abhisSSL Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I stay positive. There is nothing what can save Prime London bubble. Plus the current government will not protect it at all. As they do not protect BTL anymore. Politically the Prime London is untouchable now ... I don't care about prime london, I don't live there and possibly never can. It is only for the emirs and sheiks and I doubt how many emirs and sheiks look at a hpc website. Real London lives outside prime london, and unless the crash percolates to outer zones, the crash wouldn't benefit me ( and thousands others ) in any way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 I don't care about prime london, I don't live there and possibly never can. It is only for the emirs and sheiks and I doubt how many emirs and sheiks look at a hpc website. Real London lives outside prime london, and unless the crash percolates to outer zones, the crash wouldn't benefit me ( and thousands others ) in any way. If Prime London crashes everything else crashes. Why would you live in Zone 3 if for the same money you can live in Zone 1 ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Haha, MSM has turned against Prime London; globally; the game is over http://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-next-for-londons-luxury-real-estate-market-1448465783 After four years of stellar growth, the real-estate bubble in prime central London hasn’t exactly popped. But the market seems to be going pfffftttttttt. And the outlook for 2016 isn’t promising. By the end of the year, prices in prime London are expected to have fallen 2%, according to research from Savills estate agents. Hardest hit are homes priced above £5 million, or just over $7.6 million. Here, demand fell by almost 60% in the third quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter, according to LonRes, a property-market analyst. A 60% drop in demand in that section of the market and they're going with a forecast of -2% for 2016? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 (edited) A 60% drop in demand in that section of the market and they're going with a forecast of -2% for 2016? Indeed. Cemeteries are full of optimists ... Edited November 25, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhisSSL Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 If Prime London crashes everything else crashes. Why would you live in Zone 3 if for the same money you can live in Zone 1 ??? Earlier I too used to believe in that theory,and I seriously want to believe in that theory as a prospective buyer, but the prices in prime London are so disjoint from the prices in outer London that a one-to-one correlation with respect to the crash percentage need not apply. The real deal is the interest rate and they just do not want to budge with them (always invent 10 excuses to keep them down), and till the point cheap money(debt) is trailing scant supply, I wonder how we can get double digit percentage falls in outer london. Of course,I would be the happiest if proved wrong on this and really hope that I am proved wrong. Otherwise I just don't stand a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Earlier I too used to believe in that theory,and I seriously want to believe in that theory as a prospective buyer, but the prices in prime London are so disjoint from the prices in outer London that a one-to-one correlation with respect to the crash percentage need not apply. The real deal is the interest rate and they just do not want to budge with them (always invent 10 excuses to keep them down), and till the point cheap money(debt) is trailing scant supply, I wonder how we can get double digit percentage falls in outer london. Of course,I would be the happiest if proved wrong on this and really hope that I am proved wrong. Otherwise I just don't stand a chance. Rule changes to BTL alone will see price drops all over London. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 Earlier I too used to believe in that theory,and I seriously want to believe in that theory as a prospective buyer, but the prices in prime London are so disjoint from the prices in outer London that a one-to-one correlation with respect to the crash percentage need not apply. The real deal is the interest rate and they just do not want to budge with them (always invent 10 excuses to keep them down), and till the point cheap money(debt) is trailing scant supply, I wonder how we can get double digit percentage falls in outer london. Of course,I would be the happiest if proved wrong on this and really hope that I am proved wrong. Otherwise I just don't stand a chance. I still stay optimistic. If Kensington & Chelsea falls e.g. 40% it will take places like Hackney down as well: http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/hpi/view?compare=1&from_m=10&from_y=2000&loc_0=Kensington+and+Chelsea&loc_1=Hackney&loc_uri_0=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fkensington-and-chelsea&loc_uri_1=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fhackney&m_hpi=1&source=preview_form&to_m=10&to_y=2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 Investors leaving London: http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/254266/5/Industry_in_depth/Autumn_Statement:_London_H2B_to_launch.htm Most damning of the new scheme was Stuart Law, chief executive of property investment company Assetz for Investors, who told investors to get out of the capital while they can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhisSSL Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I still stay optimistic. If Kensington & Chelsea falls e.g. 40% it will take places like Hackney down as well: http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/hpi/view?compare=1&from_m=10&from_y=2000&loc_0=Kensington+and+Chelsea&loc_1=Hackney&loc_uri_0=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fkensington-and-chelsea&loc_uri_1=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fhackney&m_hpi=1&source=preview_form&to_m=10&to_y=2015 Kudos to that, hope is all we can. They have trapped us from all sides 1. First increase the prices through artificial means using all possible instruments at their disposal 2. Next, offer a 5 year interest free loan up to 40% off the price which is already 40% inflated (on new builds), so in effect you gain nothing and have a mountain of debt to repay after 5 years elapse 3. Keep interest rates so low that a natural and healthy correction cannot even creep in . If you don't fall into any of these traps, then your only choice is to rent and pay your hard-earned money to a greedy and much older landlord who bought the same property at half the current valuation. And then call it a "recovery". What a tragedy ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_growlers_* Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Investors leaving London: http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/254266/5/Industry_in_depth/Autumn_Statement:_London_H2B_to_launch.htm Most damning of the new scheme was Stuart Law, chief executive of property investment company Assetz for Investors, who told investors to get out of the capital while they can. Brutal analysis. More prominent investors should stand up and say what they are thinking. Madness! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Earlier I too used to believe in that theory,and I seriously want to believe in that theory as a prospective buyer, but the prices in prime London are so disjoint from the prices in outer London that a one-to-one correlation with respect to the crash percentage need not apply. The real deal is the interest rate and they just do not want to budge with them (always invent 10 excuses to keep them down), and till the point cheap money(debt) is trailing scant supply, I wonder how we can get double digit percentage falls in outer london. Of course,I would be the happiest if proved wrong on this and really hope that I am proved wrong. Otherwise I just don't stand a chance. I do agree to an extent, but drops in PCL make the front pages of the mail and express... And that can subtly affect sentiment of those who want or need to sell. Anything that makes people accept that prices can come down will work in our favour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-house-price-growth-slows-november-nationwide-071522074--sector.html#aXWzVhD British house price growth cooled last year after the introduction of stricter rules for mortgage lending and the number of mortgage approvals is below levels seen before the financial crisis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 http://www.selectproperty.com/2015/11/london-property-unlikely-to-see-growth-until-end-of-2016/ With some prime locations in the capital offering yields under 3%, investors are looking to other regions where returns are twice as highThe annual rate of increase in the capital is the lowest since November 2009. “I predict that price increases in the prime central London market in 2016 will be modest with some areas experiencing growth and others seeing prices remaining fairly static." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Nothing to do with global econ slowdown. Of course not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewig Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Too funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Agent defends warning about next housing market crash The agent who this week warned that the London market could be on the verge of collapse, with the rest of the UK set to follow, is standing by his words. Robert Nichols, managing director of Portico, was speaking as this morning Nationwide said the pace of house price growth has slowed, growing 0.1% across the UK in the last month. According to Nationwide, the average house price is now £196,807. The Land Registry is reporting that across England and Wales, house prices are up by 5.6% in the last year and by 0.4%, saying that the average house price in October stood at £186,350. Nichols said: “As agents, we turn over data every day and we can see what the figures are telling us. “We are certainly not afraid to speak out. It is pointless to talk the market up when the data says otherwise. “Across central London – Westminster – sales volumes have halved between May 2014 and now. “When volumes reduce, house prices follow, and historically, we are close to the tipping point. “We also know that historically, central London is the marker for the rest of the UK.” Nichols said that affordability is the big issue: “Homes are quite simply too expensive. “In Westminster prices have already plateaued and realistically the only way is down.” Nichols said that the Autumn Statement, adding 3% Stamp Duty Land Tax to purchases of buy-to-let properties and second homes, could mean even lower supply of homes on the market, accelerating house price drops. He said that in the crash that started in 2007, London house prices took 19 months to get to the bottom, and then a further three months before they started to rise again. The central London market took a total of five years for prices to get back to where they had been; in the rest of the UK, the recovery time averaged eight years. Nichols said he does not believe that the extra Stamp Duty burden will affect current landlords and their current portfolios. However, he does think that they will be discouraged from expanding their portfolios, and that new entrants to the market will be similarly deterred. Of the impending tax changes on buy-to-let mortgages, Nichols said: “Landlords will just have to deal with it – they have no choice, because most of them are in the sector for the long term.” http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/agent-defends-warning-about-next-housing-market-crash/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 “Across central London – Westminster – sales volumes have halved between May 2014 and now. http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/agent-defends-warning-about-next-housing-market-crash/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 High risk can offer high reward.....then again there are lots of different types of risks.......some risks a growing number of people are not prepared to take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 (edited) Recent REIM TV video - South African based investor outlet. Summary - Invest in UK. London, is no so good for yields however. Perhaps a lot of South African money is dumping it's commodity mines for bricks and mortar in the UK? Also mentioned about Euro troubles, and Dollar collapse, the UK would be the world safe haven. Edited November 27, 2015 by 200p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 sky news website saying London house prices now 500k average. what's the average wage, 50k? this is insanity. it's beyond insane given what's happened. I still can't believe this has happened, can you? in 2007 the prices were insane but this in just criminal now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Tightwad Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 @Count - according to wiki only the City of London proper has a median income over 50k (£58,300). Kensington & Chelsea is next at "only" £37,800. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Crikey - 710 pages. sky news website saying London house prices now 500k average.what's the average wage, 50k?this is insanity.it's beyond insane given what's happened.I still can't believe this has happened, can you?in 2007 the prices were insane but this in just criminal now. Prices are so bonkers it is beyond comprehension. A copy of the Metro newspaper ends up in my canteen. They advertise apartments blocks in London with starting prices of £500k. Could London boroughs, themselves facing many housing crises, enforce planning of residential developments on conditions that new homes are sold ONLY to owner occupiers? They need to start acting for their citizens. I guess developers won't build them as it brings down the ceiling on potential asking prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Today's Land Reg release shows that 41 Radnor Walk SW3 4BP has finally sold, almost a year to the day after I highlighted it in post #2280. The vendors were originally seeking £4.25m, a 17% uplift on the August 2013 price of £3.625m. In the end however they settled for £3.65m - a nominal gain of just £25,000 before taking SDLT and other transaction costs into account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Nice work there FreeTrader. The latest LR report still makes for depressing reading. year on year growth in London back in the double digits. HPI for ever in most boroughs with the exception of Westminster and H&F. Even K&C is starting to grow again. Mother******er. The only redeeming factor is that sales volume in London looks like at a three year low. But who the ****** knows when this ******ing ******** will end. It's depressing really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhisSSL Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 I am seriously considering taking up an IT contract out of London. The earnings in this city are only a mirage, there is no point of earning a lot more than other parts of the country if you cannot even buy a house without going under a mountain of debt. The madness has gone on way, way beyond all limits of tolerance. I can't believe it has been 2 years with 2007 +30% and yet steadily increasing, with not even a hint of correction. Why doesn't the BoE take notice of this ? Is this sustainable and is it a sign of a healthy economy that the young in this country have to go under so much of debt just to put a roof of their own above their heads and without resorting to a "help" to buy ? The only option is to quit London en-masse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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