Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Wurzel Of Highbridge

10-Year Us Treasury Notes Just Hit 3%

Recommended Posts

First direct are still offering mortgages from 1.6% (2 year fixed) to 2.59% for 5 year fixed.

Surely rates will rise when everyone gets back to work next week? What's riskier lending to UK property or to the US government?

1531u02.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like record highs, because I know what usually comes a short time after.

New record highs upon highs, in much of my experience.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

New record highs upon highs, in much of my experience.

that has certainly been the story for the S&P for the last couple of years

quite how long that will continue remains to be seen, but it has been a one way ticket since Oct 2011 really

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

that has certainly been the story for the S&P for the last couple of years

quite how long that will continue remains to be seen, but it has been a one way ticket since Oct 2011 really

As long as $75bn QE keeps hitting the primary dealer accounts each and every month then the US indexes will continue to grind higher. The deficit is now dramatically smaller than at any time since 2007 so there'll be far less Treasury supply to purchase going forward, potentially the upside moves could be very big indeed. The best argument for a hard taper next year, in fact: the S&P is already in a bubble, additional liquidity is what it now needs least of all.

Instructively, the FTSE100 has been stuck around 6400-6600 where it's been for almost the entire year. Compare and contrast the differing fortunes. No additional sterling QE in 2013 = no price growth in equities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As long as $75bn

After doing this for a number of years the p/e ratios will be so screwed that it will not work. Stock prices can't continue rising forever, they have to bear some relation to the underlying company who issues them otherwise they are just another worthless paper investment.

Would you pay £100 per share for something that will only give you £1 return a year and has massive loss of capital risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Would you pay £100 per share for something that will only give you £1 return a year and has massive loss of capital risk.

Many investors think it's the recovery, back to growth, including at least 2 members at HPC. US deleveraged on private debt, had their hpc, and this move to markets signifying belief in growth, pulling money out of bonds to invest in stocks. Can't find the source I read today on how down bonds and gilts are on the year, versus stock markets that only go up.

Investors put $346 billion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that own stocks this year as of Dec. 23, according to data TrimTabs Investment Research. That's more than the $324 billion investors put into these funds in all of 2000, when the bubble in technology stocks burst, and is the largest annual inflow on record, said TrimTabs chief executive David Santschi.

.. Meanwhile, the bond market is on track for its worst year in history. Investors withdrew $77 billion from bond mutual funds and ETFs this year, making 2013 the worst year ever for bond funds, according to TrimTabs.

This is the first time in nearly a decade that investors have taken more money out bond funds than they've put in -- and it tops the previous record from 1994 when investors withdrew almost $63 billion. Bond yields rise when prices fall, and prices have fallen a lot this year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly traded at 3% on Thursday. That matches the highest level of the year and is up from a low of 1.63% back in May.

in full: http://money.cnn.com...lows/index.html

Today: In the bond market, U.S. benchmark Treasuries yields edged higher and were just below their two-year high of 3 percent. Analysts said that if yields stay at that level for an extended period, it might be a negative for stocks and other risky assets.

Unless the stock markets believe conditions are part of a wider based recovery, that can handle higher rates.

Today: "There's nothing to drive markets decisively higher other than continued momentum, but I don't see that stopping. It has been a long time since we've had such an absence of headwinds," said Pete Benson, partner of Beacon Capital Management.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

US 10Y Yield Hits 3.019% - Highest Since July 2011

While a few media outlets had premature releases yesterday, Bloomberg data just confirmed that for the second time this year, 10Y US Treasury yields have crossed 3% (it was 3.005% in Sept 2013) breaking to the highest since July 2011 (right before the yield collapse after the US debt-ceiling downgrade debacle). We are sure the media will proclaim this as 'proof' that the recovery is different this time, except the term structure continues to flatten (suggesting less faith in the future) and to spice things up 30Y mortgage rates have surged to 4.63% - almost the highest since May 2011 -

20131227_10Y_0.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Treasury 10-year yields fell from the highest level in more than two years as investors speculated whether the U.S. economy will improve enough for the Federal Reserve to end bond purchases in 2014.

... “You’ll continue to see the 10-year yield grind higher, but it’s not going to be a one-way street,” said Kevin Flanagan, a Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. “When we cross the 3 percent threshold, that does bring some buyers in. The trend is higher, but it’s going to be more of a grind, not big leaps.”

Ten-year yields fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.99 percent at 5 p.m. New York time after climbing earlier to 3.05 percent, the highest since July 2011.

Yesterday: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-02/treasury-10-year-notes-fall-as-yield-rises-to-highest-since-2011.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The widely respected Hoisington Management duo of Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt have just published their Q4 Review and Outlook

It is interesting reading

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2013Q4NP.pdf

and concludes

"The slow nominal growth rate anticipated for 2014 should continue to put downward pressure on the inflation rate as the insufficiency of demand continues to create highly competitive markets. With slower inflation, lower long-term interest rates are a probable outcome"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The widely respected Hoisington Management duo of Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt have just published their Q4 Review and Outlook

It is interesting reading

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2013Q4NP.pdf

and concludes

"The slow nominal growth rate anticipated for 2014 should continue to put downward pressure on the inflation rate as the insufficiency of demand continues to create highly competitive markets. With slower inflation, lower long-term interest rates are a probable outcome"

Sounds like complete nonsense to me. Where are they getting their inflation figures from?

Inflation using the old methods is running at around 8-9%. Possibly more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like complete nonsense to me. Where are they getting their inflation figures from?

Inflation using the old methods is running at around 8-9%. Possibly more.

Why not ask them? Lacy normally responds to questions pretty quickly. Do be sure to have read the document properly though before you ask anything, that is only fair

Edited by JPJPJP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like complete nonsense to me. Where are they getting their inflation figures from?

Inflation using the old methods is running at around 8-9%. Possibly more.

They probably use the official inflation figures. Currently the official inflation number in the US is 1.5%

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

Where are your (8 - 9%) inflation figures from?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like complete nonsense to me. Where are they getting their inflation figures from?

Inflation using the old methods is running at around 8-9%. Possibly more.

CPI points to what RPI and assets will do. #TurningJapanese ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   209 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.