Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 And they must be drying up, so price correction imminent? Volumes have been low for a long time. Forced sellers have also been very low. Worst case I can see is more sideways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Only people with decent deposits are buying. I would say it is impossible to buy without a decent cash deposit.....it could well be a borrowed cash deposit....wealth created from debt.....happy days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'll take two. Exactly - but politicians have made it unacceptable for banks to repossess and banks don't want to do it either as they would have to write off the debt and raise more capital. Much better all round to lets these loans rot on the books. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I have been since '05. Gosh ur so cleva. Next recession they won't be able to slash int rates... Bankruptcies, liquidations, repos etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Volumes have been low for a long time. Forced sellers have also been very low. Worst case I can see is more sideways. What about if rates move up and people just parking money in London property start selling up? Plus of course all the I.O people who will be blown up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Exactly - but politicians have made it unacceptable for banks to repossess and banks don't want to do it either as they would have to write off the debt and raise more capital. Much better all round to lets these loans rot on the books. That`s the hard working families, what about the BTL brigade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Funny. According to those arch bears, John D Wood, -20% I only use land registry figures. Check them for yourself - there are lots of areas in London which never saw a year on year fall. I would never believe an estate agent - surprised you do? Just pull the real sale data from the land registry - you'll see i'm correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 That`s the hard working families, what about the BTL brigade? Yes true - but they are only in trouble if interest rates rise - that's not going to happen this side of the election. MPC are government puppets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What about if rates move up and people just parking money in London property start selling up? Plus of course all the I.O people who will be blown up? Maybe - but rates are not rising before election. Politicians are buying time - over the last few years the loan to value has dropped a large amount in London. New buyers have to have big deposits. BTL'ers have had years of low rates to pay back some debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I only use land registry figures. Check them for yourself - there are lots of areas in London which never saw a year on year fall. I would never believe an estate agent - surprised you do? Just pull the real sale data from the land registry - you'll see i'm correct. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Maybe - but rates are not rising before election. Politicians are buying time - over the last few years the loan to value has dropped a large amount in London. New buyers have to have big deposits. BTL'ers have had years of low rates to pay back some debt. Gilt rates have been? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Gilt rates have been? I was talking about MPC interest rate. Gilts and US Treasuries and Bunds have all been rising but this is a sign of confidence as investors look for greater returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yes true - but they are only in trouble if interest rates rise - that's not going to happen this side of the election. MPC are government puppets. Who cares what the empty suits at the BoE think? Base rates don't determine mortgage rates, the market does. January 2013, US 30yr ave mortgage rate 3.35% January 2014, US 30yr ave mortgage rate 4.53% The cost hike is even greater when fees and are included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Land Registry - the most accurate source of property prices show large areas of London had a small dip in '08 and in '09 the prices returned and exceed the '08 peak. The numbers are freely available here (http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/) if you want to try and prove me wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Who cares what the empty suits at the BoE think? Base rates don't determine mortgage rates, the market does. January 2013, US 30yr ave mortgage rate 3.35% January 2014, US 30yr ave mortgage rate 4.53% The cost hike is even greater when fees and are included. What are the UK figures? Are the 2014 from swap rates? I'm not sure i'm seeing mortgage rates rising looking at: https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/categories/comparison-tables http://www.swap-rates.com/UKSwap.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Who cares what the empty suits at the BoE think? Base rates don't determine mortgage rates, the market does. January 2013, US 30yr ave mortgage rate 3.35% January 2014, US 30yr ave mortgage rate 4.53% The cost hike is even greater when fees and are included. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2521383/Bank-England-Mortgage-rates-year-low.html Bank of England figures reveal mortgage rates at a six-year low as three-quarters of buyers take a fix (apologies from daily mail owned website - ugh - but i think data is correct?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHERWICK Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 ......you are rather good at hyping the situation.....many people living in London I would say don't feel they are 'booming'.....are you in sales? Well winkie, I've lived in London for decades and can confirm that it is indeed booming like no other time I've known. Something like San Francisco in the late 90s (where i also lived at the time) but more so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well winkie, I've lived in London for decades and can confirm that it is indeed booming like no other time I've known. Something like San Francisco in the late 90s (where i also lived at the time) but more so. I am talking about the priced out the 70%.......they are renting from the booming and feel they did not get an invitation to the party.......just waiting for the hangover, the time to sober up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Land Registry - the most accurate source of property prices show large areas of London had a small dip in '08 and in '09 the prices returned and exceed the '08 peak. I was laughing at you saying you don't trust EAs. 1. Sounds as if you are one 2. Bet you don't say that when they say prices have risen. 3. If John D Wood said in 2009 that prices fell 20% in 2008 I think they would not lie about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Next recession they won't be able to slash int rates... Bankruptcies, liquidations, repos etc Typical of HPC. Noone responds to this one and suggests noone here can imagine we are Japan and rates will stay low for 'ever'. They likely will. And actually this will achieve all your objectives. Rising rates will not - well not for years after they start rising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well winkie, I've lived in London for decades and can confirm that it is indeed booming like no other time I've known. Absolutely no doubt London is growing strongly. What happens when stock market crashes? Again. After a global economic implosion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I was laughing at you saying you don't trust EAs. 1. Sounds as if you are one 2. Bet you don't say that when they say prices have risen. 3. If John D Wood said in 2009 that prices fell 20% in 2008 I think they would not lie about that. oh i see. But i still don't understand why you deny LR figures - I know not perfect - but they are by far the best data out there. And they clearly show my point. Last purchase was completed without use an estate agent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neitherland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Typical of HPC. Noone responds to this one and suggests noone here can imagine we are Japan and rates will stay low for 'ever'. They likely will. And actually this will achieve all your objectives. Rising rates will not - well not for years after they start rising. Maybe we don't respond as its just a random statement without evidence from someone who doesn't have the best track record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomandlu Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Absolutely no doubt London is growing strongly. What happens when stock market crashes? Again. After a global economic implosion? I don't think anyone disputes that a black swan would be a loose cannon that would rock the boat and bring the chickens home to roost, but right now, denying there's a boom in London is just silly. As a London renter, I would love it to be different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 (edited) Maybe we don't respond as its just a random statement without evidence HAHAHAHAHAHAHA We are doing and experiencing almost exactly as the Japanese did in early 90s. There are huge deflationary forces - taxes, flat or falling earnings, underemployment, EU(!) etc Until and unless 30 yr US rate rises above c 4% and stays there, we are all #Japan #2. Also, it was anything but random. It was entirely relevant: "View PostNeitherland, on 04 January 2014 - 04:05 PM, said: I have been ...[watching this space]... since '05. Next recession they won't be able to slash int rates... Bankruptcies, liquidations, repos etc " But of course you have your oh so cleva rationale for not debating the point. Next implosion they will not be able to slash rates, we are Japan and stocks and house fell 80% in Japan during 15-20 years to 2012. And most on HPC cannot envisage anything other than higher and higher rates. They've been on the wrong side and I suggest will be again with that thinking. Edited January 4, 2014 by Killer Bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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