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Losing Your Job To A Computer

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I think this deserves a thread:

PDF (72pp) -

The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?

This methodology is used to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, and examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes.

http://www.eldis.org...nt#.UqjGjeLIcm0

Chart on p37, table of probabilities (lowest to highest) p57. Tres interessant. And it has a little history of job-destroying tech in the intro.

Scientists and engineers ok medium term. Lawyers too, but not legal assistants. High skill sales ok, but not telesales. Surprised at construction - pre-fabrication will be a game changer. And data-entry? Get thy coat. The caring professions seem generally to be the safest bet.

Overall it depends on the degree of social intelligence required for the task.

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I wont loose my job to a computer per se, but further advancements and changes in software will make it easier for less people to do more.

I'm a Draftsman amd have seen 10 people replaced by 1 bloke and a PC, abd when it comes to repeatability its that one bloke can easily replace 100. I now work in a design office with 12 other CAD jocky's, but i can see with more advanced 3D models, that 2/3 people "could" replace the whole office. Even actual skills and knowledge is being replaced with software, i have addons that do structural calc, etc then we send the calcs to an engineer who does a human check.....it saves time and cost, i can see in 5-10 years, where you wont need a actual engineer to do these checks, only in the most complicated circumstanced

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The Joey Essex's of this world are ahead of the game. No chance of his job being computerised.

He could/will be replaced next year by another similar Joey. There is no longevity in his carear choice I feel.

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I suspect that as computers become more complicated, yet more user friendly, then there will increasing demand for people who do understand them to carry out repairs/tutorials etc. but the days of the software engineer are numbered.

With the rise in complexity of the IT in motor vehicles, and now electric bikes etc. I can foresee local 'garages' specializing in fixing glitches not only in motor vehicles but any electronic thing.

Problem for graduates is that the personnel in these 'garages' will not be highly skilled, they will just plug the faulty device into a reader that will scan a cloud based diagnostic system.

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An important milestone is going to come if and when self-driving road vehicles go mainstream. I don't know how many professional drivers there are, but I'm guessing in the UK there must be hundreds of thousands. Furthermore, it's not just going to be professional drivers who feel the impact. An executive who does a lot of work-related mileage and can now do desk work while in transit is going to deliver a productivity boost such there will be fewer jobs for people in his line of work.

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I suspect that as computers become more complicated, yet more user friendly, then there will increasing demand for people who do understand them to carry out repairs/tutorials etc. but the days of the software engineer are numbered.

Can you justify the highlighted quote? (possibly by defining 'software engineer').

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I'm a software engineer, my job has just been outsourced to Bangalore.

But not to a computer? (sorry to hear that btw - I thought most companies had found that a false economy)

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I can see most secretaries losing their jobs. Why talk into a Dictaphone to have it typed up when you can talk into a PC and it types it automatically.

What century are you from?

He must think that all secretaries do is type up dictated paperwork.

Those types of secretaries have long long gone.

He clearly has not had a modern secretary work for him, nor work with others who have modern secretaries.

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An important milestone is going to come if and when self-driving road vehicles go mainstream. I don't know how many professional drivers there are, but I'm guessing in the UK there must be hundreds of thousands. Furthermore, it's not just going to be professional drivers who feel the impact. An executive who does a lot of work-related mileage and can now do desk work while in transit is going to deliver a productivity boost such there will be fewer jobs for people in his line of work.

Tech is already present, I'm not sure how we will get around the legalities. If a HGV crashes on the M4 causing lots of damage and loss of life, who is liable? The haulage company? The manufacturer? Google?

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I'm a software engineer, my job has just been outsourced to Bangalore.

Much more wage deflation to come yet.

"For example, using O∗NET data on the nature of work done in different occupations, Blinder (2009) estimates that 22 to 29 percent of US jobs are or will be offshorable in the next decade or two. " a quote from the report.

Conclusion:

"Our model predicts that most workers in transportation and logistics occu- pations, together with the bulk of office and administrative support workers, and labour in production occupations, are at risk. These findings are consistent with recent technological developments documented in the literature. More surpris- ingly, we find that a substantial share of employment in service occupations,where most US job growth has occurred over the past decades (Autor and Dorn, 2013), are highly susceptible to computerisation. Additional support for this finding is provided by the recent growth in the market for service robots (MGI, 2013) and the gradually diminishment of the comparative advantage of human labour in tasks involving mobility and dexterity (Robotics-VO, 2013)."

So much for our service based economy. Guess most of us won't be employed ...

Edited by petetong

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Tech is already present, I'm not sure how we will get around the legalities. If a HGV crashes on the M4 causing lots of damage and loss of life, who is liable? The haulage company? The manufacturer? Google?

Then there's the false assumption that all drivers do is drive rather than drop and collect; inspect, stack and redistribute goods in transit; ensure the integrity of the vehicle and act as nightwatchman where necessary.

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An important milestone is going to come if and when self-driving road vehicles go mainstream. I don't know how many professional drivers there are, but I'm guessing in the UK there must be hundreds of thousands. Furthermore, it's not just going to be professional drivers who feel the impact. An executive who does a lot of work-related mileage and can now do desk work while in transit is going to deliver a productivity boost such there will be fewer jobs for people in his line of work.

I think a few pedestrians are going to feel impacts as well!

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I can see most secretaries losing their jobs. Why talk into a Dictaphone to have it typed up when you can talk into a PC and it types it automatically.

You can't ****** a dictaphone at a travelodge on the M6 whilst away on a business meeting.

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I wont loose my job to a computer per se, but further advancements and changes in software will make it easier for less people to do more.

I'm a Draftsman amd have seen 10 people replaced by 1 bloke and a PC, abd when it comes to repeatability its that one bloke can easily replace 100. I now work in a design office with 12 other CAD jocky's, but i can see with more advanced 3D models, that 2/3 people "could" replace the whole office. Even actual skills and knowledge is being replaced with software, i have addons that do structural calc, etc then we send the calcs to an engineer who does a human check.....it saves time and cost, i can see in 5-10 years, where you wont need a actual engineer to do these checks, only in the most complicated circumstanced

A few points;

3D modellers are a dime a dozen. Draughtsmen are a dying breed, and a good detail draughtsman is worth a lot. I know of many who are easily earning over £50k, some much more on contract at £300-500/day.

There will always be a place for engineers. No (reputable) business is going to allow calculations and stress analysis scripts to leave the house without first having a professional engineer sign them off, at least not industry I work with.

And UK educated engineers are still better than most, although, I think that Asia is quickly nipping at our heels. Just look a the quality of material covered from recorded lectures originating in India for example.

Just being pedantic... a computer may help some keep their jobs... Fat thumbs and small mobile perhaps?

SGlS2uD.png

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P58 is the fun bit, where they list the probability for each occupation.

I'm coming in at 0.94 for "Accountants and auditors" which doesn't suprise me. I can seem most accountancy functions being automated fairly soon. Most of my job is either;

1. Taking reports that aren't fit for purpose and turning them into things normal people can understand

2. Taking peoples requests to do something and turning them into a format the finance system understands

The first is easily fixed with better finance systems, and the second will be automated by natural language interfaces.

Pharmacists looks low to me at 0.012, A pharmacist's just an "expert system" applying rules.

They rate Clergy at 0.0081. The idea of a robot clergyman made me laugh :)

Dietitians and Nutritionists is a funny one. They've got it down as 0.0039. How hard is it to tell someone to eat vegetables? Even if you take all that stuff seriously they can already be replaced by a book or two.

Edited by SpectrumFX

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Computers don't face housing costs. We do.

Actually you are wrong. housing computers is becoming a nightmare and an expensive one at that.

Carbon taxes on the leccy they use, fibre rates, power costs and land for building data centres isn't cheaper than housing land.

Just because you don't see the cloud does not mean there isn't a cost. The reason for moving stuff to a cloud and charging a monthly fee is entirely down to the banksters only lending on last months receipts and not future earnings. Having your app in the cloud means you charge a monthly fee so the banks lend you money to write a better app.

Just one of the switches we use requires 8 sixteen amp cables to redundantly power it up. Yep, these things draw the same power as a large furnace or pottery kiln and all they do is move the data from one computer to another. Who says heavy industry is dead?

Taken as a whole, computers create jobs they do not destroy them. Just as weaving looms created jobs and wealth before them. Before the powered loom only the rich could afford good clothes.

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