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Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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Land registry is out:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/11192271/House-prices-fall-across-England.html

Property prices in England fell 0.2pc from August to September as prospective homeowners struggle to access finance.

The biggest drop was seen in Yorkshire & Humberside, where monthly prices were down 2.2pc.

Further declines were seen in the West Midlands (-1.3pc), followed by a 0.8pc fall in the East Midlands and a 0.7pc drop in London, according to the Government's Land Registry.

The only regions to escape house price falls were the East, the South West and Wales.

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Land Reg data out today shows a MoM fall for Kensington & Chelsea - significant given the time lag involved in data being reported in the Land Reg

-0.3% down; the whole report for London is a bit funny; K & Ch is only part which is falling and only by 0.3%. But the whole London is falling 0.7% ... bizarre ...

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/367294/HPIReport20141021.pdf

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From the Edmund Conway link

It goes back to the recent MIPIM (Le marché international des professionnels de l’immobilier) thread and an organisation much favoured by Mr Johnson the London Mayor.

It's almost impossible for the average person in London and eventually for the rest of the UK people if London/UK house prices are set and kept high in this way.

Plus don't forget the overseas borrowing rates can be much lower than the same loans would be in the UK.

Read this to get an idea of the ease of borrowing....

http://www.uob.com.sg/personal/loans/property/uob_international_home_loan_london.html

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Plus don't forget the overseas borrowing rates can be much lower than the same loans would be in the UK.

Read this to get an idea of the ease of borrowing....

http://www.uob.com.sg/personal/loans/property/uob_international_home_loan_london.html

Cripes! :blink:

At least it's a maximum of 75% LTV I suppose.

Edited by Eddie_George

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Conway posted on this forum?

No, it was my memory of a post on the forum, of a chat between him and a HPCer, before or after some economics conference in 2006.

I thought it was 'Financial Planner' (why I said HPC Senior Member).. but it seems it was someone else, for a search doesn't pull up the post I had in mind. Others warned him in 2006 as well, it seems.

Yet I came to learn, thanks to softie hpc members, that renter-savers deserve what has occurred... hyperbubble 1.0 and hyperbubble 2.0... because the 'victims' outbidding us by first £50,000 then £100,000 then £200,000 and then quarter million pounds+ for a house.... "Only wanted a home / Media made it look easy / Parents told them it only goes up / Supply and demand at any crazy purchase price forever HPI / bankers forced them to take jumbo mortgage.'

I'd suffer Conway/Krusty... every other VI liar-loaner greedy entitled idiot outbidding my family by crazy amounts for a decade - claiming those waiting for better value are their enemies - above the unforgivable ridiculous excuses from some hpcers for those who paid the stupid high asking prices (many sat on hundreds of thousands in equity too, now, in hyperbubble 2.0).

Word on the street: Apocalypse now? Having read the signs, I don't think so

Edmund Conway

12:01AM BST 22 Jul 2006

"Really," he said. "You really think everything's going to be OK?" I answered that provided prices don't rise too much in the next couple of years, there is only a distant chance of the market collapsing.

"Don't be ridiculous," he said. "I've no doubt at all there's going to be a crash."

He continued that houses are more unaffordable than they've ever been; we are more indebted than we've ever been, and that interest rates and unemployment are about to rise.

"It is," he concluded, "all about to end in tears."

It wasn't the man's views that I found disturbing. It is quite reasonable to assume that the market could crash: prices are indeed still high and various scenarios could set off a serious slump. No, what was disturbing was the fervour and slightly unhinged aggression.

Not only was he convinced that the economics meant a crash was inevitable; he was also convinced that the past decade's boom had been engineered by homeowners for their own benefit and to the intentional detriment of potential first-time buyers.

It seems there is quite a cabal of people in his court. They congregate online at a website called housepricecrash.co.uk, where they exchange views on why it is better to rent than to buy, and place bets on how long it will take before prices slide back to mid-1990s levels.

...continues http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/3351495/Word-on-the-street-Apocalypse-now-Having-read-the-signs-I-dont-think-so.html

Locating the cause of the property crisis with Kirstie Allsopp

Kirstie Allsopp at her home in west London. ‘It is not selfish or irresponsible to want a roof over your head for your family’

12:01AM BST 19 Apr 2008

[..]She adds "so-called" every time you mention the word "crash" but she admits there will be victims of a slow-down. "Many will have been irresponsible, but there will be some desperately sad stories, often combined with family breakdown from people who were lent too much by the banks.''

The people she finds most irresponsible are those who are trying to whip up fear. "There is a website called Housepricecrash.com and I am their deadliest enemy. They all rent and have a vested interest and enjoyment in watching others suffer. That's sick. Schadenfreude is absolutely disgusting and a terrible trait. There has been overpricing in some areas but this is not America. We are not going into freefall unless we panic ourselves into it."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1896025/Locating-the-cause-of-the-property-crisis-with-Kirstie-Allsopp.html

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Lol, I've said before we need more hpc - house price compassion.

What do you mean exactly? Are you serious?

The VI owners want more HPI... the VI landlords want higher rents.

Markets are no place for compassion, and no one has given me House Price Cuddles, during hyperbubble 1.0 then hyperbubble 2.0.

Can I hit you up for all the rent I've paid out over the years, to be returned under your compassion?

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What do you mean exactly? Are you serious?

The VI owners want more HPI... the VI landlords want higher rents.

Markets are no place for compassion, and no one has given me House Price Cuddles, during hyperbubble 1.0 then hyperbubble 2.0.

Can I hit you up for all the rent I've paid out over the years, to be returned under your compassion?

You're right House Price Compassion is not appropriate. There is no room for compassion. I need to be more like Conan.

General: Conan! What is best in life?

Conan: Crush your enemies. See them driven before you. Hear the lamentations of their women. Mongol

General: That is good!

http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0008154/quotes

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You're right House Price Compassion is not appropriate. There is no room for compassion. I need to be more like Conan.

Sounds like it. Secretly intended to watch that movie. Growing up saw the first 10 minutes on three occassions with the girl (maybe his sister) not meeting the nicest of ends by James Earl Jones. Just streamed a little bit now, with Conan slaying, man after man, with my imagining them HPC apologist faction. Worse that all the VI combined.

That FT chart. If we do ever get HPC, after another doubling/trebling in values, due to individuals with freewill choosing to pay ever higher prices (again - not forced to by anyone else).. just as we were unable to convince the Chief Economists of this world in 2006 about dangers of hpc... against stupidly high prices... now another doubling.... always unable to convince buyers this time around ------- I'm not looking forward to a repeat of the softies on hpc with their excuses, but excuses there will be.

"They just wanted a home." "They couldn't have expected a crash. (when paying £1million+) Probably also this time around, "It wasn't earning anything in the bank."

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You're right House Price Compassion is not appropriate. There is no room for compassion. I need to be more like Conan.

I have plenty of compassion for those who have behaved responsibly and ethically and who themselves care about what happens to other people as well as themselves and who consider that what is best for society is more important than what serves their own vested interests, but I don't suppose that's what you're after?

For some reason when people talk about compassion in the context of housing they seem to imply that it only counts if it is extended to the small subsection of society who have made foolish, greedy financial decisions to the detriment and suffering of others around them, and who themselves never express any compassion whatsoever for anyone who hasn't done the same.

This attitude is the fundamental building block of moral hazard, it's exactly the sort of thing that is used to justify the ZIRP you were complaining about up thread, so while it might superficially appear to come from the ethical high ground its consequences are in fact very unethical.

Nor is it psychologically healthy to waste such emotion on those who would gladly see you suffer indefinitely in order to bail out their own recklessness. Save your house price compassion for the priced out renters, those who have bought have either done so in a responsible fashion and are in no need of your compassion or have acted irresponsibly and do not warrant it.

Edited by Neverwhere

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-0.3% down; the whole report for London is a bit funny; K & Ch is only part which is falling and only by 0.3%. But the whole London is falling 0.7% ... bizarre ...

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/367294/HPIReport20141021.pdf

Remember that the figures for London boroughs are rolling 4-month averages because there's insufficient data for a single month computation. That's why the borough numbers are often out of whack with the figure for London as a whole.

Incidentally, August's average price for London was revised down from £467,070 to £463,725. September's average is £460,521. Therefore in the absence of the August revision the fall in London would have been 1.4% instead of the headline 0.7%.

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As a priced out renter the only compassion ive been shown is to pay ever increasing rents from my hard earned money.

Sure lots of older people that ive talked to about house prices and rents that are sitting on massive HPI talk compassionately but no way in hell are they going to give up all that unearned wealth , so its fake compassion and means nothing to me.

My only chance is HPC, in fact ive really given up on it all and am drawing down on my savings having dropped to part time work, as im single with savings im eligible to sweet fa in benefits, at the point my savings reach the required level i will at least be eligible for housing benefit and live rent free.

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Remember that the figures for London boroughs are rolling 4-month averages because there's insufficient data for a single month computation. That's why the borough numbers are often out of whack with the figure for London as a whole.

Incidentally, August's average price for London was revised down from £467,070 to £463,725. September's average is £460,521. Therefore in the absence of the August revision the fall in London would have been 1.4% instead of the headline 0.7%.

Cheers

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What do you mean exactly? Are you serious?

The VI owners want more HPI... the VI landlords want higher rents.

Markets are no place for compassion, and no one has given me House Price Cuddles, during hyperbubble 1.0 then hyperbubble 2.0.

Can I hit you up for all the rent I've paid out over the years, to be returned under your compassion?

:P Hypertrouble 10 coming to the housing Ponzi soon IMO.

Edited by dances with sheeple

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As a priced out renter the only compassion ive been shown is to pay ever increasing rents from my hard earned money.

Sure lots of older people that ive talked to about house prices and rents that are sitting on massive HPI talk compassionately but no way in hell are they going to give up all that unearned wealth , so its fake compassion and means nothing to me.

My only chance is HPC, in fact ive really given up on it all and am drawing down on my savings having dropped to part time work, as im single with savings im eligible to sweet fa in benefits, at the point my savings reach the required level i will at least be eligible for housing benefit and live rent free.

Where are you in the country? My rent in Edinburgh has barely moved in 16 odd years.

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As a priced out renter the only compassion ive been shown is to pay ever increasing rents from my hard earned money.

Sure lots of older people that ive talked to about house prices and rents that are sitting on massive HPI talk compassionately but no way in hell are they going to give up all that unearned wealth , so its fake compassion and means nothing to me.

My only chance is HPC, in fact ive really given up on it all and am drawing down on my savings having dropped to part time work, as im single with savings im eligible to sweet fa in benefits, at the point my savings reach the required level i will at least be eligible for housing benefit and live rent free.

Well you have my real compassion, especially about zone 6! ;)

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Well you have my real compassion, especially about zone 6! ;)

Ha, thanks i need it. :D

The boomers at work ( for them its a nearly retired but want to keep busy job, certainly dont seem to need the money) got a bit flustered last week when i mentioned i want and think there needs to be a house price crash, the younger guys ( either living with parents or renting ) really got into the discussion too, very much seems a sense of the boomers really fear losing their unearned wealth and the young ones have nothing to lose

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Neverwhere :wub:

dws - hypertrouble :lol:

“What it does say is that all estate agents are in trouble. The London boom of the last five years has been responded to by new agents setting up shop and existing agents opening new branches in new areas” says the buying firm.

Property Vision says that with greater control of the housing market being passed to, and sought by, the Bank of England, it is unlikely that high demand will return in the near future.

“This wasn't too hard to predict - but still the new offices opened to chase turnover. Lemmings come to mind” concludes the blog.

Looks like malinvestment to me, but I wouldn't complain if it was to position for a sudden flood of sellers in all areas, into hpc. Costly in the meantime, I would have thought, as demand falls back with prices still so painfully high, and tighter money (on the UK lending side at least) only just beginning to take place.

Demand would likely fall into hpc, with mortgage lending getting even tighter (lenders don't like to lend on asset values which are falling), and would be borrowers more cautious anyway. Although demand would come back at the right price.. including from many HPCers ready to buy. Best for EAs and hpcers if the hpc was sharp and quick.

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Ha, thanks i need it. :D

The boomers at work ( for them its a nearly retired but want to keep busy job, certainly dont seem to need the money) got a bit flustered last week when i mentioned i want and think there needs to be a house price crash, the younger guys ( either living with parents or renting ) really got into the discussion too, very much seems a sense of the boomers really fear losing their unearned wealth and the young ones have nothing to lose

I have just stopped discussing this, at work or anywhere else, it is a no no topic for discussion, a real Third Rail subject. But yes, those expecting a windfall are going to be disappointed, probably why they are getting uptight about it.

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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