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2014 House Price Predictions

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Don't think we've had one of these yet.

So, what are your predictions for the coming year for HPI. Feel free to break it down for your region, or just London, or uk excluding London or however you want to express it.

My complete guess is that we will see prices flattish say +1% for H1 2014, at which point I will finally trade up, and we will start to see slight falls thereafter, with the drops accelerating in 2015. My hope of course is for 10% month in month falls, but that seems unlikely.

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like everybody else hoping for a crash but can see more flat lining where i am just like last year and the year before and the year before that................

will have to wait for an external shock to really end the party and that could happen any time in the years ahead

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I expect the cost of borrowing to increase one way or the other, but I expect no end to forbearance.

I see no appetite for buying now amongst the young whatsoever, we have a cultural shift in that regard that I cannot see reversing. So a fundamental has certainly changed there. Those older expecting someone younger to pay for their retirement for them via the medium of getting into enormous debt for a cr4p house are certainly deluded now. So that is also a change.

A house is now a house rather than a get rich quick scheme, but a house is still prohibitively expensive. Progress is slow but attitudes are changing.

My only prediction ; A higher cost of borrowing. And a lower standard of living.

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Look at Property Bee for Lancashire and you see many houses that remain for sale after many months, in spite of prices being cut every now and then. Then look at the Halifax price index and you see a 10% YOY increase. I expect things to carry on in the same vein.

Edited by blobloblob

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Given up even hoping for a crash around here - a house 2 doors down from ours is on the market. It hasn't even reached Rightmove yet but they've had bids well in excess of the asking price and we've had people knocking on our door to "see what the neighbours are like".

So I'll go

Anywhere I'd want to live +5%

Everywhere else -3%

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There is an election coming and TPTB have shown time and time again that they will not let prices fall in the run up to that - indeed, they'll come up with ever more innovative tricks to keep prices increasing. If things were left only in TPTB's hands, then 2014 is looking unlikely for a price correction of any note. However, as said above, it's not solely in their hands, so all bets are off if an outside event of major economic significance comes along.

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Don't think we've had one of these yet.

So, what are your predictions for the coming year for HPI. Feel free to break it down for your region, or just London, or uk excluding London or however you want to express it.

My complete guess is that we will see prices flattish say +1% for H1 2014, at which point I will finally trade up, and we will start to see slight falls thereafter, with the drops accelerating in 2015. My hope of course is for 10% month in month falls, but that seems unlikely.

-2 % overhaul

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Don't think we've had one of these yet.

So, what are your predictions for the coming year for HPI. Feel free to break it down for your region, or just London, or uk excluding London or however you want to express it.

My complete guess is that we will see prices flattish say +1% for H1 2014, at which point I will finally trade up, and we will start to see slight falls thereafter, with the drops accelerating in 2015. My hope of course is for 10% month in month falls, but that seems unlikely.

-2 % overhaul

Mortgages getting harder to get.

Earning static at best.

lending multiples falling.

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I expect an overall rise of 5%. The tories aren't going to allow them to fall.

That's unless we see a black swan event which would mean all bets are off. Problems compounding in Europe could see further foreign investment leading to even higher prices. Bad economic news could drop them but I think that's unlikely in 2014. The year after, well that may be rather different.

Edited by miggy

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My guess is that we'll see all the cards played almost predictably

1. Keep housing static to small crash by keeping interest rates low

2. Start the market with Help to buy etc etc.

3. Slack planning to increase building

4. Create movement by changes such as no council tax rebate for empty properties, cut down tax benefit for primary residence by decreasing time to 18 months etc.

Next

5. stamp duty thresholds reset

6. 5% deposit mortgages back

Have election.

7. devalue sterling!

sorted...

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Crash will come out of the blue when no one on here really expects it, the sheeple will be even more distressed although I think many have sussed the sea change.

+1,

I would like to see it happen before the election...just tp see Gidiots face.

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3 to 5% increase until _may 2015

One very small interest raise end of 2014

Gordon brown turns up for work once

Clegg gets a job in Euroland by the Summer

Fracking protests revitalise peoples apathy in pockets of local politics , conservative MPs get more nervous and more publicly bolshy.

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More important than short term changes in house prices is the long term effect of house prices.

And of that I'm fairly confident...owner occupancy rates will continue to fall in 2014. In fact they'll continue to drift down towards the 50-60% level that's typical on the continent.

The social make up of Britain is reverting back to when owning your own home wasn't an almost universally realisable aspiration, but was the exclusive preserve of the better off.

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Extreme crashes and asset price hyperinflations are the new normal.

We're now deep into the third Greenspan/Bernanke bubble The other two lasted five years before they collapsed and underwent a systemic re-trace. Based on that, we've got around 12-18 months to the next depression.

chs-case-cash1.jpg

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More important than short term changes in house prices is the long term effect of house prices.

And of that I'm fairly confident...owner occupancy rates will continue to fall in 2014. In fact they'll continue to drift down towards the 50-60% level that's typical on the continent.

The social make up of Britain is reverting back to when owning your own home wasn't an almost universally realisable aspiration, but was the exclusive preserve of the better off.

This is inevitably true so long as house prices keep outstripping earnings.

Unlike the continent though our landless will be paying extremely high rents.

At some point one would imagine that the growing landless will become a political agent, and demand changes, but this could be decades. When that happens rising house prices will lose elections.

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Can anybody find last year's predictions? search is failing. Only worth it if they are aired at the end of the year.......I think I went for $1300 gold and 2% HPI and 2% CPI.....in which case I was pretty close.

This year I am going for 7% HPI.

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