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TheCountOfNowhere

2007 Is Back.....

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Someone I know who was spared bankruptcy by the low interest rates and was been working every hour to keep afloat since then has now been lent more money to start a small housing development in Northampton.

I was amazed when I found out. This will effectively bail him out if he manages to build/sell.

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Yep, 2007 is back with vengeance. It's because people were bailed out and did not learn anything..

Well, I look forward to the 2008/9 as last time I made rather a large amount of cash for the crash.

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Yep, 2007 is back with vengeance. It's because people were bailed out and did not learn anything..

Well, I look forward to the 2008/9 as last time I made rather a large amount of cash for the crash.

You can see it coming like an unstoppable tsunami. I think there are a lot less people buying into it this time, but buying they are.

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Maybe in London. 20% off nominal highs and 7 years of general price inflation everywhere else leaves houses overpriced but not as overpriced as back then.

even if wages had gone up 10% since 2007 in London, nominal (asking Prices ) are up 20%.

The crash in london us unavoidable....the rest of the country will be affected.

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The crash in london us unavoidable....the rest of the country will be affected.

I think that part of it may be severe.

Many of the property transactions locally are funded by some transaction in London.

It's almost a straight line from Chinese QE through to rural houses in UK selling at 10x local salaries.

Then you have the eco system that is evolving to support these City downsizers or 2nd home owners - which is replacing the previous eco system which supported local families.

If the gossip that commodity prices will rocket next year is right - we could see some rural economies decimated from high fuel prices + London property tide going out + few working families/services left in countryside

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What gets me is houses arent even cheap in china. And theyre HORRIBLE.

I didnt think anyone could beat the brits on housing idiocy, but the chinese seem to manage it.

Indeed $330,000 dollars for something that wouldn't even pass health and safety here. Meanwhile a home here is in a relatively green and pleasant land, a passport to a state pension Ponzi and Welfare scheme (while it lasts) not to mention the NHS and access to culture built up through centuries of being World number one. Not surprising the world is queuing up to live here.

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Indeed $330,000 dollars for something that wouldn't even pass health and safety here. Meanwhile a home here is in a relatively green and pleasant land, a passport to a state pension Ponzi and Welfare scheme (while it lasts) not to mention the NHS and access to culture built up through centuries of being World number one. Not surprising the world is queuing up to live here.

60-70% tax liability for the ordinary working man, no chance of climbing up the social scale, no real work, no future for your children, every scum back being allowed in the country, value of savings/work being eroded, pension again shooting up to 70 ( +), infrastructure falling apart, cost of living going mental....

Not surprising the British are queuing up to live somewhere else.

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If the gossip that commodity prices will rocket next year is right - we could see some rural economies decimated from high fuel prices + London property tide going out + few working families/services left in countryside

To my mind a Chinese crash and commodity spike is unlikely as China IS commodity demand. That plus a strengthening USD, I'd be surprised

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To my mind a Chinese crash and commodity spike is unlikely as China IS commodity demand. That plus a strengthening USD, I'd be surprised

Aren't the days of commodity prices being coupled to physical demand over? (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/us-lme-warehousing-idUSTRE76R3YZ20110729).

Whilst China may experience some financial crash it is unlikely to slump.

There are 1.25BN people who now want western utility infrastructure (plumbing, sewerage, power etc.), TVs, cars, smartphones. That GDP is locked in for decades.

We've got 2 TVs not even plugged in and a spare bathroom we don't even use.

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Aren't the days of commodity prices being coupled to physical demand over? (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/us-lme-warehousing-idUSTRE76R3YZ20110729).

Whilst China may experience some financial crash it is unlikely to slump.

There are 1.25BN people who now want western utility infrastructure (plumbing, sewerage, power etc.), TVs, cars, smartphones. That GDP is locked in for decades.

That's great. Let me know when they get the wage rises to buy those things. Beijing house prices are, IIRC, something like 20 times salary. Ain't nothing going on but the rent in China and it looks like it maybe coming to a head

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Beijing house prices are, IIRC, something like 20 times salary. Ain't nothing going on but the rent in China and it looks like it maybe coming to a head

Yes - I suspect property assets will correct - but that correction doesn't take away the 100s of millions of people who want to build and consume things like the west did since the 1800s.

I was talking to a Chinese friend who said the 20-30 age group (over 100M of them alone) are an engine that isn't going away. They want everything their parents didn't have.

China_Pop_Pyramid_2012.png

In the west there is little potential GDP - our current GDP is from selling our premium assets to Asia.

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I lived in China and have Chinese friends. Mandarins a bit rusty these days though.

They want everything their parents didn't have. I want everything my parents had. Minor problem - not getting the wages to make it happen.

On the bright side they have things their parents never had - poisoned land, polluted rivers and air quality to rival Mordor so they are catching up in that respect.

In order for our friends to get the level of living they aspire to there will need to be a major shift to a consumption based economy. Not much evidence of that happening as yet.

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The ATM machine is throwing out tenners again, says the Torygraph.

Woo hoo!!

Ho moanerz remortgage to fund Christmas spree

Homeowners have turned their dwellings into cash machines in the run-up to Christmas as remortgaging reaches record levels, according to property service company LMS.

Gross remortgage lending increased by £18m in November to £4.22bn, 24pc higher than this time last year, figures from the company show.

“Those remortgaging are each taking out an average £26,400 in extra equity, which will most likely be used to fund a festive spending spree,” said Andy Knee, chief executive of LMS.

The Government’s Help to Buy scheme is also making mortgage lending cheaper and more affordable.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) recently reported that total gross mortgage lending was £17bn in November, meaning remortgages now represent a quarter of the total market.

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I was looking at Firs Direct mortgage calculator this morning. They are offering rates around 1.6%...

This time it is different ------> Mortgage rates cannot go any lower!

When this $hit blows up there will be a lot of people in negative equity, lots of banker jobs lots in London, lots and lots of bail in/outs.

vhgmc3.png

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