spyguy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Bonds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Any reason ? they have been bouncing around the high 80`s low 90`s for a few weeks now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 (edited) UK Ten Year Gilt Nominal Par Yield has been above 3% since 6/12/13 Edited December 20, 2013 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 (edited) Music to my ears. Interest rate rises please! 06 Dec 13 3.0812 09 Dec 13 3.1028 10 Dec 13 3.0709 11 Dec 13 3.0638 12 Dec 13 3.0996 13 Dec 13 3.0957 16 Dec 13 3.0772 17 Dec 13 3.0755 18 Dec 13 3.1177 Be interesting to hear FT's views on what's led them higher. Edited December 20, 2013 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 (edited) 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS10) 2.89% Edited December 20, 2013 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 06 Dec 13 3.0812 09 Dec 13 3.1028 10 Dec 13 3.0709 11 Dec 13 3.0638 12 Dec 13 3.0996 13 Dec 13 3.0957 16 Dec 13 3.0772 17 Dec 13 3.0755 18 Dec 13 3.1177 Be interesting to hear FT's views on what's led them higher. I'm suspicious of the interpolated 10-year yield in the BoE database at present which is why I didn't highlight it in the gilts thread when it went above 3%. Note how the yield jumped 15 basis points between 5th and 6th of December. I don't recall anything happening to the UK yield curve that day that would warrant a spike like that. Taking the yields of the three closest gilts to 10 years on the 5th Dec: Treasury 2022: 2.746% Treasury 2023: 2.915% (<-- this is the current benchmark 10-year gilt) Treasury 2025: 3.049% Interpolated yield in BoE database: 2.929% (seems reasonable) And for the 6th Dec: Treasury 2022: 2.721% Treasury 2023: 2.893% Treasury 2025: 3.030% Interpolated yield in BoE database: 3.081% (WTF??) I don't really understand what happened. It looks like something broke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I'm suspicious of the interpolated 10-year yield in the BoE database at present which is why I didn't highlight it in the gilts thread when it went above 3%. Note how the yield jumped 15 basis points between 5th and 6th of December. I don't recall anything happening to the UK yield curve that day that would warrant a spike like that. Taking the yields of the three closest gilts to 10 years on the 5th Dec: Treasury 2022: 2.746% Treasury 2023: 2.915% (<-- this is the current benchmark 10-year gilt) Treasury 2025: 3.049% Interpolated yield in BoE database: 2.929% (seems reasonable) And for the 6th Dec: Treasury 2022: 2.721% Treasury 2023: 2.893% Treasury 2025: 3.030% Interpolated yield in BoE database: 3.081% (WTF??) I don't really understand what happened. It looks like something broke. The whole system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 2.99% @ 4 PM 9 basis points over the last week. 25 bp over the last month. That's quite a move for gilts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 (edited) I'm suspicious of the interpolated 10-year yield in the BoE database at present which is why I didn't highlight it in the gilts thread when it went above 3%. Note how the yield jumped 15 basis points between 5th and 6th of December. I don't recall anything happening to the UK yield curve that day that would warrant a spike like that. I don't really understand what happened. It looks like something broke. Thanks for the explanation FT.It did seem a little odd that the interpolated yield was so far out from the ten yr generic that Bloomberg quotes.Being the innocent I am,I took it for granted that the BoE wouldn't get sucha major benchmark that wrong.Live and learn. Edited December 20, 2013 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 2.99% @ 4 PM 9 basis points over the last week. 25 bp over the last month. That's quite a move for gilts. Will the PTB be concerned at this, or is volatility the new normal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Killer Bunny seems to have backed the wrong horse again. He reckoned gilts were a good buy. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=193785&st=30 I don't normally pull people up on their predictions but seeing as he is a pro I think it is reasonable to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 is this another 'great rotation'? Bond money going into stocks? Maybe they'll have to crash the stock market again soon to get the money back into bonds. All I know is there are no more free markets. All central bank decided now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Just as a matter of interest. What would the 10 year bond yield have to be before you would buy them? for me they would have to be 3.65---3.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Hovis Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Just as a matter of interest. What would the 10 year bond yield have to be before you would buy them? for me they would have to be 3.65---3.75% 7 or 8% Seriously, bond returns get slaughtered by inflation and you get taxed on them so they would have to hit those levels, so giving a potential for short term capital gains, before I'd even look at them twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 7 or 8% Seriously, bond returns get slaughtered by inflation and you get taxed on them so they would have to hit those levels, so giving a potential for short term capital gains, before I'd even look at them twice. Bonds used to be OK when you'd buy ones with a couple of years left below par and hold till maturity, folding any income into a capital gain. The UK definitely does not have 100m+ of Mrs Watanabe's, helping funding the deficit. Back to the topic, the yield just missed 3% Imagine a future where of yields at 7%, government debt of ~100% GDP Assume a (political) maximum government spend of 40% (big assume, its 53% at the mo). Eventually, that would be 25% of government spend on debt interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Bonds used to be OK when you'd buy ones with a couple of years left below par and hold till maturity, folding any income into a capital gain. The UK definitely does not have 100m+ of Mrs Watanabe's, helping funding the deficit. Back to the topic, the yield just missed 3% Imagine a future where of yields at 7%, government debt of ~100% GDP Assume a (political) maximum government spend of 40% (big assume, its 53% at the mo). Eventually, that would be 25% of government spend on debt interest. I'm sure I heard the Japanese spend 25% of the budget on interest at present rates (probably a Kyle Bass presentation) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'm sure I heard the Japanese spend 25% of the budget on interest at present rates (probably a Kyle Bass presentation) They've just drafted next year's budget and estimate spending 24.3% of the budget on debt interest in FY2014, while 43% of the budget is raised via bond sales. Of course, they also expect the economy to start growing at >2% so the numbers need to be taken with a good pinch of salt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Bonds used to be OK when you'd buy ones with a couple of years left below par and hold till maturity, folding any income into a capital gain. The UK definitely does not have 100m+ of Mrs Watanabe's, helping funding the deficit. Back to the topic, the yield just missed 3% Imagine a future where of yields at 7%, government debt of ~100% GDP Assume a (political) maximum government spend of 40% (big assume, its 53% at the mo). Eventually, that would be 25% of government spend on debt interest. BoE would buy up more long dated gilts, and just recycle int. it to the govt. as per now. Be good for pension funds, savers, annuities etc..... But let's face it, why would rates be 7%? There's no need for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 But let's face it, why would rates be 7%? There's no need for it. Really? Tell me more... Clapped out nation with a massive current account deficit, very high levels of private debt and public debt, hugely over reliant on a parasitic financial sector at the heart of which are two state owned zombie banks, sustained only by massive intervention by the central bank. Surely there is no danger of soft default via the monetisation of the debt... Or, do you mean that there is no danger of the market being allowed do discover the market discovered yield for this debt in the absence of the Fed buying £85bn $75bn a month... Or is your argument that in the absence inflation the low yields are justified? I guess it depends on exactly which price you have in mind before you can decide whether or not there is inflation. If I was trying to buy a decent house in London I might be inclined to the view that there was enough inflation to justify a 7% interest rate. It's one thing to accept that monetary policy has taken control of rates for the time being. It's another thing to think about what rate is needed, and yet another thing to consider which problem you are attempting to fix by lowering or raising rates. As to where rates should be, or need to be, we'll find out soon enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG2:IND 2 year looks highest for a year to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG2:IND 2 year looks highest for a year to me. The short end of the curve is pretty steep at present. It's not being trumpeted, but savings rates are edging up. The best one-year fixed rate hit 2% yesterday – nothing to get too excited about, but in relative terms it's noteworthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 (edited) <nope this linkfailed.> UK bond yieldson FT.com Hope the links works. Short time frame yields going up. Longer time frame too. Interesting to see the bond market pan out. The Bill vs. Mohamed spat at Pimco is only a side show. Edited March 9, 2014 by spyguy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giesahoose Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 <nope this linkfailed.> UK bond yieldson FT.com Hope the links works. Short time frame yields going up. Longer time frame too. Interesting to see the bond market pan out. The Bill vs. Mohamed spat at Pimco is only a side show. this works http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG2:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG5:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG10:IND highest in a long time, yields going up. will be interesting to see the ISA rates for next year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 this works http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG2:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG5:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG10:IND highest in a long time, yields going up. will be interesting to see the ISA rates for next year The FT chart shows yields across the different terms. Its interesting ast it hsows short dated gilts jumping, long dated (>10) jumping but 10y gilds staying around the same. A more cynical person than me wouldthink someone is pouring lots of money in to game the market. Hope the BoE charges them with market manipulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 this works http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG2:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG5:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GUKG10:IND Anyone got a link to a long term chart? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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