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Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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Fair points, logic makes sence long to medium term. If HP tank big time the economic shock would be massive in the short term. Huge. No question, consumers would retrench massively. Job losses etc. Massive opportunity if in job and have cash all I'm saying. Why worry? Well looks like decent chance happening in London!

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I'd be worried, which is why my desire for a crash is perhaps a bit more muted. What's the point of cheap housing if no job!?

Whats the point of a job if you cant afford housing ... and the state will stop you from starving and cover the cost of shelter.

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I work for a hair gel producer. We will be badly hit by the foxtons slow down. :)

perhaps you should think about diversification of your target market ??? Something what can be used in both bull/bear markets ???

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Whats the point of a job if you cant afford housing ... and the state will stop you from starving and cover the cost of shelter.

also every bull's idea is to make money in London and down size in the country

nobody including the bulls actually want and can afford to up size ...

Edited by Damik

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The easiest and best way to bring down prices is to drive down rents.....who could or would hold onto a property where the hassle and rent would not cover the cost or nuisance....either we go back to packing people in to poor slum like property or people holding empty property for long-term to ride the storm.

Rents are linked to wages....mortgages are linked copious amounts of cheap credit........which one is likely to give in first? ;)

Yes. This would be so easy to do. If you increased the rights of tenants (security of tenure etc), the average (home-owning) voter wouldn't really care. Unless they're a BTLer of course.

You would therefore make BTLing more of a hassle and reduce demand for it, which would lower house prices by the back door.

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http://www.imf.org/external/research/housing/

UK is in the top 5 on valuations for most expensive - shame they don't break down by cities. Japan is cheapest apparently.

Apparently in Japan - http://www.jricl.com/. - city real estate yields c. 6% in a country where the 10year bond yield is sub 0.5%.

Why are investors dicking around in London for c. 3-4% yieled in a country with long term bond yields c. 2.2%!?

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http://www.imf.org/external/research/housing/

UK is in the top 5 on valuations for most expensive - shame they don't break down by cities. Japan is cheapest apparently.

Apparently in Japan - http://www.jricl.com/. - city real estate yields c. 6% in a country where the 10year bond yield is sub 0.5%.

Why are investors dicking around in London for c. 3-4% yieled in a country with long term bond yields c. 2.2%!?

Isnt it a case that Japan doesnt flog their housing stock to any foreign criminal looking to hide some money.

Besides i doubt theyd be too happy selling out to the CHinese.

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The last house crash (89-96) saw the grow.

The recession (jobs wise) only lasted 18 months.

This slowdown/ general economic cr.pness has trundled on for 6+ years.

I prefer a house price crash and resetting of the economy to the never ending slowdown we have now.

+1

The level of recession and job losses are baked in by misallocation of resources during the boom, the longer we wait to have the bust the worse these will be. The bust gets the psychological blame but really it's the boom that is the bad times which causes the destabilization of the economy and the bust that calls the end of them! The danger of bustophobia is that it makes it superficially tempting to try and draw out the bust for a "soft landing:" thus blighting countless lives for several decades in the name of putting off a short, sharp shock that would be over and done with in a few short years and largely forgotten in a decade or so.

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Very Austrian. Friedrich hayek couldn't have said it better! Difficult to compare the GFC with 80s recession. Who knows! I just think its perverse that the GFC basically saved London property - if rates were still in the mid single digits prices would have corrected years ago.

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Very Austrian. Friedrich hayek couldn't have said it better! Difficult to compare the GFC with 80s recession. Who knows! I just think its perverse that the GFC basically saved London property - if rates were still in the mid single digits prices would have corrected years ago.

Bustophobia in action.

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Property Vision - Foxtons Results

Foxtons have released an unscheduled trading statement reporting sharply lower turnover as a result of slowdown in the London market. If this was a surprise, it shouldn't have been: every London agent has been talking about the collapse in turnover and the possibility of redundancies for a few months now.

Is this the canary in the coal mine for the London market? Should one draw connecting dots between turnover and prices?

There is obviously a connection. High turnover of property usually implies high confidence - which means that buyers are prepared to step up to the plate and respond to competition to buy the best things. Less buyers around generally leads to a weakening in prices but that doesn't necessarily mean a collapse.

What it does say is that all estate agents are in trouble. The London boom of the last five years has been responded to by new agents setting up shop and existing agents opening new branches in new areas. A cursory glance at the sheer number of estate agents on every street must give pause for thought as to how they are all going to make money. They are the best example of an operationally geared business.

Well now we know they aren't making money - and with all levers being pulled by the Bank of England to cool the market it isn't likely that the glory days are going to be back soon.

This wasn't too hard to predict - but still the new offices opened to chase turnover. Lemmings come to mind.

http://propertyvision.com/en/thoughts/blog/foxtons-results Edited by rantnrave

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It looks like it is not just Prime London popping. Some aggressive price reductions in Zone 6, close to M25. A good haircut justin in 30 days. If you have a large equity and you want to sell for strong reasons you will cut every 2 weeks 5% till it sells ...

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46312480.html/svr/2712

28/10/2014 Price changed: from '£850,000' to '£800,000'

08/10/2014 Price changed: from '£925,000' to '£850,000'

24/09/2014 Initial entry found.

Last time sold:

£655,000 Semi-Detached, Freehold 09 Feb 2012 4 bedrooms

£725,000 Semi-Detached, Freehold 28 Oct 2011 4 bedrooms

£690,000 Semi-Detached, Freehold 14 Jul 2011 5 bedrooms

£610,000 Semi-Detached, Freehold 17 Jun 2009 5 bedrooms

Edited by Damik

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Clapham performing well: 38% (13/34) of price reductions in last 24h

Some of the guys want to sell pretty fast:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47680040.html

27/10/2014 Price changed: from '£550,000' to '£499,950'

15/10/2014 Price changed: from '£575,000' to '£550,000'

01/10/2014 Price changed: from '£599,950' to '£575,000'

11/09/2014 Price changed: from '£625,000' to '£599,950'

19/08/2014 Initial entry found.

Edited by Damik

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Property Vision - Foxtons Results

[..]What it does say is that all estate agents are in trouble. The London boom of the last five years has been responded to by new agents setting up shop and existing agents opening new branches in new areas. A cursory glance at the sheer number of estate agents on every street must give pause for thought as to how they are all going to make money. They are the best example of an operationally geared business.

Well now we know they aren't making money - and with all levers being pulled by the Bank of England to cool the market it isn't likely that the glory days are going to be back soon.

This wasn't too hard to predict - but still the new offices opened to chase turnover. Lemmings come to mind.

http://propertyvision.com/en/thoughts/blog/foxtons-results

Read quite a few reports, even into last few months, of EAs opening new branches and was totally confused as to why. Although on a confusion scale, nothing will ever topple the repeated claims that those oubid me by £50,000 to £250,000 over the years were the actual victims (even when they're hoping for more hpi) vs those who rented and refused to pay silly prices, now enduring the QE and 0.5% and everything else.

Appears to me the Deputy Governor of BoE was taking a big step back the other day from expecting forever cuddle-protection policy for those who believe they've have special-protection status in the wider economy.

Thu Oct 23, 2014

[..]Broadbent's speech at an economics conference did not discuss Britain's immediate economic outlook, and instead focussed on central banks' powerlessness to do much to affect asset prices or long-term economic growth.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/uk-britain-boe-broadbent-idUKKCN0IC0QY20141023

Edited by Venger

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If you have a large equity and you want to sell for strong reasons you will cut every 2 weeks 5% till it sells ...

Not a bad policy if you're looking for quick sale.It'll be interesting to follow one or two of these sales till they find the market.

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Read quite a few reports, even into last few months, of EAs opening new branches and was totally confused as to why. Although on a confusion scale, nothing will ever topple the repeated claims that those oubid me by £50,000 to £250,000 over the years were the actual victims (even when they're hoping for more hpi) vs those who rented and refused to pay silly prices, now enduring the QE and 0.5% and everything else.

Appears to me the Deputy Governor of BoE was taking a big step back the other day from expecting forever cuddle-protection policy for those who believe they've have special-protection status in the wider economy.

I worked in Whiteladies road in Bristol for a short while earlier this year and a number of estate agents popped up there.

Between where I worked and the Gym (about 1 mile) there were no less than 14 estate/letting agents!

there's going to be a lots of unemployed sales people and empty shops in Bristol in the next 12 months.

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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