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Damik

Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

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While hardly "prime", things are finally noticeably dropping in my part of London (around Crystal Palace). Anything that isn't at the most desirable end of the local market appears to be down 10% or so over the past year. Decent family houses and victoriana flats on the best roads still seem to be fetching similar prices to this time last year, but stuff that might be a bit harder to shift is noticeably falling....... finally! 

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6 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

Interesting chart I saw posted by an EA on the twitters..

 

C37EF647-B4AF-4BD6-8411-848ED9C100A7.png

7F895B0E-BEA9-4133-8D4D-933D8DBB8CDC.jpeg

Wow, that's a huge decline

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http://The London Housing Market Is Worse Than It Looks. Here’s Why - Bloomberg https://apple.news/AQpnU7pjWTD-V5hfc7ThzjA

 

 

The below-cost sales don’t show up in any official government housing data, which simply registers the original price agreed when the market was in boom mode. This is significant because researcher Acadata changed its forecasting model earlier this year to better capture sales of new-build properties, which typically sell for higher prices than existing homes. That helped turn a decline of 2.5 percent in home prices in the 12 months through April into an increase of 2.9 percent for the same period

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On 25/11/2018 at 21:28, stuckmojo said:

Wow, that's a huge decline

why so shocked....only a blip that shouldn't have happened....reverse back 10 years....back to some kind of normality.;)

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On 14/11/2018 at 14:40, dances with sheeple said:

How big?

So big that the police are now changing their tactics on these bikers, as they realise they are involved in a lot of crime, with many thieves having chop shops of bikes with parts selling on social media 

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Street I monitor (used to live there) has a place that’s gone from 625 to 529 in 9 months - this is in SW. 625 was kite flying, if they’d priced it 575 at the start they’d have snagged someone. Now just chasing the market down.

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Time for the monthly update from Knight Frank. Here’s the November report:

http:// https://content.knightfrank.com/research/156/documents/en/prime-london-sales-index-november-2018-6030.pdf

Prime Central London: -4.0% 12 months, -1.7% 3 months, -0.5% 1 month

Prime Outer London: -4.8% 12 months, -1.6% 3 months, -0.7% 1 month

 

Prime Central London is defined in the index as covering: Aldgate & the City, Belgravia, Chelsea, Hyde Park, Islington, Kensington, Knightsbridge, Marylebone, Mayfair, Notting Hill, Riverside, South Kensington, St John’s Wood, Tower Bridge and Victoria.

Prime Outer London comprises Barnes, Battersea, Belsize Park, Canary Wharf, Chiswick, Clapham, Dulwich, Fulham, Hampstead,Queen’s Park, Richmond, Wandsworth, Wapping and Wimbledon.


 

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Overseas property investors already avoiding the UK even before extra Stamp Duty charge

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/overseas-property-investors-already-avoiding-the-uk-even-before-extra-stamp-duty-charge/

New research suggests Government attempts to introduce an extra property tax for overseas investors may have little impact as many have already turned away from the UK.

The Government is planning a 1% extra Stamp Duty charge for overseas-based property buyers, but data based on activity across Countrywide brands shows the proportion of international-based landlords fell from 14.4% in 2010 to 5.8% in the first 11 months of this year.

Every region has recorded a fall, but London has seen the biggest drop off with the proportion of homes let by an overseas based landlord falling 15.5% since 2010 to 10.5%.

The proportion of homes let by an overseas landlord in the capital has fallen 4.7% in the last two years alone, the data shows.

However, London still has the highest proportion of homes let by an international-based landlord than in any other region

Outside the capital, Yorkshire and Humber has the highest proportion of homes let by an overseas based landlord at 6.7%.

Western Europeans make up the biggest group of overseas based landlords (34%), followed by Asian (20%) and North American (13%).

However, the biggest increases in overseas landlords has been those from Asia and the Middle East, up 2.1% and 1.4% respectively since 2010.

Meanwhile, the data shows the average cost of a new let in Great Britain rose 1.1% year-on-year in November to stand at £968 per month.

Every region recorded a rise in average rents, but the east of England saw the strongest growth at 2.9%, followed by 2.5% in Scotland and 1.9% in Wales.

Greater London saw the slowest rental growth, with rents rising 0.1% year-on-year.

Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Countrywide brand Hamptons International, said: “The proportion of homes let by an overseas based landlord has more than halved since 2010.

“Sterling’s depreciation since 2016 undoubtedly makes it cheaper for international buyers to purchase property in Great Britain.

“However, the conversion of pounds back into local currency means additional costs which cut into an overseas landlords’ monthly income.  This combined with a harsher tax regime for overseas investors is dissuading some international investors from entering the rental market.

“Throughout this year rental growth has been sluggish, averaging 1.5% and only passing 2% on two occasions.

“Affordability is not just an issue for those looking to buy a home, but impacts tenants paying rent too. These affordability barriers will continue to keep a cap on rental growth in the future.”

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5 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Overseas property investors already avoiding the UK even before extra Stamp Duty charge

There is some interesting detail in FT on what is (for me) a perfect example of London property bubble:

FT: Financial pressures haunt Battersea power station regeneration plan

Can't quote FT, so to summarise:

Phase 1: 855 flats sold and occupied [unlikely!].  Losses contributed to bankrupting Carillion

Phase 2: Commercial bit.  Subsequent FT article confirms transfer between Malaysian funds has now been confirmed.  Expected returns reduced from 20 to 8%

Not included in the deal are 1600 flats, 90% of which are sold. Buyers can walk away on overrun

Phase 3: 70% of 500 flats sold. 30 buyers reclaimed deposits due to delays; flats resold

Article suggesting Malaysian Phase 2 transaction between funds is commercial only is here:

FT: Battersea power station deal finalised by Malaysian pension funds

 

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I’ve just arrived back home to London in the last few days. I was away with work during December but when I drove around today I’ve noticed a lot of sold signs up. And I also checked properties I was monitoring which sold a few months ago and was shocked at them achieving close to asking prices, prices I felt were kite flying. 

 

I don’t think a crash will happen in the timeframe of my buying duration as there is so much pent up frustration with buyers that they just need access to debt and will buy close to asking price regardless 

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17 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

I’ve just arrived back home to London in the last few days. I was away with work during December but when I drove around today I’ve noticed a lot of sold signs up. And I also checked properties I was monitoring which sold a few months ago and was shocked at them achieving close to asking prices, prices I felt were kite flying. 

 

I don’t think a crash will happen in the timeframe of my buying duration as there is so much pent up frustration with buyers that they just need access to debt and will buy close to asking price regardless 

Yes, one that I posted about last year eventually sold at an astonishing price. They were really kite flying. Bought in 2011 for 400k or so and after the obligatory through to back yard extention and full width doors were installed for I believe about 20k, went on at £999,995 reduced it over several months to £850k. Small box 2 bed originally with larger bedroom split to make it three bed. Only enough room to have double bed in larger bedrooms. Took em a while but a check on houseprices.io shows they got £845k I was disappointed to see this go at this price. 

Edited by Sawitcoming

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10 hours ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

Asking is 25% down in three months:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56249916.html

am seeing more of these 'offers in excess of'. Seems no-one's interested, but they don't want to give it away...

Next door property has four wheelie bins outside - an HMO with noisy neighbours perhaps? Still £600k still isn't cheap - presumably it was £800k before

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13 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Next door property has four wheelie bins outside - an HMO with noisy neighbours perhaps? Still £600k still isn't cheap - presumably it was £800k before

I should imagine a HMO next door or close by in the street would pull down the value of a house refurbished as a family home......once they were all family homes, now fewer people are having families, and those that do can't afford to live in the road only a few decades ago a single wage working household could afford to live in.....and they call it progress.;)

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13 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Next door property has four wheelie bins outside - an HMO with noisy neighbours perhaps? Still £600k still isn't cheap - presumably it was £800k before

Property divided into two flats is more likely.

600K is not cheap, granted. But 800k wasn't a crazy asking early last year.

psf 600k is quite cheap for the area. 

Edited by the_duke_of_hazzard

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On ‎04‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 19:49, winkie said:

I should imagine a HMO next door or close by in the street would pull down the value of a house refurbished as a family home......once they were all family homes, now fewer people are having families, and those that do can't afford to live in the road only a few decades ago a single wage working household could afford to live in.....and they call it progress.;)

Yep.

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51 minutes ago, Chrippie said:

First actual 50% reduction in asking price I've seen. Obvs £600k was utterly ridiculous for a broom cupboard even if it is near Harrods. Even £300k is way overpriced. But still. 50% off the asking price. 

https://www.home.co.uk/search/price_info.htm?property=4070032468

Love how the advert adds that opposite Harrods is a big bonus. The two are at diametrically opposite on the lifestyle spectrum  

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