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Where Is The Pound Going

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The pound has been recovering a bit which is bitter sweet for me as I live in and work in a USD environment. Sweet as have a few pounds stashed away but bitter as if the pound gets too strong it screws up my plans longterm to my beloved homeland in the future.

Interested to hears views on sterling direction.

Edited by buyerbeware

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Looks like a bit strong at the moment, I would hold off making any transfers until it falls back a bit.

GBP is manipulated by the bankers, just look at the Olympics - anyone who visited the UK was shafted on interest rates. I suspect most of this manipulation is from inside the UK and transferring of money between the US and UK..

Rant time

Meanwhile, the UK, Europe and the US have wage DEFLATION supporting it's debts. With rising house prices being trumped by government in an attempt to hide over the cracks an give the sheeple some hope that they too will become rich and it doesn't matter that wages are falling. How GBP can gain on a fundamental level is questionable, but then again Sterling was seriously overvalued by the oligarchs and bankers back in 07 partly because they believe in the $hit they are peddling.

One swift stock market correction and GBP will be back down10 to 15% within the month.

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If anyone tells you they know - ask them to submit a recent picture of their Ferrari, latest super yacht and supermodel burd.

The end.

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Right now the US, China and Japan are printing faster than UK, so suspect the pound may rather perversely actually go up.

This is the worry now (I guess for some people it's been the worry all along) - the winner may be the person who loses most - if that makes any sense.

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If the Gbp gets any stronger we`ll soon see it at 200 Yen to the Pound. This would mean that a sushi shop worker would get 4 pounds an hour.

Quite a lot of re-balancing needs to be done.

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You mean all the stuff Goldman employees have?

A trader at a big bank should make money whichever way it goes. They're just middlemen, skimming their commission when the world trades. Volume is their friend and they skittle be pretty agnostic about which way it goes.

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A trader at a big bank should make money whichever way it goes. They're just middlemen, skimming their commission when the world trades. Volume is their friend and they skittle be pretty agnostic about which way it goes.

Indeed. I have always wandered how a stockbroker or money exchange could ever lose money. I think the only way is if they start to gamble themselves. If they just stick to taking their cut of whatever way anything moves - it must be almost impossible to lose money. Unless you have no customers of course :D

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Right now the US, China and Japan are printing faster than UK, so suspect the pound may rather perversely actually go up.

:lol:

The pound fell 0.3 percent in the week to $1.6296 at 4:54 p.m. London time yesterday, the biggest drop since the five days through Nov. 1.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-12-14/pound-falls-most-in-six-weeks-as-boe-counters-rates-speculation

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If the Gbp gets any stronger we`ll soon see it at 200 Yen to the Pound. This would mean that a sushi shop worker would get 4 pounds an hour.

Quite a lot of re-balancing needs to be done.

From your mouth to God's ears.

800yen a hour is 800yen an hour regardless of the exchange rate. Japan needs to see domestic inflation before buying power is impacted.

I'd argue that the UK will see a short-term economic boost from UK govt action but this will be short lived due to limited debt carrying capacity - the last bubble didn't really reset. That should lead to the pound continuing to strengthen in the short term as the debt runs up.

If China goes down it will be interesting to see what happens - I suspect it may lead to a strengthening of the pound as money flees China. It depends how much the banks are tied into the Chinese banking system - I suspect this is mainly a domestic Chinese thing and thus far I think the impact will mainly be felt in resource economies such as Aus, Canada etc

Edited by FaFa!

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Indeed. I have always wandered how a stockbroker or money exchange could ever lose money. I think the only way is if they start to gamble themselves. If they just stick to taking their cut of whatever way anything moves - it must be almost impossible to lose money. Unless you have no customers of course :D

In practice a little more risky as to provide quotes a back will have to hold inventory in balance sheet, so they run the market risk on that.

Also the traders want to take punts, as they'll get extra bonus for profit they make from price movements. Their bosses will be happy for them to do it too, as it would help their bonus too.

There are rules against it now, ie Volcker, but as a market maker pretty easy to get around as, as mentioned previously, you can't really do your job without holding inventory, plus you're allowed to hedge that inventory and so you can use a variety of stuff for that, whilst trying to profit from it.

Flipside is you get your punt wrong and lose money even though you work for a rigged casino.

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With recent deficit news and the US pretend tapering may be it is time for a pull back on the pound? 8% up in the last few months is quite a run.http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/20/uk-trade-deficit-share-gdp-ons

Edited by buyerbeware

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The pound has been recovering a bit which is bitter sweet for me as I live in and work in a USD environment. Sweet as have a few pounds stashed away but bitter as if the pound gets too strong it screws up my plans longterm to my beloved homeland in the future.

Same here, except that (i) I have no long term plans to return to the UK - in fact, I think it's unlikely that I ever will, and (ii) I still have around £50k in GBP savings that at some stage I need to exchange into USDs. From my admittedly amateur reading of the situation, my gut feeling is that the pound is probably going to strengthen against the dollar over the next six to eighteen months, especially as the main phase of Obamacare is about to kick in, which will necessitate colossal borrowing by Uncle Sam.

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Same here, except that (i) I have no long term plans to return to the UK - in fact, I think it's unlikely that I ever will, and (ii) I still have around £50k in GBP savings that at some stage I need to exchange into USDs. From my admittedly amateur reading of the situation, my gut feeling is that the pound is probably going to strengthen against the dollar over the next six to eighteen months, especially as the main phase of Obamacare is about to kick in, which will necessitate colossal borrowing by Uncle Sam.

What is mental is that between the AUD/USD/GBP/NZD/HKD (all currencies I use throughout the year) I've made 300USD per quarter on moving the same 10000 initial AUD value around as the currencies have bounced around - and thats just using standard bank tranfers and including the (sometimes) fees charged. If I can do it with my lack of financial knowledge, the currencies traders must be minting it. Who is losing? Currently that 10000 is 'worth' 11465 (parked in AUD right now). Once the USD/NZD/GBP falls again against the AUD I'll move it back into something else

And yes, I know I could end up with it left in a useless currency, but as they all race to the bottom I don't see a safe haven (except maybe NZD) anyway.

Anyway, my point is that it's mental that government pump policies globally mean curreny 'value' is so volatile for the average person.

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Same here, except that (i) I have no long term plans to return to the UK - in fact, I think it's unlikely that I ever will, and (ii) I still have around £50k in GBP savings that at some stage I need to exchange into USDs. From my admittedly amateur reading of the situation, my gut feeling is that the pound is probably going to strengthen against the dollar over the next six to eighteen months, especially as the main phase of Obamacare is about to kick in, which will necessitate colossal borrowing by Uncle Sam.

Meanwhile a lot do, I suppose a flat in a bearable part of Asia or something cheap in the US may soon lose its appeal as the reality of health insurance kicks in. Even Biggs was desperate to come home eventually even if it meant serving time. As we moan about our lot in the UK the rest of the world in desperate to get in.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/before-you-go/10078469/The-expat-boom-turns-into-a-boomerang-as-33pc-end-up-coming-back.html

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According to that story, 33% of expats 'ended up coming back earlier than expected', of whom 39% did so because of visa expiration (i.e. involuntarily). Or, put another way, around three quarters either found that emigration worked for them, or only returned to the UK because they were forced to.

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Meanwhile a lot do, I suppose a flat in a bearable part of Asia or something cheap in the US may soon lose its appeal as the reality of health insurance kicks in. Even Biggs was desperate to come home eventually even if it meant serving time. As we moan about our lot in the UK the rest of the world in desperate to get in.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/before-you-go/10078469/The-expat-boom-turns-into-a-boomerang-as-33pc-end-up-coming-back.html

Yes, I came back after 12 years away, returned 8 years ago.

Many can`t return as they have too many commitments (read wives etc.)

I`d say you need at least £100,000 to set yourself up?

Even now I rely on money saved abroad...or rather I`m backed up by it.....

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Same here, except that (i) I have no long term plans to return to the UK - in fact, I think it's unlikely that I ever will, and (ii) I still have around £50k in GBP savings that at some stage I need to exchange into USDs. From my admittedly amateur reading of the situation, my gut feeling is that the pound is probably going to strengthen against the dollar over the next six to eighteen months, especially as the main phase of Obamacare is about to kick in, which will necessitate colossal borrowing by Uncle Sam.

Im hoping the same with the $aussie. Its now at $1.91 to the £ which is 30% more than when I moved here. Over $2 and Im thinking about cashing in Uk property and some assets as I can buy outright in Perth - and a fairly decent 3-4 bedroom at that.

WA is awash in natural gas so think Im going to stay here :)

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Meanwhile a lot do, I suppose a flat in a bearable part of Asia or something cheap in the US may soon lose its appeal as the reality of health insurance kicks in. Even Biggs was desperate to come home eventually even if it meant serving time. As we moan about our lot in the UK the rest of the world in desperate to get in.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/before-you-go/10078469/The-expat-boom-turns-into-a-boomerang-as-33pc-end-up-coming-back.html

Yeah, when your are old decrepit and can't have fun anymore come back and through yourself on the state.

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Im hoping the same with the $aussie. Its now at $1.91 to the £ which is 30% more than when I moved here. Over $2 and Im thinking about cashing in Uk property and some assets as I can buy outright in Perth - and a fairly decent 3-4 bedroom at that.

WA is awash in natural gas so think Im going to stay here :)

Are there big spiders and other things? :unsure::unsure:

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