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Mrs Bear

House Price Rises Must Stop!

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What paper?

Telegraph

But what I take objection towards is "another bubble"

This "another bubble" talk conveniently sweeps the current bubble we are within under the carpet making everything seem rosy so long as we don't ramp prices further.

Edited by LiveinHope

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What paper?

Telegraph.

The article is the usual stuff about price rises "risk" returning to a bubble etc. The language is the usual complete denial of a problem now, just that there might be one in future. eg it cites Nationwide's 5% below peak hpi as evidence that we are not yet in a bubble.

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Telegraph.

The article is the usual stuff about price rises "risk" returning to a bubble etc. The language is the usual complete denial of a problem now, just that there might be one in future. eg it cites Nationwide's 5% below peak hpi as evidence that we are not yet in a bubble.

Yes, of course, but I did find it amazing to see a front page headline like that in the Telegraph.

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As soon as that 5% gap with 2007 peak is reached - they can just press the 'rise in-line with inflation' button.

I don't know why everyone is freaking out.

Osborne has it all under control.

1. Stoke housing inflation boom

2. Keep rates artificially low

3. ????

4. Profit

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Telegraph

But what I take objection towards is "another bubble"

This "another bubble" talk conveniently sweeps the current bubble we are within under the carpet making everything seem rosy so long as we don't ramp prices further.

Exactly.

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Well, there were never front page headlines like this in 2007. Is this what the end of the "Return to Normal Phase" looks like? At the very least speculators can no longer rely on unanimous political and media support for HPI.

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As soon as that 5% gap with 2007 peak is reached - they can just press the 'rise in-line with inflation' button.

I don't know why everyone is freaking out.

Osborne has it all under control.

1. Stoke housing inflation boom

2. Keep rates artificially low

3. ????

4. Profit

Osborne's got nothing under control. He still needs to borrow £120bn/yr to keep rates low and maintain the illusion of prosperity. The course is no more sustainable than it was in 2007, only now the UK govt is driving the bus rather than merely collecting the fares.

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As another poster pointed out the other day. This is straight out of the 'Nigel Lawson Cook Book.'

The Nigella Lawson cook book (snort!)

Even better.

There's an election coming and Vince wants to pretend he's against house price rises like he pretended he was against student tuition fee rises.

He needs to make sure he can ride whichever horse is in the lead the day after the election.

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In two thirds of the country they have barely started moving and in London you would be closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.

Then you have the problem of which survey you believe...land registry, flat as a pancake and showing prices close to an inflation adjusted nadir or the more bullish Haliwide.

Certainly Nottingham looks closer to land registry, I'm guessing prices are at 2004 levels and about 30% down in real terms ( I'm guessing they are about to record double digit in 2014 though after ten years of nothing and the London ripple starting to fan out like a mega tsunami)

But the difference between the land registry and the ONS/Haliwide is a bloody joke and has got to confuse policy.

I know Osborne favours quoting land registry, he would wouldn't he.

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To be fair, it's better than nothing... at least his comments are going to make people realize either that (a) the higher house prices go, the more risk that it will be stopped in some way by the Bank of England [lol] (B) the Government is stoking this mini-boom in order to win an election.

Of course, from a HPC perspective, we know Vince's comments are a bit misleading - as others have pointed out, saying there is a RISK of a bubble completely disguises the fact that we still haven't finished the previous bubble.

After a TRIPLING of house prices in a decade, a 20% fall in prices does not represent the end of the bubble... merely a pause to take in more air :D

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Yesterday the BBC reported a 25% YoY rise in house prices in Hammersmith & Fulham. They then interviewed two estate agents. Nobody raised an eyebrow.

It's based on valuations from the Nationwide - not sure how they calculate the end figure. For Manchester it's 21%.

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Yesterday the BBC reported a 25% YoY rise in house prices in Hammersmith & Fulham. They then interviewed two estate agents. Nobody raised an eyebrow.

It's based on valuations from the Nationwide - not sure how they calculate the end figure. For Manchester it's 21%.

the nationwide worry me...they are a mutual who appear to me to be acting like a pre 2007 bank.

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the nationwide worry me...they are a mutual who appear to me to be acting like a pre 2007 bank.

The Nationwide lend big income multiples and long term mortgages way over 25 years. These are inflationary sales tactics, get the lends in now and worry about the risk later. It's no surprise then that Nationwide borrowers have a bit more to offer and considering how many panicking potential buyers are out there (must buy now before it's too late!!) it's no surprise that they publish these figures. What we are really seeing is a lender adding risk to its mortgage book based on a gamble that the state will continue to support house price inflation.

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