winkie Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The sellers have moved here and it's priced all the locals out the market. I dont think the idiots moving out of london realise what will be coming their way in 2-5 years when they decide to move..... ....they are paying local prices, starting local businesses and investing into the local economy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bomberbrown Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12 Sep 2014 Flat, Leasehold £875,000 Land Registry 28 Jul 2003 Flat, Leasehold £338,000 Land Registry 19 Mar 2001 Flat, Leasehold £124,500 !!!!! What are these people thinking !!!!!!! What do they think is going to happening, increase 6 times in 13 years...so despite them still being on £35K a year salary will own a house worth £5.2M F**king imbeciles. I've lived in London for nigh on 16 years and seen some ridiculous prices round here but that even made my jaw drop! I simply cannot see that price increasing over the next decade, probably even in nominal prices. That said, who knows what crazy schemes or policy's they might introduce to prevent a price correction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=se24 How'd you liike them apples? Whoah!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 SW8 at a rough transaction rate of 50 a month had an eye watering 30 months of inventory to clear.SW16 seems sedate by comparison with 10 months. SE1 =16 My gosh, those are some incredible numbers for SW8. According to the latest LR stats, looking at the last 12 months I reckon we have about 350 London properties selling for above £1.5 Million: Nov 2013 1069 Million at 393 transactions Dec 2013 1009 Million at 340 transaction Jan 2014 1052 Million at 393 transactions Feb 2014 995 Million at 344 transactions Mar 2014 915 Million at 346 transactions April 2014 1127 Million at 402 transactions May 2014 1209 Million at 424 transactions June 2014 1248 Million at 457 transactions July 2014 1677 Million at 561 transactions Aug 2014 1233 Million at 450 transactions Sep 2014 1094 Million at 383 transactions Oct 2014 1117 Million at 339 transactions On Zoopla there are currently 5,041 properties for above £1.5 Million for sale. That means that we are looking at a 14 months supply. Interesting to see how that figure will increase in the next few months. But I gotta say that 30 month supply in SW8 is staggering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 ....they are paying local prices, starting local businesses and investing into the local economy... And commuting to lonDon more like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 ....they are paying local prices, starting local businesses and investing into the local economy... And commuting to lonDon more like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 (edited) I do love a good anecdote, there's a thread for that you know. I know someone also who's just pulled out their flat purcahse because of the price and is instead buying a 6 bed house outside londojn, with a swimming pool and commuting to work. The London mega bubble is already gone. You pays your money you take your choices as to which anecdote to believe, thought mine is actually true. Yes, I am aware of the anecdotes thread thank you but I thought I was contributing constructively to this thread. I'll just put your rude response down to hearing something you didn't want to hear and it rubbing you up the wrong way. The anecdote I left was absolutely true. The poor sole I know looking for a house for his young family is incredibly depressed about the situation and I feel his pain. I'm a fully paid up member of the HPC brigade and London is IMO in a mega bubble as has been mentioned many times on this thread. But I've seem enough in the last 10 years to know that I and no-one on here is capable of predicting when the crash might come. I was on here in 2008 when prices were tumbling and we were all thinking, finally, after all the waiting and all the false starts that this was it, we were finally going to be able to buy a place to live in without enslaving ourselves to debt for the rest of our lives. No-one on here, myself included, understood the lengths that government would go to in order to prop up the market and as a consequence the malinvestment wasn't able to work it's way out of the system and the rest is history. I stand in amazement at how far property prices in London have gone in the last 4 years. I'm flabbergasted at how it's been possible. I can't believe it hasn't come crumbling down already. But that doesn't mean property in London is about to crash in 'July', I don't know if it will crash this year or next or the year after that even. It WILL crash as night follows day but when the banking system is built and thrives on the back of private debt I don't doubt that government and banks won't let the crash happen without putting up an almightily fight that will, inevitable, make a compete f*ck up of things. Edited February 4, 2015 by MinceBalls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 .. I don't know if it will crash this year or next or the year after that even. It WILL crash as night follows day but when the banking system is built and thrives on the back of private debt I don't doubt that government and banks won't let the crash happen without putting up an almightily fight that will, inevitable, make a compete f*ck up of things. Have we not just endured that stage? And why would the banks be so desperate to prevent HPC... ? They've just spent years offloading bad assets, streamlining operations, and getting to the stage with BoE stress tests says most can handle some 35% HPC, massive recession, stock market plunge and so on and so on, without need for any bailout. As for timing.. all I can do is wait; a HPC Monster ready and positioned to tear shreds out of shocked complacent bubble-drunk owners, and eventually feed, just like my brothers and sister (HPC Monsters)... and all the other HPC Monsters so positioned and waiting and refusing to be pulled in.. The problem with this line is that 66% of houses in the UK have no debt against them - and at a guess these are probably the large houses owned by the elderly. The hutches bought by the current generation of FTBs are indebted to the hilt. But this is not good for the banks. If most of the big homes are mortgage free then they have less money coming in. With MMR and houses just being too expensive the banks have a real problem. Not enough "customers" to make money from. As others on this forum have been saying, a HPC would actually benefit the banks as it would mean a fresh wave of lending (perhaps at lower amounts but in much higher volumes). Better to get £100k mortgages on 100 homes than to get £500k mortgages on 10 homes no? This vision of money everywhere can see them all disappear in an instant, into a HPC, imo. Don't be here telling me your mate was a victim into HPC, as other HPCers are always doing.. "The banks made them borrow ~ nothing to do with their HPI-spreadsheet-projections and assessing value for themselves etc." Hello campers. Just a bit of anecdotal and not prime per se (although this thread appears to have diverted somewhat - ie an obsession with Streatham). A colleague of mine went to a house viewing in Walthamstow at the weekend - 3 bed terrace for circa 500K - and when he arrived there were 28 other people waiting to view the property....It's these apartments that to me look like a crash waiting to happen and make a 500K 3-bed house in Walthamstow look like a bargain to most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bomberbrown Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Whoah!!!!!!!!! Like the Duke of Hazard, I also live in SE24. Sadly, that spike is due to a new development of Peabody Shared Ownership slave boxes just about to be completed on Milkwood Road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 (edited) I have just starting collecting a few more statistics that I think help interpret the market. The figures below are for SW16, since yesterday morning. We've observed a lot of asking price reductions over the last few months.I wondered what the overall relationship between initial and current asking prices is, i.e. how much of an effect might these reductions have made to the average asking price: Average Listing Price: £520,088.21 Average Initial Price: £525,775.48 Average Listing/Initial Price: 98.9183% There have been 10 "sales" in the past 24 hours. I thought it would be useful to know the same statistic on those, as well as the average number of days since the listing first appeared: Average Sale Price: £526,495.00 Average Sale Time (days): 87 Average Sale/Initial Price: 100% This average sale price bucks the trend slightly in that on most days, the average sale price is significantly below the average listing price, but just just 1 prime sale among those 10 would be enough to drag the mean up. The figures do need to be taken with a pinch of salt at the moment since both the initial asking price and the time on the market are limited by when I started collecting data, since both originate from when I first observed the listings rather than when the listings were actually added to the site, so until the vast majority of listings have been added since I started collecting data, they will be slightly unreliable and biased downwards (i.e if a sold listing existed for 3 months before I started, and has taken 3 months to sell, then the time on the market will show as 3 months not 6 - and likewise with initial price, I only know what the price was 3 months ago, not 6 months ago). But still I thought it was worth posting them as a taster. Edit to add: and of course, I can't tell what the *actual* sale price is as that is not available for several months in the LR data and it wouldn't be practical to try to correlate it automatically, so the "sale" price is the price at the time the listing went SSTC, rather than what the buyer actually paid for it. Edited February 5, 2015 by Digsby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Like the Duke of Hazard, I also live in SE24. Sadly, that spike is due to a new development of Peabody Shared Ownership slave boxes just about to be completed on Milkwood Road. They would be flats though right? In any case, supply is supply. Didn't realise there were that many of them though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 They would be flats though right? In any case, supply is supply. Didn't realise there were that many of them though You're right, supply is supply, but the interest in inventory levels for me is the question of whether buyer or seller activity is increasing or decreasing, and 75 odd new builds flooding on to the market doesn't shed any light on that. I also think we need to be a bit careful at the moment as we don't yet know how much of an effect onthemarket.com is having on market share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 And commuting to lonDon more like. ....and why after leaving would you want to do that?....pass through from time to time, but it is clear to see that things are no longer adding up, become quite opaque...if the people are finding difficulty in supporting it, something untoward must be desperately trying to continue to prop it up...many layers to an onion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elad Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Own Front DoorGood selling point. I hate buying a house where you have to gain access to your house through someone elses front door No wonder the people locals in the SE and now the shires are being priced out the housing market when people can make £700K, of tax free unearned money in 13 years then move out of london and buy a massive house at silly prices, houses that are worth half ( to the locals, who will ultimately be their buyers ) that. The government and the boe should be strung up for what they have done. They are destroying peoples lives. It is in that area. It is the stop gap between a flat and a house, flats you have someone else's door, the maisonettes you have your own, but it is still a flat. Don't have to worry about communal areas, the leaseholds are easier and it feels more 'yours'. Also they are purpose built like that so better than conversions I've just sold our flat and renting in a 'own-door' maisonette, and it does make a difference. Still 895 is MENTAL for those, they are going for 660 in Streatham Hill (still barmy) - would not buy one myself but there seems to be a number of people willing to do it. Still 895 for those is barmy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 (edited) Average Listing Price: £520,088.21Average Initial Price: £525,775.48Average Sale Price: £526,495.00... the average sale price is significantly below the average listing price I am lost in your numbers. Please explain as I do not see it. Edited February 5, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 (edited) I am lost in your numbers. Please explain as I do not see it. Average Listing Price = The mean of the current price for all current listings. Average Initial Price = The mean of the initial price for all current listings. Average Sale Price = The mean of the current price for all "sold" listings since the last observation (not SSTC listings, but removed listings that were previously SSTC). If we take the numbers from yesterday for example (I didn't have average initial price yesterday): Average Listing Price: £525,636.40 Average Sale Price: £392,475.00 It has been the trend on all previous observations (bar one from memory), that the average sold price has been way below the average listing price (I should note that there were 2 sales yesterday, 10 today), which is why I think, that for this area at least, all the buyer activity has been at the bottom end of the market. Todays observation bucks that trend because the average sale price is above the average listing price. Edited February 5, 2015 by Digsby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Average Listing Price: £525,636.40 Average Sale Price: £392,475.00 It has been the trend on all previous observations (bar one from memory), that the average sold price has been way below the average listing price, which is why I think, that for this area at least, all the buyer activity has been at the bottom end of the market. Todays observation bucks that trend because the average sale price is above the average listing price. I see now. Thanks. I like the ratio of 392/525. I suggest to run your everages for last 7 days. it shoud give you more filetred trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digsby Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I see now. Thanks. I like the ratio of 392/525. The reason I've now started to collect the "Average Sale/Initial Price" is because I want determine whether this ratio exists because the majority of properties selling are below average in terms of size/place and so on (like many flats and few houses, or many 1 bedroomed and few 3 bedroomed, etc), or because the majority of properties selling are heavily discounted. The 12 sales I've observed so far in SW16 have all been at 100% of initial asking price, so far it is indicating the former, but only time will tell for sure. I can't get that statistic retrospectively because when a property is sold, it's removed from my database and only the statistics are saved, so last weeks sales don't exist either on the website or in my database, thus I don't know what their initial asking price is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The reason I've now started to collect the "Average Sale/Initial Price" is because I want determine whether this ratio exists because the majority of properties selling are below average in terms of size/place and so on (like many flats and few houses, or many 1 bedroomed and few 3 bedroomed, etc), or because the majority of properties selling are heavily discounted. The 12 sales I've observed so far in SW16 have all been at 100% of initial asking price, so far it is indicating the former, but only time will tell for sure. I can't get that statistic retrospectively because when a property is sold, it's removed from my database and only the statistics are saved, so last weeks sales don't exist either on the website or in my database, thus I don't know what their initial asking price is. Be interesting to see the longer term picture on those stats.Intersting stuff.Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I see now. Thanks. I like the ratio of 392/525. I suggest to run your everages for last 7 days. it shoud give you more filetred trend. I keep asking for an answer to this question: rightmove asking prices for northants are 20-30% aove 2007 levels. The land registry says actual sale prices are 8% below 2007 prices. The only explanation I can find is that people are paying 20-30% below asking prices. Please explain ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exiled Canadian Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The reason I've now started to collect the "Average Sale/Initial Price" is because I want determine whether this ratio exists because the majority of properties selling are below average in terms of size/place and so on (like many flats and few houses, or many 1 bedroomed and few 3 bedroomed, etc), or because the majority of properties selling are heavily discounted. The 12 sales I've observed so far in SW16 have all been at 100% of initial asking price, so far it is indicating the former, but only time will tell for sure. I can't get that statistic retrospectively because when a property is sold, it's removed from my database and only the statistics are saved, so last weeks sales don't exist either on the website or in my database, thus I don't know what their initial asking price is. My observations of my local market confirm your findings to date. The two to three bed houses are moving (£200k - 300k) - people are just about managing to get the price together with BoMaD HTB etc. These would be the "average" houses in our area. The "Premium" places (£450k+) are very slow to move. MMR seems to be biting; very few local buyers will able to fund such a large price, and these places are too big to interest the downsizing retirees from the SE that make up the other pool of buyers up here at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 and getting to the stage with BoE stress tests says most can handle some 35% HPC, massive recession, stock market plunge and so on and so on, without need for any bailout. And you believe that to be true just because they say it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 (edited) rightmove asking prices for northants are 20-30% aove 2007 levels. The land registry says actual sale prices are 8% below 2007 prices. The mystery of the UK property market ... IMO this is crazy as I trust LR data. Perhaps the sign of the bubble. What is the gross rental profit for your area? I would say about 5% ??? Edited February 5, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 (edited) The mystery of the UK property market ... IMO this is crazy as I trust LR data. Perhaps the sign of the bubble. What is the gross rental profit for your area? I would say about 5% ??? I'd go with 3-4%. The LR data is the best real measure we have. Even if it was fiddled, it would be relatively representable of what's going on and what went on in 2000-2007 I am not joking thought, I have seen houses up for asking prices that can easily be seen on the LR data as being 50% more than a quick calculation says they are worth. If such properties were selling the LR index would go through the roof. I just don't get it. I dont get any of it this, the whole thing is a false/fixed market as far as I am concerned. Also, I've been doing some bigger searches, NN1+40 miles last few days. To saw that there are floods of top end properties at £1M+ coming onto the market would be an understatement. The boomers are trying to cash in me thinks. Who's going to buy....not I. Edited February 5, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 And you believe that to be true just because they say it? It is rather compelling; the authorities repeatedly now that our banks can withstand a big HPC and a whole set of other hard economic shocks, without need of bailouts. You can choose to take notice or not. It is certainly a different tone to that of years previous years. Added to which you need to look at the motive banks may have for HPC; the joy of younger buyers drowning out the howl of complacent older owners losing fortunes in 'locked-in / small island / not enough homes' equity to the will and unleashed volatility of the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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