We Are In A Housing Bubble

[Biggus]

edit - someone had already said this..

Edited December 12, 2013 by Biggus

[Woot]

I am probably Josephine Bloggs as mentioned on another thread on HPC today with no way of understanding much of what is spoken about on HPC but very much knowing I NEED to be able to understand what is being spoken about. However, that said, sometimes I think my "confusion" is justified and not simply a matter of being uneducated. So what the hell does Prof James Mitchell mean when he says:

" there was a 93% probability that London is "in the grip of a house-price bubble".

Surely we do not need a Prof to tell us this do we? Of course it is great news when anyone dares to mention "house prices" as a negatie, but would it not be more like a 250% certainty that London IS already in bubble territory given that the average house price in London is now is £452,400 or 16 time the average London wage? So is Prof James offering us a prediction or simply saying in the midst of a torrential downpour that there is a 93% probability that if you do not put an umbrella up, you will get wet.

Great first post, Dweller... welcome to the board. You sound as though you know more than you appreciate. And I agree, he could just be stating the bleeding obvious, but if a credibly somebody does that loudly enough and often enough for it to slip into MSM then that is all to the good as a counter to the group think we usually read of and in managing sentiment.

[Venger]

Surely we do not need a Prof to tell us this do we? Of course it is great news when anyone dares to mention "house prices" as a negatie, but would it not be more like a 250% certainty that London IS already in bubble territory given that the average house price in London is now is £452,400 or 16 time the average London wage? So is Prof James offering us a prediction or simply saying in the midst of a torrential downpour that there is a 93% probability that if you do not put an umbrella up, you will get wet.

It's all dumbed-down, not least by the metropolitan-elite conservatives, "where genuine debate and freedom of conscience is a pseudo criminal act, within and without the Party."

House prices up 7.7% on the year, including Halifax's +1.1% of last month. Big increase in BTL mortgages too last month.

Celebrations... feel good.

Treasury officials said the higher forecasts were nothing to be alarmed about, given that house prices had historically risen much faster than inflation. Ministers believe that a controlled recovery in prices could induce a“feelgood factor”.

http://www.bowgroup.org/news/financial-times-bow-group-post-budget-analysis-bubble-burst-2008-being-slowly-re-%C2%ADinflated

And in the FT piece, link quoted in article above, of 6th December 2013.