Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

[suntory]

5 hours ago, Digsby said:

The precariousness of Lambeth in charts:

The green line is demand (properties sold) by supply (marketed on Rightmove) - with a 2 month lag (i.e. an assumption that sales take 2 months) . The last time it dipped below 5% was late 2008/2009. The orange line is monthly HPI (according to the new ONS/LR House Price Index).

It's clearly in a bubble given that so few properties are selling but prices are still rising.

To give some perspective, here are the individual supply and demand lines:

The gap between demand and supply is currently greater than at any point in the data series, when prices were crashing.

Brilliant analysis Digsby. Keep up the good work.

[janch]

20 hours ago, Digsby said:

The precariousness of Lambeth in charts:

The green line is demand (properties sold) by supply (marketed on Rightmove) - with a 2 month lag (i.e. an assumption that sales take 2 months) . The last time it dipped below 5% was late 2008/2009. The orange line is monthly HPI (according to the new ONS/LR House Price Index).

It's clearly in a bubble given that so few properties are selling but prices are still rising.

To give some perspective, here are the individual supply and demand lines:

The gap between demand and supply is currently greater than at any point in the data series, when prices were crashing.

That is brilliant ......a picture/chart paints a thousand words.......

[Pablo]

London is definitely buckling from my searches, including sub £600k finally !

This would have been £550k+ easily over the last 2 years in this area, probably with a starter at £580k going down to around the £565k mark before selling.

Now its £100k down, with some strange online auction bidding system and "priced to sell".

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63407183.html

[999house]

41 minutes ago, ItalianV6 said:

London is definitely buckling from my searches, including sub £600k finally !

This would have been £550k+ easily over the last 2 years in this area, probably with a starter at £580k going down to around the £565k mark before selling.

Now its £100k down, with some strange online auction bidding system and "priced to sell".

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63407183.html

Stuff going in Streatham is more expensive than that. Thats really cheap for Maida Vale. Wonder whats wrong with it?

[crashbaby]

17 minutes ago, 999house said:

Stuff going in Streatham is more expensive than that. Thats really cheap for Maida Vale. Wonder whats wrong with it?

"ATTRACTIVELY PRICED FOR QUICK SALE!!"

"This property is ONLY available for purchasers who are NOT in a chain."

"We market all properties at attractive 'Offers Over' prices to encourage a viewings and to achieve quick sale within 28 days"

Sounds like a motivated seller.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, ItalianV6 said:

London is definitely buckling from my searches, including sub £600k finally !

This would have been £550k+ easily over the last 2 years in this area, probably with a starter at £580k going down to around the £565k mark before selling.

Now its £100k down, with some strange online auction bidding system and "priced to sell".

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63407183.html

" ATTRACTIVELY PRICED FOR QUICK SALE!!  " in order to find some mug more like

[Pablo]

3 hours ago, 999house said:

Stuff going in Streatham is more expensive than that. Thats really cheap for Maida Vale. Wonder whats wrong with it?

Depends on what you can really cheap, I would have expected it around £530k for a quick sale.

I predict that many of these up and coming areas will rapidly drop back when any drops start to hit, as many of the buyers in these developing areas assume it is the cheapest without doing any research.

When the mass sheep realise, they will not be seeing any perceived 'value'

[kibuc]

I've registered my interest in a SO development early this year (January or so). Around May/June the initial prices got released and they were obviously bonkers.

About a month ago I got notified that it was about to be launched, however, due to stated 'massive demand' (900+ applications for 15 units) they'd only accept applicants meeting some restrictive criteria. I didn't care too much anyway, as I frowned upon the monthly rent that I calculated as the 3% (the initial maximum allowed) of the non-purchased equity per year.

Yesterday I got another email, inviting me to a 'limited opportunity viewing' for an 'off-plan purchase', so I guess their criteria got loosened quite a bit. What's even more important, rent levels got released in that email and they were set at just 1.3% of remaining equity, so it's roughly 600£/month less than what I expected and it even got me thinking for a while. However, the registration deadline for the viewing was yesterday, so I gave it a pass...

...and today I got another email, encouraging me to register for that viewing. I guess these apartments must be selling just swimmingly well.

Did I mention that the non-SO part of this development got reduced by around 100k in the last two months?

[suntory]

33 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I've registered my interest in a SO development early this year (January or so). Around May/June the initial prices got released and they were obviously bonkers.

About a month ago I got notified that it was about to be launched, however, due to stated 'massive demand' (900+ applications for 15 units) they'd only accept applicants meeting some restrictive criteria. I didn't care too much anyway, as I frowned upon the monthly rent that I calculated as the 3% (the initial maximum allowed) of the non-purchased equity per year.

Yesterday I got another email, inviting me to a 'limited opportunity viewing' for an 'off-plan purchase', so I guess their criteria got loosened quite a bit. What's even more important, rent levels got released in that email and they were set at just 1.3% of remaining equity, so it's roughly 600£/month less than what I expected and it even got me thinking for a while. However, the registration deadline for the viewing was yesterday, so I gave it a pass...

...and today I got another email, encouraging me to register for that viewing. I guess these apartments must be selling just swimmingly well.

Did I mention that the non-SO part of this development got reduced by around 100k in the last two months?

Wow. Can you tell us which one? It's not in N1C by any chance?

[Notdundespairing]

Every little helps!!

Airbnb announce plans to block hosts exceeding 90-day rental limit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-38169788

[ursa]

18 hours ago, crashbaby said:

"ATTRACTIVELY PRICED FOR QUICK SALE!!"

"This property is ONLY available for purchasers who are NOT in a chain."

"We market all properties at attractive 'Offers Over' prices to encourage a viewings and to achieve quick sale within 28 days"

Sounds like a motivated seller.

National Residential are basically like an ebay for selling property, so they set the initial 'asking' prices unrealistically low to generate interest. I was drawn in to a flat in SE4 asking £200k that ended going for £256k (and probably would have been more but they ended the auction early.)  

[kibuc]

1 hour ago, suntory said:

Wow. Can you tell us which one? It's not in N1C by any chance?

It's on Campsbourne Road in N8, it's called Pembroke Works.

There's a much larger development going on right across the street (non-SO, though) going live next Summer, so I'd image there's real pressure to sell rather sooner than later. So far, they didn't reduce prices on the SO part, but the rent levels are set in a way that allows them to make significant reductions in the purchase price and still stay under the 3% limit.

[Beborn]

On 28/11/2016 at 9:09 PM, Captain Tightwad said:

Of course it matters. There are lots of things other than housing that require large sums of money; retiring early, for example. Just because you can pay a grotesquely inflated price doesn't mean you should.

In my experience with SO, the initial 3% rent on the non-owned share is completely bonkers.

It usually is 1.5% to 2% so 1.3% is quite good tbh.

 

 

[Beborn]

Sorry, my previous post was intended to quote @kibuc

[Frick]

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-63446330.html

Quote

BARGAIN! We are selling this off plan re-sale BELOW contract price. ONLY offered to 100% cash buyer as the completion is shortly in Q1/2 2017.

[darwin]

32 minutes ago, Frick said:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-63446330.html

Yeeeah, good luck with that one 

[suntory]

They need a lot of good luck. In the same building this one is £300k cheaper AND it is bigger: Vista Cascade Building, Two bedroom. Chelsea Bridge Wharf, SW8
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37901310.html

???????????

[This time]

28 minutes ago, suntory said:

They need a lot of good luck. In the same building this one is £300k cheaper AND it is bigger: Vista Cascade Building, Two bedroom. Chelsea Bridge Wharf, SW8
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37901310.html

???????????

3.7k service charge! They'll be going for sub 400k in a few years.

[rollover]

50 minutes ago, suntory said:

They need a lot of good luck. In the same building this one is £300k cheaper AND it is bigger: Vista Cascade Building, Two bedroom. Chelsea Bridge Wharf, SW8
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37901310.html

???????????

It looks like he try to out-did everyone else.

Edited December 3, 2016 by rollover

[Beborn]

Those off-plan are reassignment of contract.

You must hand a huge amount of money (usually a 15% plus whatever the seller profit) without help of a mortgage. Those are the amounts already paid by the "investor" who originally bought off-plan 2 or 3 years ago.

So in the case of the "cheapest" one I bet you need at least £140,000 cash ready to hand over.

[steve99]

On 12/2/2016 at 5:15 AM, ItalianV6 said:

London is definitely buckling from my searches, including sub £600k finally !

This would have been £550k+ easily over the last 2 years in this area, probably with a starter at £580k going down to around the £565k mark before selling.

Now its £100k down, with some strange online auction bidding system and "priced to sell".

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63407183.html

Real price is circa £120K in line with wages and it is just a basic flat.

[Pop321]

1 hour ago, steve99 said:

Real price is circa £120K in line with wages and it is just a basic flat.

Disagree. London is one the world cities (NY, Sydney, Rome etc) and these will always drive a premium and there will always be an element of cash investors with real money around the world. 

I think could easily be £140k allowing for that ???

Edited December 4, 2016 by Phil321

[Beborn]

1 hour ago, steve99 said:

Real price is circa £120K in line with wages and it is just a basic flat.

That's a very simplistic and quite flawed argument I tend to read in this forum, to be honest.

If we were to measure any product we buy based on multiples of our wages, then we would end up saying an iPhone shouldn't cost more than £15 or a car more than £300.

Of course you could argue owning the house where one lives is not a luxury product and shouldn't be priced as such. The problem with this is, you really have other options... you can always rent or find cheaper housing in other areas.

[richc]

1 hour ago, Beborn said:

That's a very simplistic and quite flawed argument I tend to read in this forum, to be honest.

If we were to measure any product we buy based on multiples of our wages, then we would end up saying an iPhone shouldn't cost more than £15 or a car more than £300.

Of course you could argue owning the house where one lives is not a luxury product and shouldn't be priced as such. The problem with this is, you really have other options... you can always rent or find cheaper housing in other areas.

Actually, no, rents and house prices do, historically, operate as a function of wages.  Outside of a few holiday destinations, income from wages is the only source of money large enough to pay for the housing stock in any broad area.  Debt can play a role, but in the long term only so much money can be borrowed, and it has to be paid back.

[Sancho Panza]

On 01/12/2016 at 7:17 PM, crashbaby said:

"ATTRACTIVELY PRICED FOR QUICK SALE!!"

"This property is ONLY available for purchasers who are NOT in a chain."

"We market all properties at attractive 'Offers Over' prices to encourage a viewings and to achieve quick sale within 28 days"

Sounds like a motivated seller.

These forced sales will start setting new pricing points for these areas.