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10 Years On This Site And Still No Hpc

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I have been following the HPC threads on this site for over 10 years and still no HPC in view.

In fact approximately 10 years ago after being gazumped, this site influenced my decision to stay out of the market for a period because the HPC was allegedly imminent then! I lost a substantial amount of money as a result..

I consequently ended up in an inferior position property-wise and have been hoping to get back near enough to where I was, but have been unable to do so due to rising property prices. A HPC in my locality would help, but there isn't even a hint of one, in fact it is the exact opposite.

A HPC would have to be significant to improve most people's chances, and what is going to precipitate that anytime soon? What also concerns me is a HPC of that magnitude, even if it did come relatively soon, could have far reaching negative implications that could make it a pyrrhic victory.

What say you?

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I have been following the HPC threads on this site for over 10 years and still no HPC in view.

In fact approximately 10 years ago after being gazumped, this site influenced my decision to stay out of the market for a period because the HPC was allegedly imminent then! I lost a substantial amount of money as a result..

What say you?

Here we go again.

No there was no crash in 2008. You couldn't have bought in 2009. And there won;t be another one with a global economic implosion.

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I have been following the HPC threads on this site for over 10 years and still no HPC in view.

In fact approximately 10 years ago after being gazumped, this site influenced my decision to stay out of the market for a period because the HPC was allegedly imminent then! I lost a substantial amount of money as a result..

I consequently ended up in an inferior position property-wise and have been hoping to get back near enough to where I was, but have been unable to do so due to rising property prices. A HPC in my locality would help, but there isn't even a hint of one, in fact it is the exact opposite.

A HPC would have to be significant to improve most people's chances, and what is going to precipitate that anytime soon? What also concerns me is a HPC of that magnitude, even if it did come relatively soon, could have far reaching negative implications that could make it a pyrrhic victory.

What say you?

Hmmm, where I live prices are anything up to 50% off their nominal mid 2007 levels so definitely a HPC.

If you live in London/SE England then I could see things looking very different as that is where the fountain of quantitatively eased, cheap central bank money has gushed forth and floated asset prices.

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We've done this.

Several times.

You lost, like many others on here, because they changed all the rules to favour the rich and the banks, unless you also bought gold or defensive shares (not banks) or moved all money/assets abroad in 2004 in which case you're OK.

Nominal HPC will not come now unless there is a massive economic crash which would probably be so unpleasant you'll wish it had never happened anyway, accompanied by massive theft sorry bail-ins.

Your options to recover this situation are now limited.

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We've done this.

Several times.

You lost, like many others on here, because they changed all the rules to favour the rich and the banks, unless you also bought gold or defensive shares (not banks) or moved all money/assets abroad in 2004 in which case you're OK.

Nominal HPC will not come now unless there is a massive economic crash which would probably be so unpleasant you'll wish it had never happened anyway, accompanied by massive theft sorry bail-ins.

Your options to recover this situation are now limited.

So, leaving aside the fact that sales volumes are massively down, you think that enough willing debtors will come forward to sustain the present prices created by the biggest debt bubble in history, and things will just sail along with sellers getting what they think their house is worth?

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I have been following the HPC threads on this site for over 10 years and still no HPC in view.

In fact approximately 10 years ago after being gazumped, this site influenced my decision to stay out of the market for a period because the HPC was allegedly imminent then! I lost a substantial amount of money as a result..

I consequently ended up in an inferior position property-wise and have been hoping to get back near enough to where I was, but have been unable to do so due to rising property prices. A HPC in my locality would help, but there isn't even a hint of one, in fact it is the exact opposite.

A HPC would have to be significant to improve most people's chances, and what is going to precipitate that anytime soon? What also concerns me is a HPC of that magnitude, even if it did come relatively soon, could have far reaching negative implications that could make it a pyrrhic victory.

What say you?

If you were expecting a crash ten years ago then you were a bit premature, the bubble was just getting started then? NOW is a different matter, all the interventions are barely keeping the deflation in property prices at bay (volumes are still collapsing) and gilt rates are slowly ticking up. The banks won`t go under in a full HPC, that has been shown around the world and here, the accounts can be controlled to an extent by central banks? Those on I.O and with loans they can`t really afford are going to take the hit, as are those who were expecting a retirement windfall from property. Cameron out pushing HTB like a Z-Lister trying to push their latest book on the chat show circuit tells us how close to the end game we are IMO.

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NOW is a different matter, all the interventions are barely keeping the deflation in property prices at bay (volumes are still collapsing) and gilt rates are slowly ticking up. The banks won`t go under in a full HPC, that has been shown around the world and here, the accounts can be controlled to an extent by central banks? Those on I.O and with loans they can`t really afford are going to take the hit, as are those who were expecting a retirement windfall from property. Cameron out pushing HTB like a Z-Lister trying to push their latest book on the chat show circuit tells us how close to the end game we are IMO.

Nah, I agree that they are in trouble but they can drag this out for another 10 years easily.

As long as the amount of debt in the system keeps increasing then the plates will keep spinning. IMO they will gradually introduce the following:

- 30 year + mortgages

- Raise the retirement age to over 70 thus protecting the pension companies who have been massively punished by QE

- Raise university fees way above £9,000 per annum

- Keep interest rates at 0.5

- Cut services and benefits for those out of work or sick

- Eventually privatise the NHS (it doesn't matter whether Labour, UKIP or the Conservatives are in power they will eventually do this).

All of this will keep the game moving along.

Some people benefit from this ponzi scheme and will do anything to protect it. :angry:

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Nah, I agree that they are in trouble but they can drag this out for another 10 years easily.

As long as the amount of debt in the system keeps increasing then the plates will keep spinning. IMO they will gradually introduce the following:

- 30 year + mortgages

- Raise the retirement age to over 70 thus protecting the pension companies who have been massively punished by QE

- Raise university fees way above £9,000 per annum

- Keep interest rates at 0.5

- Cut services and benefits for those out of work or sick

- Eventually privatise the NHS (it doesn't matter whether Labour, UKIP or the Conservatives are in power they will eventually do this).

All of this will keep the game moving along.

Some people benefit from this ponzi scheme and will do anything to protect it. :angry:

The debt in the system is decreasing though?

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Nah, I agree that they are in trouble but they can drag this out for another 10 years easily.

As long as the amount of debt in the system keeps increasing then the plates will keep spinning. IMO they will gradually introduce the following:

- 30 year + mortgages

- Raise the retirement age to over 70 thus protecting the pension companies who have been massively punished by QE

- Raise university fees way above £9,000 per annum

- Keep interest rates at 0.5

- Cut services and benefits for those out of work or sick

- Eventually privatise the NHS (it doesn't matter whether Labour, UKIP or the Conservatives are in power they will eventually do this).

All of this will keep the game moving along.

Some people benefit from this ponzi scheme and will do anything to protect it. :angry:

It`s all about No 4 on the list, if their hand is forced on that one it`s game over

.

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the graph on the front page says otherwise.

some fools are buying off the back of cheap fls mortgages and now everyone thinks the good times are hear again...boy are they in for a shock...fls withdrawn and htb clearly no where near levels needed yo underpin a pyramid scheme.

we even have the p.m. of the country advertising htb2 like the outcome of the election depends on it.

money printing...law interest rates...tax payers money given away and the land registry STILL falling in real terms.

if you dont see what's posting obvious then you will never wee the real hpc.

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If you were expecting a crash ten years ago then you were a bit premature

I was reading this site ten years ago and the consensus view of the forum then was pretty clear...a crash in nominal house prices was imminent.

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No.

Government debt has been rising since 2001:

https://www.google.co.uk/#q=uk+debt

Personal debt is still rising:

http://themoneychari...ebt-statistics/

Also the savings ratio has fallen.

The first one, okay fair enough, they are taking up the slack, or trying to. The second one though, it isn`t mortgage debt that is rising is it, otherwise why all the HTB schemes?

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I was reading this site ten years ago and the consensus view of the forum then was pretty clear...a crash in nominal house prices was imminent.

Yes, but as I said that view at the time was premature, the pieces were not in place then for a collapse, the signs were there yes, but it is only now that we are close to HPC proper.

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I was reading this site ten years ago and the consensus view of the forum then was pretty clear...a crash in nominal house prices was imminent.

Me too. Prices were clearly well above 3 times the average wage which many felt was evidence of bubble territory.

I ended up buying in 2005 and it was a good thing I did - prices around here are up nearly 50% from the peak.

I remain a bear but know that policies like H2B can only keep the bubble afloat for a limited period until unintended consequences kick in.

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At least the HPC massive saw the crisis looming. Something that couldn't be said of the Economics professoriat generally; or the IMF, the World Bank, the US Federal Reserve, etc. That the fate of the world is still in the hands of these halfwits and charlatans is hardly our responsibility.

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I was reading this site ten years ago and the consensus view of the forum then was pretty clear...a crash in nominal house prices was imminent.

Amazed at how house prices have been pushed up, never thought it would happen back then, but things change. When Lehman Brothers collapsed it looked like the end, but somehow it wasn't. No one could have predicted 0.5% interest rates and quantitative easing and its effects. Also fiscal drag regarding stamp duty has reduced supply whilst increased immigration has pushed up demand. Buy to Let has also added to demand.

2014 : High demand + restricted supply + low interest rates = No Crash

1992: Low demand + plentiful supply + high interest rates = Crash

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There has been a crash, if you look at the value of Sterling vs other reserve currencies, and also in real terms with regards to inflation, of something in the region of 20-30% depending how you look at it.

The big nominal crash didn't happen because everything including the kitchen sink was thrown to stop it happening, and it worked.

Are we still in a bubble or are we in a 'new normal' reflecting multiple earner households, historic and long lasting low interest rates, and record percentages of wealthy cash or high-deposit buyers (including foreigners seeking safe haven for their cash) looking to 'invest'? I don't know but all of the above trends seem quite persistent to me and unlikely to reverse all at once any time soon. The collapse from where I'm sitting is far less imminent than it seemed in 2004, when I started reading this site.

I offered on a 4-bed detached at the start of last year, after STR in late 2004 when I first got the wobbles about the whole thing partly from reading this site, and decided to rent not buy when I moved area from Scotland to Somerset. By the time I completed the purchase last summer that meant over 9 years when I could have been paying down a mortgage instead of saving at crap rates while paying rent (aka someone else's mortgage).

For a long time I valued the flexibility, while I just didn't want to buy at pre-2008 prices, but now I just want to have a place fully paid off before I retire in 15 years. So I bought with a 15 year term, on decent deposit with a 4% 10-year fix. Now, I don't care if rates go up and nominal falls finally happen, I'm done with putting this particular life goal on hold.

I don't regret my time spent renting but I'm glad I bought now in the SE 45mins out of Paddington, at something around the 2005-6 purchase price level (some years earlier in real terms). There may well be a train wreck down the line but my purchase actually feels like value to me and I don't want to live my life praying for bad news any more.

And after 10 years of magnolia walls, no pets, limited privacy, and the constant threat of being thrown out as soon as the landlord hits a cashflow crisis and needs to sell up (twice that happened) I'm seriously happy in my new place.

Edited by montesquieu

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There has been a crash, if you look at the value of Sterling vs other reserve currencies, and also in real terms with regards to inflation, of something in the region of 20-30% depending how you look at it.

The big nominal crash didn't happen because everything including the kitchen sink was thrown to stop it happening, and it worked.

Are we still in a bubble or are we in a 'new normal' reflecting multiple earner households, historic and long lasting low interest rates, and record percentages of wealthy cash or high-deposit buyers (including foreigners seeking safe haven for their cash) looking to 'invest'? I don't know but all of the above trends seem quite persistent to me and unlikely to reverse all at once any time soon. The collapse from where I'm sitting is far less imminent than it seemed in 2004, when I started reading this site.

I offered on a 4-bed detached at the start of last year, after STR in late 2004 when I first got the wobbles about the whole thing partly from reading this site, and decided to rent not buy when I moved area from Scotland to Somerset. By the time I completed the purchase last summer that meant over 9 years when I could have been paying down a mortgage instead of saving at crap rates while paying rent (aka someone else's mortgage).

For a long time I valued the flexibility, while I just didn't want to buy at pre-2008 prices, but now I just want to have a place fully paid off before I retire in 15 years. So I bought with a 15 year term, on decent deposit with a 4% 10-year fix. Now, I don't care if rates go up and nominal falls finally happen, I'm done with putting this particular life goal on hold.

I don't regret my time spent renting but I'm glad I bought now in the SE 45mins out of Paddington, at something around the 2005-6 purchase price level (some years earlier in real terms). There may well be a train wreck down the line but my purchase actually feels like value to me and I don't want to live my life praying for bad news any more.

And after 10 years of magnolia walls, no pets, limited privacy, and the constant threat of being thrown out as soon as the landlord hits a cashflow crisis and needs to sell up (twice that happened) I'm seriously happy in my new place.

Good post.

I STR'd a London commuter house in 2005. When Lehman Brothers went I thought I was the smartest guy in the room. More fool me.

Had a few stomach churning nights as the house sale money was mainly on deposit with banks that could have gone under, but eventually it worked out well as it all got tipped into equities at close to the FTSE bottom. Bought a couple of years ago, but as I don't expect housing to be a good investment for the next generation or two I got the smallest place I needed rather than the biggest place I could afford.

I'd welcome a big fall in nominal house prices as otherwise I'll be buying flats for my kids, but as I see no end to ultra low interest rates I doubt that'll happen. I should qualify that. It's pretty much a racing certainty that base rates will be increased in 2015 or 2016. But we're probably going to see one or two quarter point increases and then nothing for a few years, then one or two more minute increases, then nothing again for a long long time. In other words, even though base rates may be trending up in the future, the era of cheap money could be with us for decades.

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