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ianb78

Has Irish Property Bottomed Out?

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Following over 5 years of declining prices resulting in falls of over 50%, it appears that prices are now stabilising and even rising in certain areas of Ireland.

Is this now the time to buy?

Thoughts?

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Following over 5 years of declining prices resulting in falls of over 50%, it appears that prices are now stabilising and even rising in certain areas of Ireland.

Is this now the time to buy?

Thoughts?

As an investment or as a home?

I'd say if you have a decent job and a good future there,it's time, it might get cheaper but they're clearly going to try every trick in the book to prevent it, and as we've seen in the UK the tricks can be quite effective.

As an investment I'd say no.

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Yes and No.

The ONLY reason prices are rising is because the banks havee managed to take all of the supply off of the market. There are still tens of thousands of empties out there. I can see them every day just sitting there empty.

Thear have been almost no repossessions and we have severe mortgage arrears problem where many people 20,000+ have not paid a penny for several years.

If the banks decide that they want to repossess and turn a bad loan good, then prices will fall again.

If the banks can afford to keep the defaulters and not collect mortgage payments then yes, perhaps.

Supply is tight in Dublin, but there are still thousands of empties - but probably a safe bet to hold their current values.

Anywhere else is a HUGE gamble and prices are likely to continue to fall. Here in Galway prices are still falling - you can check out the graphs and figures over at daftdrop.com

If you need a home to live in then buy, to speculate then it's a huge gamble even inside Dublin.

Dublin!=London.

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I'd say if you have a decent job and a good future there,it's time....

I had a good job and was making offers on a home for ourselves until I was laid off last week - the reality of the situation soon dawns on you, but then again you could say that about the UK (outside London).

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More than 26,000 Irish homes to be repossessed - rating agency Fitch

Donal O'Donovan – 17 December 2013

AS many as 26,000 Irish houses will be repossessed after falling into deep mortgage arrears, with the pace of seizures predicted to step up rapidly from next year.

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But 52,000 homes could see a share of their debt written off.

That's according to figures rating agency Fitch says are based on information supplied by the Irish banks. It warned that Ireland faces a decade of high debt and low growth after emerging from the bailout.

Despite signs of recovery, they warned that house prices may yet have further to fall next year before reaching an expected level of 60pc below the 2007 peak of the property bubble.

Fitch analysts made the comments in an update to investors on how it sees Ireland as we emerge from the EU/IMF bailout.

The country has made impressive strides to leave the programme, including taking the biggest wage cuts of any population in the eurozone, but now faces a decade of high debt and slow growth, the agency warned.

Fitch's London-based mortgage analyst Sanja Paic said recent price rises in Dublin were "unsustainable" in the long term because they are driven by a lack of supply that will prove temporary.

The number of homes for sale in Dublin is around 24pc below the level seen even in 2012, she said. The number of homes being built is still a fraction of the peak, she added.

One factor anticipated to put downward pressure on prices will be a sharp rise in the number of homes being repossessed, she said in a conference call with investors, analysts and the media yesterday.

SEIZED

Fitch said one in five houses where mortgages had been in arrears for three months or more was likely to be repossessed.

Despite saying repossession would be a last resort for lenders, it means as many as 26,000 properties, including buy-to-let properties and actual family homes, could be seized by the banks.

It's a far higher level than is being predicted by rivals like Moody's but the Fitch numbers are based on what Irish lenders are telling the agency, a spokesman said.

However, even with such bleak prospects, most homes with loans in arrears will not be repossessed.

Around 52,000 mortgage accounts could ultimately see some level of debt write-off, Fitch said. Around the same number will hold on to their house by repaying arrears, according to the agency.

There is evidence that a significant number of buy-to-let investors in particular are not making repayments but have the ability to, Ms Paic said.

As those people are brought back to the table by the banks, which have beefed up powers to chase defaulters, their arrears will be repaid, she said.

"A significant number of those in late-stage arrears will actually cure their loans," Ms Paic said.

On overall levels of mortgage arrears, Fitch said 2014 would be a crucial year for the banks.

Irish Independent

The comments section just about sum up what people are thinking.

50 comments

The banks and govt are doing their level best to avoid letting the market work its magic at the expense of the taxpayer and more so the would buyers ,ooooh but the market was fine when prices were going up . PLONKERS ALL

We KNOW what Fitch is saying is true. We KNOW there are much fewer than normal houses for sale. We can see the recent effects of a rare house going up for sale in certain areas. This is very unfair on people who try to buy at present at artificially jumping prices (once there are 2 bidders).

So much for Pinocchio Kenny's promises yesterday. Every time he speaks his nose gets longer. Three billion gone per year for the next twenty plus years. This is what it means. Burn the bondholders. They are private for profit businesses. If they go broke they go broke, that's business.

I'm not 100% sure but I think there is interest to be paid on the 3 billion a year payback, which brings the payments a lot higher.

'including buy-to-let properties' - buy-to-let properties are NOT family homes and I cannot understand how come that they are always included in the number of 'family homes' to be repossessed. Does it bring few more tears into readers eyes? Maybe, but it is a false information...

If prices fall further will I be able to adjust my property tax downward ?

A ratings agency makes a forecast - excuse me while reach I for the salt

But is it the same rating agency that was forecasting a soft landing back in 2007 ? Or is it the one that was giving AAA grades to subprime investments based on "what [....] lenders were telling the agency" before ? We would need to find letters beyond Z in the alphabet to rate these guys...

I'm not in the slightest bit surprised with these figures. This is what you get when you recapitalise (nationalise) defunct banks, They go after not just the big business men but the home owners who borrowed too. Sorry but that's just the way they work.

In simple terms, we voted in a government who borrowed €67bn from the IMF, they invested the money in our defunct banks and asked the citizens of Ireland to carry the costs. Then they allowed the banks to call in their loans on businessmen, close them down and put their employees to emigration or dole and they also allow the banks to repossess the homes of people who are carrying the costs of recapitalisation.

Am I missing something? yes............. the big party to celebrate exiting the bailout!!!

Are you suggesting that those families that actually pay their mortgages do not 'carry the costs of recapitalisation'? What about those taking loans for buy-to-let properties led by pure greed? These are not homes, only bad investments. Should all Irish citizens pay for their faults?

Thank you for your concise summation of the fraud that has been perpetrated on the people of Ireland.

Money was borrowed, those who can afford to need to pay it back, those who cant need to be relieved of their debts but every write down / loan not paid back is carried by the taxpayer (that's the current situation maybe not an ideal one but where we are). If we don't allow reposessions there will be no repayment of borrowed monies and it will all need to be repaid by the taxpayer. Plain as. It would be nice to hear hose who think there is a wonderful write off solution to outline any plan rather than crying for a miracle. Houses are not free. IF you cant afford it by all means walk away and start fresh

'Despite signs of recovery, 26,000 Irish houses will be repossessed' ... am I missing something ?.. can we knock this feel good factor thing on it's head please, what is the definition of 'sign of recovery', I like many certainly can't see it.

Recovery will be when emigration stops, when real jobs are created for 400,000 unemployed, when families finances are put back under their control, debt is addressed, poverty and derivation is eradicated, repossessions are stopped, tax cuts are reversed and our services are put back... they told us we were 'turning the corner' instead we were hitting a wall...spin, spin and more spin

'spin' may help the govt feel good factor, aimed at getting them re-elected and putting bread on their tables, but it will not put bread on mine or any of the 26,000 repossessed homes.. try this for an alternative headline '26,000 homes to be repossessed as families struggle for financial survival' ..the struggle go's on as a small selective few seem to be coining it and running around saying there is a recovery expecting the rest of us to jump around like excited children.

Recovery is a term used in economics, it simply means that we are no longer in recession. In practice it means that the economy is growing again; however it does not mean that we have recovered to the point where we were before. If you don't understand the actual meaning of the word, it doesn't mean that it's political spin.

The fact is that leading indicators of recovery often rise ahead of real economic recovery. For instance stock markets can recover sooner - this is because stocks are priced based on future expectations.

On the other hand unemployment often remains high even as the economy begins to recover because most employers will not hire additional staff until they are confident there is a long-term need for new personnel.

thanks for your enlightenment, but you have to remember that when a poor sod is losing his home, his children have emigrated, he has no job and no money and is told that 'Recovery' is underway it means 'jack s**t' to him...

Do not patronize people by suggesting they do not understand the actual meaning of the word.. The meaning of the word is simple, the country is back on the road to recovery, it is NOT. It may be at the bottom of a spreadsheet, but it is not on the tables of family homes around the country, and until people actually see it in their pockets patronizing jack s***t from people like you means nothing

Well you clearly don't understand the meaning of the word. (Or you insist on complaining despite the fact that what you have to say is completely ignorant)

The country is back on the road to recovery, I say this as a twenty three year old who was able to secure employment straight out of college only last year and has since been offered further opportunities.

Employers are recruiting again, unemployment is starting to decline (gradually), this will stem the flood of emigration. Business activity is also increasing and there has been real growth in GDP. People have struggled in the past, even in the good times, it's not a factor as far as recovery is concerned.

I say as a 48 yr old your vision is blurred by inexperience, you are obviously blind to the 'real' horrors that hide behind 'your recovery' or perhaps you just choose to ignore them.

The 'i'm alright jack', 'everybody should do as I do' attitude is arrogant, distasteful and disrespectful to people suffering the ravage of this recession, as it is also to people struggling with responsibility (I assume given your age you have little, correct me if I am wrong), with families, with children , with crippling debt, with loved ones who have left , the unemployed who have not got professional Quals , people stuck in poverty and people who see nothing but desperation.... Now basically there is 400 thousand unemployed and another 400 thousand who are not entitled to benefits and find themselves in limbo, so that is 800 thousand jobs in a population of 4million... where is the recover in that... if you are single welfare €180 per week is fine and I am sure those working on decent salaries are having a great time if they have no responsibility or debt... but my friend that is the exception , not the rule.

Don't paint everybody with the same privileged brush that you paint yourself with

How is the “I’m alright jack” attitude different from your own? A begrudging “I’m not alright Jack” who glorifies his own problems? And what makes you assume that I come from a position of privilege? That’s genuinely ignorant and disrespectful to the people who are struggling but coping after the recession and moving on with their lives.

I am far from privileged; I live with my mother who hasn’t worked in fifteen years because of disability. We’re exactly the sort of family that you seem to be defending. We struggled to pay bills, car loans, and a mortgage up until recently. I worked security at night to when I was in college to add to the disability allowance my mother received. People like you take away any ounce of hope because you’ve resigned to your own situation.

What does your complaining even achieve? The government’s role is to lead people and to bring them out of the recession. That’s not political spin. I secured my job initially through job’s bridge as an intern and then I was made a permanent employee.

But recovery isn’t going to hit everybody at once; you have to look at the broader picture and the reality is that there are more jobs available now for people like me (under 25s are a huge portion of those unemployed figures you’re referring to).

Quite frankly, you shouldn’t brush everybody else with the brush that you paint yourself with because quite frankly it’s a bleak and ugly colour.

Problem is the future is bleak and ugly for those who can see no way out of the recession, but having read your letter i wish you continued good luck.

Well sure the situation is difficult but that's the point here. Saying the economy is in recovery isn't a clean bill of health - if you take a medical analogy, you don't recover from an operation in a day, you get better over time and each day you can do a little more.

The idea that this is all political spin as LeitrimLad is trying to argue just isn't reality.

I might be in the minority but my point is that I'm not exceptional; the future might be bleak but what good does pessimism achieve? Of course the government is trying to lead people out of the gloom by offering a message of hope and there are some positive signs of recovery. (You simply can't argue with the facts in that regard)

Bully for you kid, get yerself a family and kids and come back to me in twenty years when you have grown up a bit...your childish rants only portray an individual who see's one part of the picture. Up to 2 years ago I worked for over 30 years non stop and I recognize the difference between 'recovery and bullsh*t'..you my friend are talking bUllsh*t

..as for 'I have give up any ounce of hope' try 40 job applications in 6 weeks without barely an answer, try €20 in my pocket last sunday with 6 kids to last the rest of the week, try exuberant domestic bills, inflated food shopping, santa...tell you what, walk into you local dole que and spout that s**t about recovery to the people scrimping and scraping from day to day and see what response you get... go in a shout, 'It's all getting better folks, because I found a Job ! ' ....now....foxtrot Oscar

I don't think you realise what jobs bridge actually involves... I was in the dole que myself there for a while if that wasn't clear enough for you. So in my experience there is definitely a real recovery.

Your own argument is equally as self centred: "I haven't got a job folks, woe is me". Unlike you I don't feel sorry for myself and insist and bringing every other person down with me.

Did you actually plan your family by the way? Even in the best of scenarios six kids is a heavy cost.

have to agree with you and this is the type of sentiment that is crucial to enable a recovery of some discription to take place. In contrast to the " other" very negative dooms day centiment , that is not healty for Mind , body , or Spirit and is toxic to all in touch with or around it . You are correct to say everyones actions past or present are responsible for the circumstances they " now" find themselves in .

The point is that it has nothing to do with luck - it's becoming easier to secure employment because the market is in recovery.

Not true you may be the exception indeed a rare accurance .

it's becoming easier to secure employment ..... holy jaysus, i give in.....

Hey if you filled out 40 job applications and didn't get any response maybe it's you that's the problem. Judging by your tone and demeanor on this forum, I can certainly imagine that being the case.

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I had a good job and was making offers on a home for ourselves until I was laid off last week - the reality of the situation soon dawns on you, but then again you could say that about the UK (outside London).

Sorry to hear that. I've been under the Sword of Damocles for some time now, it's not pleasant.

How are the prospects for more work there?

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I am way I feel quite liberated from my last job as it was boring and there are/were at least 8 of us sat around doing nothing for the last 6 months as the work is just not materializing, could be down to the NSA spying issues. Anyway the sales guys are not making the sales so there is nothing for us developers to implement.

The job prospects are quite good actually, much better than in Dover which is where we moved from as most jobs have been concentrated in London. Laid off a week ago today and have had one interview in Limerick, one Thursday in Galway and a phone interview on Friday.

Of course if I was looking in Dublin then I could most likely start a new job next week - BUT we have an aversion to large cities.

As a renter I am searching in Galway, Shannon, Bristol and Somerset. I have also seen a nice opportunity in Penryn, Cornwall.

Lots of options there.I won't be stuck without a job because I am anchored to a depreciating asset - so some good news.

I guess the point of moving here was to buy a cheap house, but hell the rent is cheaper €700pcm, no council tax (landlord pays property tax), no water charges [yet], living in the back end of nowhere we avoid bin collection [burning + recycling] and TV license. So all in all it was still worth the move.

The same problems still exist back in the UK, which is the cost of accommodation+water rates+ council tax, so I will be trying to stick around in Ireland if I can. I made a post here the other day where a recruiter contacted me offering me €35k jobs in Dorset, well Bournemouth which is about the same as you will get here as a software developer.

Average house price here £155k, property tax £200/yr, water £200/yr - average house here 4 bed 2007 semi.

Average house price Bournemouth £210k, council tax £1300/yr, water rates £1000/ry - average house Bournemouth old 3br terrace.

I just cannot fathom how living in most areas of the UK makes economic sense? I guess that is why the debts are growing as you would need to borrow just to work.

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I am way I feel quite liberated from my last job as it was boring and there are/were at least 8 of us sat around doing nothing for the last 6 months as the work is just not materializing, could be down to the NSA spying issues. Anyway the sales guys are not making the sales so there is nothing for us developers to implement.

The job prospects are quite good actually, much better than in Dover which is where we moved from as most jobs have been concentrated in London. Laid off a week ago today and have had one interview in Limerick, one Thursday in Galway and a phone interview on Friday.

Of course if I was looking in Dublin then I could most likely start a new job next week - BUT we have an aversion to large cities.

As a renter I am searching in Galway, Shannon, Bristol and Somerset. I have also seen a nice opportunity in Penryn, Cornwall.

Lots of options there.I won't be stuck without a job because I am anchored to a depreciating asset - so some good news.

I guess the point of moving here was to buy a cheap house, but hell the rent is cheaper €700pcm, no council tax (landlord pays property tax), no water charges [yet], living in the back end of nowhere we avoid bin collection [burning + recycling] and TV license. So all in all it was still worth the move.

The same problems still exist back in the UK, which is the cost of accommodation+water rates+ council tax, so I will be trying to stick around in Ireland if I can. I made a post here the other day where a recruiter contacted me offering me €35k jobs in Dorset, well Bournemouth which is about the same as you will get here as a software developer.

Average house price here £155k, property tax £200/yr, water £200/yr - average house here 4 bed 2007 semi.

Average house price Bournemouth £210k, council tax £1300/yr, water rates £1000/ry - average house Bournemouth old 3br terrace.

I just cannot fathom how living in most areas of the UK makes economic sense? I guess that is why the debts are growing as you would need to borrow just to work.

I thought the living cost differences were even greater than that.

What's it like there, atmosphere wise? It looks a bit "hicktown but nice" on the net.

Unless you're missing something about the UK I wouldn't consider coming back until after the economic disaster which must surely come, it might still be a few years away though. Problem will be to avoid being caught in the fallout, when the UK goes down, a lot of other things will go down with it due to the size of the banking sector.

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The cost difference can be much greater, but then it depends on what average is. I could buy an old 3bed bungalow here for €120k 45 mins from work. In the UK that would be £200k+ the same distance commute.

Biggest thing that pisses me off about the UK is the constant politician in your pocket and fcking around with the under 40's and poor that goes on.

In fact it's the sheer robbery from the working class and redistribution that pisses me off about the UK. Yes you have 'some' of that here, but it is nowhere as near as bad.

And if all goes to shit, just go down the pub!

It is really quite nice here and there is nowhere comparable to some of the shite holes I have lived near or by including: Margate, Dover, Folkestone, Plymouth, Bodmin, Newport, Weston-Super-Mare, Hastings (I am sure there are more) - just to name a few.

We went to the border towns expecting Texas Chainsaw massacre land , but in all fairness it was just like being back in Cornwall was in the 90's.

If you have never been to Ireland I would recommend a holiday once here instead of Haven or of the south coast of England.

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The cost difference can be much greater, but then it depends on what average is. I could buy an old 3bed bungalow here for €120k 45 mins from work. In the UK that would be £200k+ the same distance commute.

Biggest thing that pisses me off about the UK is the constant politician in your pocket and fcking around with the under 40's and poor that goes on.

In fact it's the sheer robbery from the working class and redistribution that pisses me off about the UK. Yes you have 'some' of that here, but it is nowhere as near as bad.

And if all goes to shit, just go down the pub!

It is really quite nice here and there is nowhere comparable to some of the shite holes I have lived near or by including: Margate, Dover, Folkestone, Plymouth, Bodmin, Newport, Weston-Super-Mare, Hastings (I am sure there are more) - just to name a few.

We went to the border towns expecting Texas Chainsaw massacre land , but in all fairness it was just like being back in Cornwall was in the 90's.

If you have never been to Ireland I would recommend a holiday once here instead of Haven or of the south coast of England.

You've certainly plumbed the depths of southern England! :-)

I was in Cornwall in the mid 90s, it was ok, though my ex-wife didn't like it as much as me, she wasn't really into the things you have to like down there - walking, outdoor sports, surfing.

In Ireland it's the availability of cheaper land that attracts me - the houses look mostly sh1t, all old inefficient rubbish like most of the UK that you would spend your time paying to heat. The build costs of something decent aren't out of reach to me, land is the problem.

I've been to Ireland, also in the 90s, but only a holiday - the people seemed great at that time. It was round Cork.

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