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Trampa501

Britain To Be Europe's Top Economy By 2030

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The calculations are based on population and currency mainly.

For UK versus Germany they forecast a strong £ versus Euro and a rapidly rising versus falling population.

I think they'll be stunningly wrong on both counts. Germany is already seeing big migrations from other EU countries by young people looking for work.

I agree with this. EU will muddle through and post positive growth in a year, sterling will weaken towards 2015 election significantly. UK disenfranchised will finally mean exodus of recent immigrant and locals.According to this PPP list we are way down already ($2000 dollars per person below Germany in 2012):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

'Using a PPP basis is arguably more useful when comparing generalized differences in living standards on the whole between nations because PPP takes into account the relative cost of living and the inflation rates of the countries, rather than using just exchange rates which may distort the real differences in income.'

However perhaps someone can correct me here- it doesn't look as if PPP takes full account of housing - same old problem with imputed rents??

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The calculations are based on population and currency mainly.

For UK versus Germany they forecast a strong £ versus Euro and a rapidly rising versus falling population.

I think they'll be stunningly wrong on both counts. Germany is already seeing big migrations from other EU countries by young people looking for work.

Germany has been losing population for quite some time now. Migration from Eastern Europe is not a new thing as anyone who's lived in East Germany can tell you. Despite waves of migration over the last few decades, the Germans simply aren't making enough babies.

However these figures depend on the willingness of the British voters to allow for further immigration at the same rates as now. As a lot of them have bought into the myth that "this island is full" it will be a hard sell.

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Germany has been losing population for quite some time now. Migration from Eastern Europe is not a new thing as anyone who's lived in East Germany can tell you. Despite waves of migration over the last few decades, the Germans simply aren't making enough babies.

However these figures depend on the willingness of the British voters to allow for further immigration at the same rates as now. As a lot of them have bought into the myth that "this island is full" it will be a hard sell.

A county does not have to have a massive population to be well of, in fact the opposite is often true.

With regards to this island being full bing a myth, I disagree. It may not be full in terms of actual space, but it is more than full in terms of road capacity, school capacity and other infrastructure. There is no political will or desire to build the required infrastructure to remain a first world nation if immigration continues. I'm lucky enough to work from home, but at times when I need to travel during the rush hours, the situation is at breaking point.

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Even the Express is headlining it

http://

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/450448/Booming-Britain-will-be-the-top-dog-as-rest-of-Europe-stagnates

and they're famous for their predictions - especially on the weather.

Edited by billybong

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Ah, CEBR's Doug McWingnut, the proverbial dart-throwing chimpanzee.

Here's an excerpt from a 'forecast' in 2003:

Housing market 'will rise and rise'

Independent 20 Apr 2003

House prices will have risen so much by 2020 that homeowners will be able to take a year off work on full pay funded by the equity in their property, claims a report from the Centre for Economic and Business Research.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=113304

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From the OP link:

The UK, currently sixth in the world league table, will move up a place by 2018, overtaking France. But by 2023 it will have dropped to seventh, having been displaced by India and Brazil.

The current GDP per capita for each country is about:

UK - $39,000

Brazil - $11,000

India - $1,500

and their total GDPs are about:

UK - $2.4 trillions

Brazil - $2.3 trillions

India - $1.8 trillions

It shows how little information there is in the total GDP figure in terms of individual "wealth".

Then:

A rising population, a low-tax regime and insulation from the worst of the eurozone's problems leave Britain on course to overtake Germany as Europe's biggest economy within the next two decades, according to a study released on Thursday.

Are they talking in real terms or in printers-u-like terms.

Germany GDP - about $3.4 trillions

So they must be claiming that within the next two decades the UK's total GDP will increase by about 40% relative to Germany's. Fat chance. For decades now they've claimed they've been trying to catch up with Germany and they've failed over and over again.

They said in the 70s and 80s that the UK had to have low inflation to stand a chance of catching up. Then once inflation was actually relatively low (for the UK that is) they then allowed inflation to increase again and again and now they're starting to claim that a bit more inflation is a good thing. If at first you don't succeed.................................................................................................................

Two decades - more like two centuries if ever.

Edited by billybong

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Did they predict Google or Apple's resurgence?

Nope.

US fracking perhaps?

Nope.

How about the biggy - China - its rise and effect on world trade?

Nope.

You have the the entire body economics making a t1t of itself - and it does tend to be a single, homogenous blob, all predicting the same things using the same ideas. There is very little and few dissent.

They;re basically throwing knuckle-bones and divining sheep entrails. And the mainstream believe them cos they wear a suit suit and have a tidy haircut.

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Britain To Be Europe's Top Economy By 2030

What does that exactly mean?.....top in the amount of people living against space to accommodate them, top in happiness, top in wealth and prosperity, top in spending power, top in disposable income, top in average wage?etc. ;)

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What does that exactly mean?.....top in the amount of people living against space to accommodate them, top in happiness, top in wealth and prosperity, top in spending power, top in disposable income, top in average wage?etc. ;)

Top in convincing its people that its managed decline as an economic power, which has been going on for decades now, isn't really happening and that everything is hunky dory really.

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A county does not have to have a massive population to be well of, in fact the opposite is often true.

With regards to this island being full bing a myth, I disagree. It may not be full in terms of actual space, but it is more than full in terms of road capacity, school capacity and other infrastructure. There is no political will or desire to build the required infrastructure to remain a first world nation if immigration continues. I'm lucky enough to work from home, but at times when I need to travel during the rush hours, the situation is at breaking point.

There is no political will to build the required infrastructure: very valid point and that's the true issue.

There is chronic underinvestment in roads, trains, aviation, internet infrastructure, electrical plants... the middle-class live with the myth that their living standard can remain as it is, while as little as possible is done to "disturb" them in their lovely green backyard: please NIMBY and certainly none of those pesky immigrants (who in effect subsidise their lifestyle).

A different attitude can be seen in London: Londoners understand that their city and their jobs can't be maintained as they are, without investment. In any case, Londoners certainly do not vote like England and are all the better for it.

In any other developed country, infrastructure investment just goes ahead and politicians are willing to lose votes on the matter as ultimately, the future will applaud their decision even if their popularity will suffer temporarily. In this country, any politician who makes a "tentative" decision suddenly realises through the media that a few hundred people with hay fever may be affected and these people will sneeze twice as much if this decision goes ahead, the media makes a "story" out of it (something that most journalists in other countries would be ashamed of covering), stir it up enough until the said politician, seeing that the polls have dropped 0.1%, do a "U-turn", something again that most politicians in other countries would be shot down for, for being so spineless but in this country, we applaud such aptitude at handling the media.

We have ended up with the politicians we deserve: spineless, shiny, slimey and PR experts.

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From the CEBR report summary

http:/

/www.cebr.com/reports/world-economic-league-table-report/

India overtakes Japan in 2028 to become the world’s third largest economy. Abenomics means that Japan is likely to follow a weak currency policy for the foreseeable future which means that its GDP in dollar terms gets overtaken by India earlier than we had previously expected

So Abenomics printing money won't work for Japan versus India but its UK equivalent in the form of Osborneomics is going to work for the UK versus Germany.

:lol:

Pull the other one.

Edited by billybong

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