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Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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How about 2002-2004 prices, which is where my part of the country fell back to and remain stuck there.

This is what I mean; the London price falls to 2012 prices is about 30/40%.It will create so much panic and fear we can go from there to even 2004 prices.

If there was not crazy rise of 2013 I would believe London could stay flat. But the 2013 made the London prices completely removed from any kind of reality and common sense.

Edited by Damik

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Oh my, this bubble is just getting bigger and bigger with no end in sight. This flat just sold STC with an asking price of £375k. Even if the buyer got a 'discount' this still represents a massive increase from barely two years ago:

21/08/2013 £249,999 Flat 21, The Trees, 83 - 89, Amhurst Park, London, N16 5DP

WTF!!!!!!!! £125k (or bloody 50 percent) increase in 22 months.

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London Zone 6 / Essex:

3 bedroom nothing special reduced today from 400k to £385k: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-50066317.html

Similar last sold for £395k last summer: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=25473463&sale=51758813&country=england

It would be great for HPI indexes if it sells for £370k or less ... :wub::wub::wub:

Edited by Damik

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Where I live (SW18, zone 2) I've seen evidence of both suntory and Damik.

My 1 bed flat has experienced something not quite so extreme, but up 37% in 17 months.

A lot of seemingly similar flats are still on the market, so I think I have been lucky to find a buyer.

But 1 beds do seem to be doing better than 2 beds. People are able and prepared to pay close to 400 for a 1 bed, but many 2 beds have been on the market for many months, reduced price and still aren't selling at 500, some even going to 450. So 1 beds surely can't go higher, unless the 2 beds start selling.

Where I'm moving to (CR8, zone 6) most flats go fairly quickly though and there isn't much for sale.

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Where I live (SW18, zone 2) I've seen evidence of both suntory and Damik.

My 1 bed flat has experienced something not quite so extreme, but up 37% in 17 months.

A lot of seemingly similar flats are still on the market, so I think I have been lucky to find a buyer.

But 1 beds do seem to be doing better than 2 beds. People are able and prepared to pay close to 400 for a 1 bed, but many 2 beds have been on the market for many months, reduced price and still aren't selling at 500, some even going to 450. So 1 beds surely can't go higher, unless the 2 beds start selling.

Where I'm moving to (CR8, zone 6) most flats go fairly quickly though and there isn't much for sale.

I assume that getting a mortgage now for £600k+ property even with large equity is a problem because of the MMR ...

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Where I live (SW18, zone 2) I've seen evidence of both suntory and Damik.

My 1 bed flat has experienced something not quite so extreme, but up 37% in 17 months.

A lot of seemingly similar flats are still on the market, so I think I have been lucky to find a buyer.

But 1 beds do seem to be doing better than 2 beds. People are able and prepared to pay close to 400 for a 1 bed, but many 2 beds have been on the market for many months, reduced price and still aren't selling at 500, some even going to 450. So 1 beds surely can't go higher, unless the 2 beds start selling.

Where I'm moving to (CR8, zone 6) most flats go fairly quickly though and there isn't much for sale.

I'd hold off on the lecture about HPI until you've sold. This is the bubble peak. We've already established you're too good to be a renter.

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WTF!:

Muddlehead: SW18 is bubble peak: I was really lucky to get an offer on my flat. Some 1 beds are selling, many aren't. Very few 2 beds are selling, despite reductions. Surely therefore 1 bed prices aren't sustainable.

In CR8 prices are also crazy (I'm one of the crazy ones who is intending to move there, BECAUSE I WANT TO LIVE THERE)

Venger: You're wrong. This isn't bubble peak, this is bubble peak.

I do understand the difference between sale agreed and exchange.

You may have established I'm too good to rent, but I haven't! Please could you how you came to this conclusion? I told you I'm considering renting.

I really would like some advice about renting if you or anyone else would be kind enough to give it.

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Should read: "Please could you explain how you came to this conclusion?"

That's right Damik. I suppose what I find puzzling is:

1) Why is someone prepared to pay just over £100,000 more than I paid so soon after?

2) Why is someone prepared to pay almost £400,000 for my 1 bed, when 2 beds of a comparable quality are hanging around on the market and heading towards? (I realise they probably can't afford the 2 beds, but at the current trend of price drops, perhaps they will soon. And aren't they worried the 1 beds will follow suit after they've bought?) Why don't 1 beds start to look expensive now?

3) Strange incorrect assumptions: I'm lecturering, I think I was clever, not lucky. My moves have been all about speculation. I'm completely unaware that I may get gazundered.

I suppose I find it difficult to predict, so I don't think it's obvious whether owning or renting is better for another few years (I definitely welcome opinions on this though). But if the move goes ahead it's unlikely I'll be wiped out - the price would need to drop more than 85% to put me in negative equity. My income could cover me if the IR on my mortgage jumps from 3% to 15%.

I am worried about losing my job, but my savings could keep me going for a decade or so, and I don't think anyone at work hates me quite as much as you seem to Venger.

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Oh my, this bubble is just getting bigger and bigger with no end in sight. This flat just sold STC with an asking price of £375k. Even if the buyer got a 'discount' this still represents a massive increase from barely two years ago:

21/08/2013 £249,999 Flat 21, The Trees, 83 - 89, Amhurst Park, London, N16 5DP

WTF!!!!!!!! £125k (or bloody 50 percent) increase in 22 months.[/quote

Nice flat. South facing garden etc - ticks a lot of boxes I suppose. Busy road though. I could see 325 or so for that at least. Probably closed circa 350 though?

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Maybe, but if the dip is like last time then it's not much of a dip. I hope it's different this time =)

Could be a "bull trap", where we saw a slight decline and then....

bubble-lifecycle.gif

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Could be a "bull trap", where we saw a slight decline and then....

bubble-lifecycle.gif

That graph fails to account for mass fraud/corruption/theft by government to support the bankers pyramid scam.

Damik, you grpah showing the whole sorry mess going up then tailing off and flat lining in 2008 and now is an interesting point.

They used to say on here that prices only go up or down, never stay the same, then all round the county from 2008 to 2012 prices flat lined ( more or less ). This is a sign of a manipulated marked IMHO. This new higher level flat line is just more manipulation.

As KB says there will need to be a trigger and at that point there wont be much they can do to stop the collapse, the ponly problem is it will take us all down with it.

The whole thing is a mess and the HTB/FLS pre-election 20% rise in prices has just made it worse.

Cameron and Osborne ought to be investigated by the fraud squad for their direct intervention in a free market.

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Could be a "bull trap", where we saw a slight decline and then....

bubble-lifecycle.gif

From this point of view I would argue that 2007 was a bear trap (as IRs were reduced to zero afterwards) and 2014 is top of the bubble

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From this point of view I would argue that 2007 was a bear trap (as IRs were reduced to zero afterwards) and 2014 is top of the bubble

some bear trap, lasted 6 or 7 years.

Life expectancy for a bear in the wild is ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Thank you for this graph. You made my day!

Are we somewhere between normal and fear phase now?

Suspect so but won't know till after the fact

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Black bears can live upward of 30 years in the wild.

Thats about how long it'll be before houses go up in real terms.

We'll see a big war before that bear dies.

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Suspect so but won't know till after the fact

I remember everythone thinking in 2009 we'd gone past the bull trap and waiting for the collapse, all we got was low sales volumes and flat-lined prices set off the back of very few egyts paying over the odds for houses.

I currently see no reason for this not to happen again.

We need an 'event' really to force reality back onto the government and their banker friends.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I remember everythone thinking in 2009 we'd gone past the bull trap and waiting for the collapse, all we got was low sales volumes and flat-lined prices set off the back of very few egyts paying over the odds for houses.

I currently see no reason for this not to happen again.

We need an 'event' really to force reality back onto the government and their banker friends.

I believe its spelt eejit not egyt.

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From this point of view I would argue that 2007 was a bear trap (as IRs were reduced to zero afterwards) and 2014 is top of the bubble

I saw The Bear Trap as 2009/10 in London and SE but then it was 2013/14. So qui sais?

After the back to high in 2010 the market was stagnant and was just about to over the cliff by 2012 - which would have done in The Tories for 2015. So they turned to housing as their saviour. Didn't they do well?

The next Recession will not be internally created. It will be part of a new 2008 global econ shock.

Edited by Killer Bunny

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I saw The Bear Trap as 2009/10 in London and SE but then it was 2013/14. So qui sais?

After the back to high in 2010 the market was stagnant and was just about to over the cliff by 2012 - which would have done in The Tories for 2015. So they turned to housing as their saviour. Didn't they do well?

The next Recession will not be internally created. It will be part of a new 2008 global econ shock.

To that end you might want to check out this chart:

http://static.safehaven.com/authors/long/37342_c.png

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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