was always dismissed on this forum as a VI ramping index because it was showing higher house price growth than Land Reg, particularly in London. The reason for that though was the methodology, and it's that same methodology which is now resulting in greater headline falls in prime London than Land Reg is showing.

Are you saying some people on this thread only like to take into account data/reports that will support their theory of crashes?? And choose to ignore the reports pointing the other way??

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Are you saying some people on this thread only like to take into account data/reports that will support their theory of crashes?? And choose to ignore the reports pointing the other way??

Again you show you do not understand economical cycles.

The HPI kicked off in 1995 (rental yield raised to 15%). There was a crash outside of London/SE in 2008 (rental yield rising to 6%/9%) . The London HPI derivation maximised in 2013 (rental yield falling to 3%) . Prime London prices culminated in 2014 and now they are 22% down in 2015.

Arguing that other parts of London have not culminated yet and therefore there is no HPC is just plain silly and it misses the point of the cycles.

if you are looking for a perfect evidence of London crash come back here in 24 months. Based on your mind set you just waste time here. Is it because the Prime London EAs are going out of business and you have lost your job?

Edited by Damik

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Are you saying some people on this thread only like to take into account data/reports that will support their theory of crashes?? And choose to ignore the reports pointing the other way??

Obviously in the rising market you are looking for first signs of falls. In falling market you are looking for first signs of rises.

Looking for signs of rises at the top before turn of the cycle is plain silly as the market has been rising for the half of the cycle at the first place.

Somehow you confuse your self with democratic elections to look for 51%/49% winner.

Also bear in mind that the largest derivations are at the top of the bubbles. Meaning the largest rises and falls are just around the top. Exactly what we have seen in 2013 and 2015 in London.

Edited by Damik

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News of that 22% reduction is good. And it has come at the right time for many on this thread. But again beware premature congratulation. According to that same report, prices in London suburbs are hitting new highs. It may not last, but it's as many on here have said - zone 1 stagnant, zones 2-6 still crazy.

What I still can't get my head around is why people are paying a million quid to live on streets like this, houses which back in the mid-90s were selling for 70K or even less:

BeckRoadE84RE.jpg

Sold Sept 2014 £1,026,000 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=37680350&sale=52273112&country=england

For sale £920,000: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-51499760.html

Streetview: https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.53684,-0.058017,3a,75y,125.07h,88.93t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s003ZnCgMHq0etowaCVkh9A!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

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I have a BSc Econ from a redbrick.

In that guess give us a citation for (sic) "bubble theory" Edited by Si1

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What I still can't get my head around is why people are paying a million quid to live on streets like this, houses which back in the mid-90s were selling for 70K or even less:

Lack of housing supply continues to support a rigged market?

Do you or anyone else have a chart for London average earnings Vs house prices? I've seen the one Halifax do. And Nationwide do a PE to prices calculation too. Are there any others?

Rather than wages maybe it would be more useful to have spending power or affordability. House prices would have diverged a lot from wages, but when you take into account interest rates being low and mortgage rates have been dropping for a few years, exactly how affordable is London?

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What I still can't get my head around is why people are paying a million quid to live on streets like this, houses which back in the mid-90s were selling for 70K or even less:

BeckRoadE84RE.jpg

Indeed bizarre. Million £ and they can not even buy new door ... ???

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I have a BSc Econ from a redbrick.

I've never encountered a classically trained economist who understands real economics

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I've never encountered a classically trained economist who understands real economics

Not strictly true. I've studied it as well. I just dismissed a lot of what I was 'taught' as suffering from a complete lack of critical thinking.

Case in point - my tutor couldn't understand when I challenged him on his understanding of supply curves and their effect on prices when it comes to software, which was at the time still a fairly immature market. His refusal to accept that there were markets where his classical understanding of pricing could be turned on it's head was a further support to my theory that University 'educations' are pretty worthless these days in terms of actually attempting to nurture ideas and forward our understanding.

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Indeed bizarre. Million £ and they can not even buy new door ... ???

That's no. 17, Damik. The million quid one is no. 9, a little further down the street.

And then we have instances like this - tart up a house, put the magic words 'newly refurbished' in the first line of the EA blurb, and ask almost twice the price of any other property that has sold on the street in the past.

29GattonRoadSW170EXb.jpg

29GattonRoadSW170EX.jpg

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-50423482.html

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And still arguing that prices are rising in rising market cycle. :ph34r::ph34r::ph34r: ...

I'm stating facts not arguing.

That LSL report you fell in love with also stated what I have been saying all along. Prices in suburbs reached new highs.

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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