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Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads


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No, it isn't. It has been used as a political prop by the Powers, and that is why their in poo land this morning. I do hope "they" pay dearly.

People ar tired and disillusioned by the main establishment parties so they've decided to back (in great numbers) another party which is if you ask be uber-establishment albeit anti-Eu. Do you think the BBC would be giving Farage so much publicity if he was going to rock the establishment..

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Hello, long time lurker here. I live and grew up in London and, like all of you got fed up of the ridiculous house prices in London (and much of the UK), and found myself on here.  Anyway, enough

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How has your timing on property been? Have you ridden all the up waves and got out before all the down waves? if you had I think it unlikely you would be posting on here.

Have you always been on the best mortgage rate? or are you waiting to time your entry to the point hundreds of thousands of previous property buyers lose their shirts?

These should not be considerations when buying a home for your family.

Saying people should work it out for themselves is just wrong.

30 year fixed rates, adequate home building and moving taxation from income to wealth/land is what is required to bring stability to these assets.

Hello, the sort of average family home I'd like to buy, or my loved ones to buy including my sister and husband, in South Manchester, are on the market at £250,000 (quarter of a million pounds) to half million pounds, more than I think they are worth. Just two chosen at random from just 1 South Manchester area I keep an eye on.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30498054.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30560631.html

There's nothing for me to work out. Perhaps I've being too optimistic about value, but even so, we make our own decisions, and your buyers who've been meeting such asking prices, as they have been doing, made their own decisions.

Your plan so nice. No sudden correction for recent buyers, nor older owners and over-leveraged bomad or BTLers. Perhaps I can buy when I'm 80 under your plan, as supply trickles to market. Stability is what you want. I want crash.

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Perhaps I can buy when I'm 80 under your plan, as supply trickles to market. Stability is what you want. I want crash.

But that crash you wish for is just a point in time. There is no certainty that you won't spend all your savings and/or take on life-changing debt at that point - then there be another crash soon after.

And circumstances completely outside of your control mean that your family has no home and no savings - due to you not getting the timing right.

You may say "well I won't need a mortgage" after such a crash so have no risk - what if you spend all your cash and there is a 50% drop and you have to move to work or other issue forces the sale - and you crystallise the loss - let's say an oil crisis is the cause of this horror and you can't afford to buy another place as your cost of living has also gone sky high.

As you lose everything - someone else, who timed it better, got your house, your savings and everything you worked for.

You believe there is a some massive injustice that needs to be righted by everyone who bought with better timing than you (for instance in last couple of years) losing all their savings invested in to property.

I believe buying a home should not be a gamble down to timing in this way. It makes for a miserable life for most people and it is a decision that even the smartest brains can get completely wrong as it often defies common sense - who in the darkest days of 2009 would have predicted London prices to be where they are today.

Edited by slacker
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But that crash you wish for is just a point in time. There is no certainty that you won't spend all your savings and/or take on life-changing debt at that point - then there be another crash soon after.

And circumstances completely outside of your control mean that your family has no home and no savings - due to you not getting the timing right.

You may say "well I won't need a mortgage" - what if you spend all your cash and there is a 50% drop and you have to move to work or other issue forces the sale - and you crystallise the loss - let's say an oil crisis is the cause of this horror and you can't afford to buy another place as your cost of living has also gone sky high.

You believe there is a some massive injustice that needs to be righted by everyone who bought withe better timing that you (for instance in last couple of years) losing all their savings invested in to property.

I believe buying a home should not be a gamble down to timing in this way. It makes for a miserable life for most people and it is a decision that even the smartest brains can get completely wrong as it often defies common sense - who in the darkest days of 2009 would have predicted London prices to be where they are today.

Brain-ache... I'm approaching 40 years old, and have never owned. Your victims priced me out.

It has meant no home, and a lot of adjusting our circumstances.

I will require a mortgage, but at 50% off the current values, then I'd accept any new struggle to income with your "oil crisis". I'd be more than doubly-****** paying today's prices in such a geopolitical event wouldn't I. And I've already taken measures for I know family would pull together on the rest of the mortgage (post-hpc).

There is certainty I won't do that (mew and spend).

I want that point of time to come, as it should have come, if it hadn't been for people who hold your view 'protecting' the maxed-out, which really protects the values for the really asset rich / older owners who own outright..... stop values falling, and prevents them coming to market to cash in.

Better timing than me.... you're the one championing malinvestment without consequence, which has protected your victims (QE/0.5%/FLS) etc.

Yes, get them liquidated. 2 years ago, better timing. You're a serious troll from my point of view.

You believe anyone should buy at any high price, and not suffer any consequence. Pathetic.

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You believe anyone should buy at any high price, and not suffer any consequence. Pathetic.

I don't think you read any of my comments - you glance at them and add your interpretation.

I am not arguing to protect values.

You see yourself as a victim and see others as unfair winners that should be punished with a crash.

I am arguing that if this happens and you get your perfect house at a perfect price - you will then become an unfair winner and others who did not time so well will be victims.

I am arguing that this position is an asset value at a point in time - and you could still lose everything no matter how well you think you timed it.

I am arguing that a situation like this should not exist when it comes to buying a regular family home. Free markets and unregulated credit have failed in this context.

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I don't think you read any of my comments - you glance at them and add your interpretation.

I am not arguing to protect values.

You see yourself as a victim and see others as unfair winners that should be punished with a crash.

I am arguing that if this happens and you get your perfect house at a perfect price - you will then become an unfair winner and others who did not time so well will be victims.

I am arguing that this position is an asset value at a point in time - and you could still lose everything no matter how well you think you timed it.

I am arguing that a situation like this should not exist when it comes to buying a regular family home. Free markets and unregulated credit have failed in this context.

12 years renting, and regular moves, waiting for opportunity, as others paid higher prices, year after year after year, and then, got bailed out (QE/0.5%)?

Having to endure gobby nonsense about prices-double-every-few-years from your victims.

And now it's like new boom again... with your victims putting in offers of massive sums above asking price, I read on other forums, without even viewing! So eager to own. And BTLers and Bomads going hard in again, as it's only HPI for them, on the most flawed of reasons.

A hpc would make me an unfair winner?

Intervention in free markets has failed. I'm on the buyers strike side. It's a market. Different views, different positions, and to date, those who never over-extended, punished for not doing so, for a long time. Yet I'm not going to pay new peaks just to satisfy you - not now. Either crash, or more win for your victims. At least I played it straight all the way through.

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You see yourself as a victim and see others as unfair winners that should be punished with a crash.

I am arguing that if this happens and you get your perfect house at a perfect price - you will then become an unfair winner and others who did not time so well will be victims.

So on the one hand we have someone over-extending themselves on cheap credit in the expectation of government subsidies and bailouts to protect their position, and on the other we have someone undergoing personal hardship because they refuse to buy into the market unless they can afford to do so at a sensible and repayable debt level. Your argument seems to be that there is no moral difference between these two positions when in fact the moral difference couldn't be clearer.

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So on the one hand we have someone over-extending themselves on cheap credit in the expectation of government subsidies and bailouts to protect their position, and on the other we have someone undergoing personal hardship because they refuse to buy into the market unless they can afford to do so at a sensible and repayable debt level. Your argument seems to be that there is no moral difference between these two positions when in fact the moral difference couldn't be clearer.

I'm saying it's all relative and morally not a lot in it.

For instance:

- market crashes 40%, you enter market at 3X salary 70% LTV

- tough-luck to all the losers who should not have 'overextended'

- interest rates rise to 15% due to some currency issue

- you can't pay mortgage and lose your deposit (10 years savings)

- someone buys your repossessed house that you 'overextended' on

My point is that whether you win or lose with property is largely a matter of timing - and most people are unable to do that in any informed way.

If timing it was easy / obvious - why didn't you buy a London property in 2009?

Even if you do time it right that could just be a temporary position until some other event occurs and all of a sudden your timing has cost you everything.

My argument is that buying a house should not be roulette.

I'll shut up on it now - unless you post groupthink you get shot down as a troll round here.

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If timing it was easy / obvious - why didn't you buy a London property in 2009?

Even if you do time it right that could just be a tem-porary position until some other event occurs and all of a sudden your timing has cost you everything.

If I were interested in buying in London, despite unfair Chinese huge financial stimulus, I can see prices heading down again.

It's seems so easy for you, setting the world to rights, from the village where the bankers have their holiday homes.

Forgiving people who pay ever higher silly stupid prices, as a matter of timing. You're floating in the clouds mate.

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Has it collapsed yet ?

I wonder how the markets will react tomorrow to the election results.

More to the point...I wonder how the British government will react. I think it's time to throw the mortgage holders to the lions....those lion loans will get you in the end. :lol:

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I'm saying it's all relative and morally not a lot in it.

For instance:

- market crashes 40%, you enter market at 3X salary 70% LTV

- tough-luck to all the losers who should not have 'overextended'

- interest rates rise to 15% due to some currency issue

- you can't pay mortgage and lose your deposit (10 years savings)

- someone buys your repossessed house that you 'overextended' on

My point is that whether you win or lose with property is largely a matter of timing - and most people are unable to do that in any informed way.

If timing it was easy / obvious - why didn't you buy a London property in 2009?

Even if you do time it right that could just be a temporary position until some other event occurs and all of a sudden your timing has cost you everything.

My argument is that buying a house should not be roulette.

I'll shut up on it now - unless you post groupthink you get shot down as a troll round here.

You've clearly not been paying attention: if it were possible to buy an average house on three times wages at 70% LVT then there would be no problem, someone doing such is not over-extending themselves and should be able to cope with 40% price falls and/or 15% interest rates.

These are not the people buying into the market right now, the overextended won't be able to deal with a rate rise of 0.5% let alone 14.5%, just like the guy on Question Time this week telling off the politicians for even talking about people stuck renting when they should be worried about him and how he's going to get wiped out if interest rates don't stay at 0.5% forever and what are they going to do about it? It's not group think to point out how reckless, entitled and uncompassionate these people are.

Your argument is more than that buying house shouldn't be a game of roulette, that's a fair enough point, it's your choice to call responsible savers finally having a chance to buy their own home "unfair" while describing those who really have chosen to over-extended (not in your imaginary way but in the actual houses are more than 10x wages way, as in the current London market) as "victims" that I have a problem with.

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How has your timing on property been? Have you ridden all the up waves and got out before all the down waves? if you had I think it unlikely you would be posting on here.

Have you always been on the best mortgage rate? or are you waiting to time your entry to the point hundreds of thousands of previous property buyers lose their shirts?

These should not be considerations when buying a home for your family.

Saying people should work it out for themselves is just wrong.

30 year fixed rates, adequate home building and moving taxation from income to wealth/land is what is required to bring stability to these assets.

No, my timing has been quite poor. But I am not looking for sympathy, all the calls I've made I stand by, right or wrong. So should people who make different calls.

People should clearly work it out for themselves.

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No, my timing has been quite poor. But I am not looking for sympathy, all the calls I've made I stand by, right or wrong. So should people who make different calls.

People should clearly work it out for themselves.

BoE is required by law to manage the price stability. Clearly they are not able to manage the largest financial commitment of every family in this country ...

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Has it collapsed yet ?

I wonder how the markets will react tomorrow to the election results.

More to the point...I wonder how the British government will react. I think it's time to throw the mortgage holders to the lions....those lion loans will get you in the end. :lol:

Lion loans. :lol:

(Almost missed that one. )

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You've clearly not been paying attention: if it were possible to buy an average house on three times wages at 70% LVT then there would be no problem, someone doing such is not over-extending themselves and should be able to cope with 40% price falls and/or 15% interest rates.

These are not the people buying into the market right now, the overextended won't be able to deal with a rate rise of 0.5% let alone 14.5%, just like the guy on Question Time this week telling off the politicians for even talking about people stuck renting when they should be worried about him and how he's going to get wiped out if interest rates don't stay at 0.5% forever and what are they going to do about it? It's not group think to point out how reckless, entitled and uncompassionate these people are.

Your argument is more than that buying house shouldn't be a game of roulette, that's a fair enough point, it's your choice to call responsible savers finally having a chance to buy their own home "unfair" while describing those who really have chosen to over-extended (not in your imaginary way but in the actual houses are more than 10x wages way, as in the current London market) as "victims" that I have a problem with.

Exactly. Slacker talks as if buying at 40% off today's values or at conservative salary multiples is an identical risk to insane multiples etc. It isn't.

Paying less means less risk, both from interest rates and capital loss perspective. People have differing views but 3*salary with a 30% deposit would be acceptable to many people who are risk averse imo. For the right place, obviously.

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http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/london-housing-bubble-solution

London housing bubble solution?

The solutions are already coming through, albeit piecemeal
1. Lloyds have begun to restrict what they'll lend for people buying in London postcodes
2. The strength of Sterling is making property more expensive to foreign buyers (up 30% against the Rouble in the last year
3. A public blame game between Carney and Osborne - clearly they're both shitting themselves things are going to go pop and they're both trying to protect their own reputations - which is a great motivator to providing a proper solution IME
4. Duke of Westminster pulled a chunk of his investments out of prime London, calling the peak of the market, a couple of weeks ago and made sure everyone knew about it
5. Fear amongst buyers that interest rates will be going up soon, meaning they're thinking more about what they can afford
5. Looking at Rightmove for Bromley, quite a few sales appear to have fallen through in recent weeks - suggests maybe people are not being able to get the finance, or just refusing to stretch themselves.

tbh we need a drop and whole load of people to fall into negative equity and for the media to make a massive fuss of it just to remind people that house prices are not guaranteed to go up for ever and ever...

Sitting here as a first time buyer with deposit ready I'm really not sure if now's a good time to buy or not - too much craziness (irrational exuberance) and too many suggestions of an underlying weakness from too many people taking on unaffordable levels of debt (again!)

Edited by Damik
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Since 2008 I've used Bloomsbury as a market-feeler for Central London as a search on Rightmove. In hope that weakness in Central London may lead to weakness in regional markets. And Bloomsbury being an area associated with employees for all the courts around the corner. Lots of small studios and flats came on in 2008 which I suspected were former BTLs.

Same sort of crummy studios and flats come to market now and get snapped up, perhaps at 1/3rd higher price.

I've decided to go without PB or PT on this new computer (surplus corporate stock bought cheap) - slows me down and I can see from myself asking prices are at whack levels I'd never pay anywhere near, but much of the Bloomsbury listings of crummy flats and green-stickered Sold STC, all the way up to £700K and beyond. Someone is still buying at very high prices. If there is weakness in super-prime, I hope it feeds down.

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Someone is still buying at very high prices.

Well it's not people buying on behalf of RBS and Lloyds any more. A huge chunk of London is 'investors', so when selling time comes a hue chunk will come from these liquid investors cashing in.

I would imagine that a lot of what you are seeing is momentum and investors cashing in stock to buy property, much like just before the last crash.

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Emails this morning from 4 agents, all offering price reductions (Stroud Green/Crouch End/AllyPally), at least one I know to have been a fallen-through purchase. Still overpriced, but at least buyers have let the sellers swivel. First bit of good news I've seen in months...

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I am not really sure who is going to buy these houses in Prime London ... :lol::lol::lol:

http://www.primeresi.com/buyers-have-reached-the-limit-of-their-elasticity-mead/36886/

Buyers have reached the limit of their elasticity – Mead

http://www.primeresi.com/prime-central-london-pauses-for-breath-as-demand-softens-knight-frank/36911/

Prime central London pauses for breath as demand softens – Knight Frank

http://www.primeresi.com/marsh-parsons-calls-the-top-of-the-london-property-market/36891/

Marsh & Parsons calls the top of the London property market

http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/london-buyers-moving-out-201405299182.html

More London buyers moving out of the capital city, research suggests

http://www.marshandparsons.co.uk/news/press/item/1914-press-release-the-london-property-market-steers-into-calmer-waters

Press Release: The London property market steers into calmer waters

Edited by Damik
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