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Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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I really want to believe in the London crash but I just looked at the london LR stats expecting to see a real fall.

What I got was:

Peak at August 503.68

Fell 1% to 496.0

Climbed back up to near peak, 503.4

Sure sales volumes are going down the pan , 26% for January YOY !!!!!, but prices are not insane, but MENTAL.

NOTE: Thats the LR data for greater london. Places like chelsea have say a 2% drop but whoopey ***ing do

What did Aprils figure for London change to ?

I have come round to just accepting that the bust is going to be global and massive, Uk house prices are just one tiny part of the ecosystem, and not even that important anymore, London will be a sideshow. Still a PITA if you are waiting to buy though.

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I really want to believe in the London crash but I just looked at the london LR stats expecting to see a real fall.

What I got was:

Peak at August 503.68

Fell 1% to 496.0

Climbed back up to near peak, 503.4

Sure sales volumes are going down the pan , 26% for January YOY !!!!!, but prices are not insane, but MENTAL.

NOTE: Thats the LR data for greater london. Places like chelsea have say a 2% drop but whoopey ***ing do

What did Aprils figure for London change to ?

LR figures are holding up as majority of the sales are probably cash or HTB(new builds)? HTB equity loans actually make the property 20% cheaper for the buyer. In a way it is similar to shared ownership as in you own 80% of the property value.

Edited by Fairyland

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I have come round to just accepting that the bust is going to be global and massive, Uk house prices are just one tiny part of the ecosystem, and not even that important anymore, London will be a sideshow. Still a PITA if you are waiting to buy though.

I think we all agree on that.

The big question is will such an event make our money worthless or will we see 50% collapse in house prices.

I you look at the Is the shires collapsing thread it looks like the West midlands have not gone up now in decade...maybe buying there can mitigate any rish ( if you can find someone to sell at 2005 prices ) ?

It looks like the shires have topped out but if the number of SOLD signs at the crayz asking prices I see and converted inbto actual sales we might see another leg up ( as per London ),

I have no idea what to do/think anymore.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Some/many new builds are owned by HAs who have longer holding power. Some also have intermittent renting schemes that rent out at 80% of market value. Tenancies can be as long as 5 years with no buying commitment required from tenants side.

My only hope is as the HAs lure good tenants with 20% discount and as HB falls (benefit cap further cuts) BTL portfolios may take a hit. This can cause drops.

Edited by Fairyland

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LR figures are holding up as majority of the sales are probably cash or HTB(new builds)? HTB equity loans actually make the property 20% cheaper for the buyer. In a way it is similar to shared ownership as in you own 80% of the property value.

I dont buy this "cash buyer" nonsense. Anyone with 500K of cash isnt stupid enough to pay these prices.

It's all speculative over levered money if you ask me.

This will not end well, as per 2007,

I've said before if you take the 2007 house prices + Northern Wreck 120% mortgages then the money being lend out by some banks on flats/houses in London is equivalent to these insane NR mortgages. With wages stagnant and the cost of living much higher ( countered by lower interest rates ), then we are back at the point the banking system collapsed....except this time it is the government ( and therefore us ) that have the problem.

The banksters have right royally f***ked us over for a 2nd time.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I think we all agree on that.

The big question is will such an event make our money worthless or will we see 50% collapse in house prices.

I you look at the Is the shires collapsing thread it looks like the West midlands have not gone up now in decade...maybe buying there can mitigate any rish ( if you can find someone to sell at 2005 prices ) ?

It looks like the shires have topped out but if the number of SOLD signs at the crayz asking prices I see and converted inbto actual sales we might see another leg up ( as per London ),

I have no idea what to do/think anymore.

This a boom in making in the shires to catch up with London. Recovery being spread out of London.

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I dont buy this "cash buyer" nonsense. Anyone with 500K of cash isnt stupid enough to pay these prices.

It's all speculative over levered money if you ask me.

This will not end well, as per 2007,

I've said before if you take the 2007 house prices + Northern Wreck 120% mortgages then the money being lend out by some banks on flats/houses in London is equivalent to these insane NR mortgages. With wages stagnant and the cost of living much higher ( countered by lower interest rates ), then we are back at the point the banking system collapsed....except this time it is the government ( and therefore us ) that have the problem.

The banksters have right royally f***ked us over for a 2nd time.

If the LR figures are just for zone1 then I don't know. But if they are for all zones then many of them may have cashed in zone1 and brought something outside zone1.

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This a boom in making in the shires to catch up with London. Recovery being spread out of London.

Winchester market is utterly deluded at the moment, 350K for a 60m2 new build 2 bed terrace. Has to be sold off plan overseas or London money.

Not too long ago you could retire in your early 50s if you had £350K, now all it gets you is storage problems.

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This a boom in making in the shires to catch up with London. Recovery being spread out of London.

That boom alreayd caught up. I saw no end of sales going through at insane prices last year, I know of 2 houses that sold to londoners at 2007++ prices.

The sales figures are collapsing and if you look at RM no end of sales are fallign through and some days 40% of listings are drops !!!

Without any sales in London, no one is moving to the shires :lol:

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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That boom alreayd caught up. I saw no end of sales going through at insane prices last year, I know of 2 houses that sold to londoners at 2007++ prices.

The sales figures are collapsing and if you look at RM no end of sales are fallign through and some days 40% of listings are drops !!!

Without any sales in London, no one is moving to the shires :lol:

So the lion had his kill and the carcass is being thrown by the media -

Reading house prices rising faster than properties in London

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Is that because london house prices are falling :lol:

I personally think we are seeing the last dregs of people who have dropped their london price from mega bubble insane to mega bubble insane less 10% and managed to sell and are now moving to the shires thinking they are getting a bargain on a house that locals would be lucky to pay half for,

Have a look at the "are the shires crashing" thread for what is happening in the North West/East ( surely they are free from this terrible london centric QE bubble money ), they are 20%-25% DOWN and look like slipping further now

The shires are more likely to catch up with them now as will london, which will mean a 50% haircut for those savvy chinese investprs.

I am amazed some chinese aren't on here asking us our opinion on London prices, are we blocked in China ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-52600832.html

Is that a new thing? I mean, the developer prices for new builds are in lala land usually, but still.

Under flight path of city airport. Prolly explains the price. Went for a walk round north Greenwich the other day. Amazed how much space there is for development. Not sure I'd like to live round there!

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Silly me, didn't realise a moment ago, carcass is being thrown to greedy BTLers savvy investors in anticipation of London HB tenants displacement.

Edited by Fairyland

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Silly me, didn't realise a moment ago, carcass is being thrown to greedy BTLers savvy investors Frank Lampard in anticipation of London HB tenants displacement.

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Winchester market is utterly deluded at the moment, 350K for a 60m2 new build 2 bed terrace. Has to be sold off plan overseas or London money.

Not too long ago you could retire in your early 50s if you had £350K, now all it gets you is storage problems.

You should print that up as a T-Shirt and send it to Russell Brand to wear on TV. The young really need to get a grasp on what you have just said, it is their only hope.

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I think we all agree on that.

The big question is will such an event make our money worthless or will we see 50% collapse in house prices.

I you look at the Is the shires collapsing thread it looks like the West midlands have not gone up now in decade...maybe buying there can mitigate any rish ( if you can find someone to sell at 2005 prices ) ?

It looks like the shires have topped out but if the number of SOLD signs at the crayz asking prices I see and converted inbto actual sales we might see another leg up ( as per London ),

I have no idea what to do/think anymore.

Massive deflation should make money hold it`s value?

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Hi, I've been lurking on this thread for the last 6 months and only now felt the urge to register to post.

I tend to agree that prime London has come off its highs of last summer, but I would hardly call it a crash, maybe a readjustment is a better term.

The rest of Zone 1 seems to have done the same, risen loads til summer, then come off a couple of percent and ever since flatlined.

However, in my experience the rest of London (Zone 2-6) is not following the same route. The trend until the end of last year was the same; peak in summer, small retracement in autumn/winter. The difference is that since the start of this year I have seen the market pick up again in terms of buyer interest and prices. Quite a few properties are going for the asking prices and more often than not going to sealed bids. Maybe, after a few months Zones 2-6 will realise that Zone 1 is no longer rising and they too will reach a price ceiling.

I have seen plenty of price reductions on rightmove etc but these tend to be on properties where the vendor is just flying kites and hoping for an overseas investor to snap it up. Anything priced the same as what it would have sold for last Summer seems to be going SOLD STC farily quickly.

I personally don't feel a crash is coming anytime soon. We will see flatlined prices and possibly a very small increase going forward.

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Hi, I've been lurking on this thread for the last 6 months and only now felt the urge to register to post.

I tend to agree that prime London has come off its highs of last summer, but I would hardly call it a crash, maybe a readjustment is a better term.

The rest of Zone 1 seems to have done the same, risen loads til summer, then come off a couple of percent and ever since flatlined.

However, in my experience the rest of London (Zone 2-6) is not following the same route. The trend until the end of last year was the same; peak in summer, small retracement in autumn/winter. The difference is that since the start of this year I have seen the market pick up again in terms of buyer interest and prices. Quite a few properties are going for the asking prices and more often than not going to sealed bids. Maybe, after a few months Zones 2-6 will realise that Zone 1 is no longer rising and they too will reach a price ceiling.

I have seen plenty of price reductions on rightmove etc but these tend to be on properties where the vendor is just flying kites and hoping for an overseas investor to snap it up. Anything priced the same as what it would have sold for last Summer seems to be going SOLD STC farily quickly.

I personally don't feel a crash is coming anytime soon. We will see flatlined prices and possibly a very small increase going forward.

Is that you Padders?

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Can't recall if I've posted this yet - I know I intended to. Perhaps a market playing out as I expect it will here. Let's have some competition - you know.. a market. There's not endless numbers of buyers at these asking prices.

Lol - thanks for posting that Venger!

Funny thing is I was thinking this could happen where people start to "see value" in Chelsea or something :lol:

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I hope you guys are right but I'm still seeing stuff going at silly silly prices. Take a look at this. This is not prime London but most likely a symptom of the madness that is happening in central London.

First sold in 2001 for £278,000, sold again in 2008 for £480,000

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=52471340&sale=17608505&country=england

Under Offer within days at an A/P of £715,000.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-52471340.html

Totally bonkers, its a 3-bed semi FFS!

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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