Is World War Three About To Start... By Accident? Max Hastings Asks Whether Rising Tensions Between China And Japan Could Boil Over

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2532932/Is-World-War-Three-start-accident-Max-Hastings-asks-rising-tensions-China-Japan-boil-over.html

He even compared Japan today to Lord Voldemort, the arch villain in the Harry Potter novels.

This comes just a few weeks after China — with absolutely no warning — declared hundreds of thousands of square miles of airspace above the East China Sea as its own Air Defence Zone.

This includes the eight tiny uninhabited pimples, called the Senkaku Islands by Japan and Diaoyu by China.

Taiwan also has a claim to the islands — nationalised by Japan from private sellers in 2012, much to the anger of China.

..

Remember that in 1914 before the outbreak of World War I, Britain and Germany were each other's largest trading partners. Professor Peter Dutton, of the U.S. Naval War College, has warned of the growing tensions, saying: 'China's challenge to existing maritime norms is creating hairline fractures in the global order.'

..

Amitai Etzioni, professor of international relations at George Washington University, declares bleakly: 'There are increasing signs that the United States and China are on a collision course.'

What is not disputed is that China is determined to assert its new status as a major regional power, while the U.S. is equally bent upon deterring or deflecting Chinese expansionism, and especially aggressiveness.

This was the reason behind President Obama's 2010 decision to rebalance American strategic assets towards the Pacific.

The American case is as readily made as was the British one, for resisting quite similar German posturing before 1914. Washington's attitude is: 'We and our allies are democracies, while China is an autocracy which denies respect for human rights or international law.'

The first world war get triggered by stupidity and it's quite clear the elites haven't got beyond the 5 year old stage so it's likely a flash point someone else could trigger of conflict.

I'm sure I read somewhere that prior to the first world war Germany had decided it couldn't compete with the Royal Navy and decided to focus it's efforts elsewhere, which obviously the great success of dragging both France and the UK into armed conflict.

[Bossybabe]

I am downcast at this analysis. The thought of a sort of inevitable slide into another conflict like WW2, but with today's weapons is horrific. The thought that the combined brain power of the world's leaders is unlikely to be able stop this is unsurprising but depressing.

[Frank Hovis]

Won't happen, never does.

There will be a few minor skirmishes over the next five years followed by a peace summit and that will be it. It will however fill lots of column inches, it's all rather like that Jonathan Price Bond film.

[Butthead]

Washington's attitude is: 'We and our allies are democracies, while China is an autocracy which denies respect for human rights or international law.'

Wait, they're serious?

[Guest eight]

WW3 has been about to start for my entire life.

[fluffy666]

They've both got MacDonalds chains.

So did Serbia.

[Darkman]

The first world war get triggered by stupidity and it's quite clear the elites haven't got beyond the 5 year old stage so it's likely a flash point someone else could trigger of conflict.

I'm sure I read somewhere that prior to the first world war Germany had decided it couldn't compete with the Royal Navy and decided to focus it's efforts elsewhere, which obviously the great success of dragging both France and the UK into armed conflict.

I was reading about the territorial conflicts in the area months ago and actually came to the same conclusion in my own mind i.e. that this looks bad and could trigger WW3. The real problem is between the USA and China, because somehow they need to establish who is really in control now that the USA is weakened and China is so much stronger. Without nuclear weapons I think war would already have started. But since the nuclear option exists both sides are fearful of a real escalation. Unfortunately this can't last forever and something is going to happen sooner or later. I have a bad feeling about China.

[scrappycocco]

God help us if they adopt the "attack your own people and blame it on the other side" tactics.

[oracle]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2532932/Is-World-War-Three-start-accident-Max-Hastings-asks-rising-tensions-China-Japan-boil-over.html

The first world war get triggered by stupidity and it's quite clear the elites haven't got beyond the 5 year old stage so it's likely a flash point someone else could trigger of conflict.

I'm sure I read somewhere that prior to the first world war Germany had decided it couldn't compete with the Royal Navy and decided to focus it's efforts elsewhere, which obviously the great success of dragging both France and the UK into armed conflict.

for now I think we will most likely see "30 years war" type scenario in ME between sunni/shia..(except it'll be so bloody they'll do it in less than 3)

if they are lucky islam will go through their version of the protestant reformation, and they'll realise that there is life after the finger-wagging clerics have been proven to be nothing more than power-hungry oligarchs.

Saudi threats towards russia most likely to backfire, and align russia a bit more friendly fashion toward the west...after a bit at least.. I still expect them to be sort of hostile in the beginning,but will not take kindly to having their own weapons fired at them.

russia I think will change their mind after a few more "beslans"...which were threatened, are carried out.(even marxist russia now "get it" that they are also considered kaffir by the mad mullahs)

might be a couple of regional scuffles in asia....if stuff is happening in china then the major timeframe is 2025-2026( that's their year of the fire horse...they usually end up in conflict of some kind in these)......last one between china/japan was 1967 IIRC...so pretty much bang on schedule.

well for all prophecy nuts then you need to keep an eye on the balkans.

there's supposed to be a couple of assassinations of some statesmen before the big one starts.( serbia is prime suspect for the country in which said assassinations are done)

I've no doubt it will be all over the news.

when that happens, run for it!

[oracle]

I was reading about the territorial conflicts in the area months ago and actually came to the same conclusion in my own mind i.e. that this looks bad and could trigger WW3. The real problem is between the USA and China, because somehow they need to establish who is really in control now that the USA is weakened and China is so much stronger. Without nuclear weapons I think war would already have started. But since the nuclear option exists both sides are fearful of a real escalation. Unfortunately this can't last forever and something is going to happen sooner or later. I have a bad feeling about China.

there is far worse weaponry out there than nukes now.

the problem with warfare is that the "killer app" of the last one, become de-facto standard in the next...until the next "killer app" is revealed.

I would be much much more worried about hi-tech bacterial war than I would nukes...because it is much sneakier.

nukes make a loud bang and kill a couple of hundred thousand instantly...it also takes a lot of time and effort to deliver said payload

(and anyway, nukes have been replaced by scalar/particle beam and accoustic weapons...and yes we do have them).

a decent sized fuel-air bomb these days has just as much destructive power as a hiroshima-type nuke

we can quite legitimately claim to be reducing our nuclear stockpile, and turning the uranium in question into fuel......to power the above.

[Niall of the Nine Hostages]

there is far worse weaponry out there than nukes now.

the problem with warfare is that the "killer app" of the last one, become de-facto standard in the next...until the next "killer app" is revealed.

I would be much much more worried about hi-tech bacterial war than I would nukes...because it is much sneakier.

nukes make a loud bang and kill a couple of hundred thousand instantly...it also takes a lot of time and effort to deliver said payload

(and anyway, nukes have been replaced by scalar/particle beam and accoustic weapons...and yes we do have them)

we can quite legitimately claim to be reducing our nuclear stockpile, and turning the uranium in question into fuel......to power the above.

In WWII the Germans had nerve gas. They didn't use it, despite the rape of 3 million+ German women by the advancing Red Army and rumours that the Allies would implement the Morganthau plan, because they thought the allies would retaliate in kind and use nerve gas on them.

Why would nuclear weapons be any different?

[interestrateripoff]

The Reluctant Admiral: Yamamoto and the Imperial Navy

Just started reading this, apparently there was an Abe govt when WWII kicked off with the invasion of Poland....

[Mrs Bear]

I was reading about the territorial conflicts in the area months ago and actually came to the same conclusion in my own mind i.e. that this looks bad and could trigger WW3. The real problem is between the USA and China, because somehow they need to establish who is really in control now that the USA is weakened and China is so much stronger. Without nuclear weapons I think war would already have started. But since the nuclear option exists both sides are fearful of a real escalation. Unfortunately this can't last forever and something is going to happen sooner or later. I have a bad feeling about China.

My old geography teacher was fond of saying (and this was an awful long time ago), 'China - is Public Enemy - Number - One!' She would put a dreadful emphasis on the words. It's no wonder I've never forgotten.

At the time most people were a lot more worried about the Russians. After I decided to study Russian at uni a friend of my father's said, 'Good choice - at least when they invade you'll be able to get on the committee.'

[MrPin]

My old geography teacher was fond of saying (and this was an awful long time ago), 'China - is Public Enemy - Number - One!' She would put a dreadful emphasis on the words. It's no wonder I've never forgotten.

At the time most people were a lot more worried about the Russians. After I decided to study Russian at uni a friend of my father's said, 'Good choice - at least when they invade you'll be able to get on the committee.'

I studied Russian at school! Apparently I have a very "Moskva" accent! My teacher, well she was Russian! I was the only "science" student doing "Russian" as a "leisure" subject! Most chose pottery, but their brains were small!

[Mrs Bear]

I studied Russian at school! Apparently I have a very "Moskva" accent! My teacher, well she was Russian! I was the only "science" student doing "Russian" as a "leisure" subject! Most chose pottery, but their brains were small!

Dobriy vyecher, Tovarishch Pin! Must confess mine is as rusty as a very rusty old bike lurking in our garage, but I did manage to ask some Russian tourists back in the summer where they'd been for a swim. God knows where I dug up the swim verb from - the brain is a wonderful thing...

[happy_renting]

The Reluctant Admiral: Yamamoto and the Imperial Navy

Just started reading this, apparently there was an Abe govt when WWII kicked off with the invasion of Poland....

A very Anglo-centric view of 'when WWII kicked off'. The Chinese might reasonably claim that it started with the Manchurian Incident, or the japanese invasion of China, and I would be minded to agree.

Nothing is ever simple. I recently discovered something that happened when Germany annexed part of Czechlosovakia in 1938.

Poland reacted... by annexing a bit of Czechlosovakia too.

Like I say, nothing is ever simple.

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-08/japan-plans-nationalize-280-more-ownership-unknown-islands

15 months after acquiring three disputed islands in the Senkakus, and amid growing tensions with the Chinese following tit-for-tat air-defense zones, Abe's visit to the war-shrine, and public-opinion battles; Japan may have just cranked the rhetoric dial to 11. As Japan Times reports, the Japanese government will nationalize about 280 islands whose ownership is unknown out of the about 400 remote islands that serve as markers for determining Japan’s territorial waters.

Under the plan, announced Tuesday, the government will complete its search for the islands’ owners (which began in August) by June. This follows already tense warnings this evening from China that "Japan's moving in a dangerous direction."

I wonder what the reaction to this will be...

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-24/china-strikes-back-happy-review-world-history-japan

On the heels of Shinzo Abe's seeming hyprocrisy in Davos, commenting that "if peace and stability were shaken in Asia, the knock-on effect for the entire world would be enormous," while he raises military budget, antagonizes China, and inflames the militaristic fervor in his own nation with war-crime shrine visits, the Chinese have struck back specifically at Abe's comparison of China and Japan's present tensions to Germany and Britain's in 1914... Foreign Minister Wang Yi - writing from the Chinese Embassy in the US, warned:

*CHINA'S WANG CALLS ABE'S STATEMENT ON WW1 'ANACHRONISTIC'

*CHINA HAPPY TO REVIEW WORLD HISTORY WITH ABE: WANG YI

*CHINA WANTS ABE TO RETHINK OWN COMMENTS, ACTIONS: WANG YI

Adding that, as we warned last night (and described in great detail here), China and the US need to show mutual respect and avoid conflict and confrontation on the matter of Japan.

Yi warns...

*CHINA SAYS ABE 'SHOULDN'T GO DOWN WRONG PATH': WANG YI

*JAPAN REFUSES TO ADMIT THERE'S DISPUTE OVER ISLANDS: WANG YI

*CHINA WILL NEVER ALLOW FASCIST, MILITARIST IDEAS TO REVIVE: FM

*CHINA TO RESOLVE DISPUTES THROUGH DIALOG: WANG YI

China to resolve disputes by talking and building more aircraft carriers and seeking an air base in the South China Seas....

[The Ayatollah Buggeri]

AEP in the Torygraph thinks that things could now kick off, too, specifically in relation to China-Japan mieowing and hissing.

[Darkman]

When asked what he thought about the latest warning by Japan's leader Shinzo Abe that the two countries are like England and Germany in 1914, he exploded with barely contained rage:

Well I suppose comparing the situation to the beginning of WWI doesn't really help anyone

[okaycuckoo]

Like I say, nothing is ever simple.

I thought there was a universal algorithm for that.

[interestrateripoff]

http://news.usni.org/2014/02/18/navy-official-china-training-short-sharp-war-japan

China has long trained for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan during military exercises but has expanded its training to include a similar attack on Japanese holdings in the East China Sea, according the chief of intelligence of the U.S. Pacific Fleet (PACFLEET).

As part of China’s Mission Action 2013 exercise — a massive exercise between the all branches of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) — the military trained for taking the Senkaku Islands, said Capt. James Fanell, deputy chief of staff intelligence and information operations for PACFLEET.

“We witnessed the massive amphibious and cross military region enterprise — Mission Action 2013,” Fanell said at the West 2014 conference on Feb. 13 in San Diego, Calif.

“[We] concluded that the PLA has been given the new task to be able to conduct a short sharp war to destroy Japanese forces in the East China Sea following with what can only be expected a seizure of the Senkakus or even a southern Ryukyu [islands] — as some of their academics say.”

In the last year, China has increased the military activity has additionally increased provocative military actions in the South China Sea around the so-called Nine Dash Line — China’s expansive claim into the region in conflict with several other international claims.

“As a senior U.S. government official recently stated, there is growing concern that China’s pattern of behavior in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assert control of the area contained in the so-called 9-dash line despite the objections of its neighbors, and despite the lack of any explanation or apparent basis under international law.” Fanell said.

Getting closer?

[The Masked Tulip]

http://news.usni.org/2014/02/18/navy-official-china-training-short-sharp-war-japan

Getting closer?

Nothing will happen until HMS Folly is completed and deployed. We have a history of sending newly built warships to the South China Sea and getting them sunk.

Japan has a secret weapon up its sleeve - 60 years of anime with young Japanese men and women dressing up in scanty female costumes. They can follow it up with a legion of Call of Duty warriors - just as long as they aren't asked to leave their bedrooms.

Buy Lockheed stock - you know war makes sense.

[1929crash]

I think that if ww3 is going to start soon, the place to watch is the Ukraine.

We now know for certain - given the leaked telephone call between the US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and US ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt - that Washington has been fomenting this unrest.

Russia has vital strategic interests in the country and I don't think Putin is going to let the birthplace of Mother Russia fall to NATO.

[General Belgrano]

Dangerous times, Ukraine is a flash point and US and EU are funding the instability and baiting the Bear. The problem with escalation politics is a mistake can be made at local level. This may set off a chain reaction causing serious conflict and loss of life. The cold war was full of these types of incidents in the early days, this could have made the war go "hot" at any time.

The thing to look out for is activity around ports, especially oil terminals. NATO has a pipeline network around Europe (well to West Germany and North of the Alps). A successor of D-Days PLUTO Pipeline under the ocean.

CEPS pipeline

This is separate from domestic fuel pipelines and can run at high pressure. Supplies the big airbases Spangdahlen, Ramstien, etc. The large armoured formations may have a spring exercise planned? Unfortunately we are not prepared for another descent of the Iron Curtain, good job most Poles now live in the UK and Ireland. The cold war was great for jobs, but now is not then and I'm not sure you can just start these types of things up again, like reopening a department store that has been closed 20 years...

South China Sea will happen, Islands will change hands and ships will sink. But like the Falkands loss of life will be amongst the military and contained. UN will enforce an agreement, population's attention will be diverted from a) Financial collapse and radioactivity

Also in a separate development, where I live, conscription signed into law last week, registration this sunday