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crash 2005

Bank Of England Mpc Minutes Published

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http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...005/mpc0511.pdf

There had been a significant upward movement in short-term market interest rate expectations

over the past month, both in the United Kingdom and internationally. Official interest rates were now

expected to rise to 4.75% or above in the United States by around the middle of 2006, and expectations

of a near-term rise in the official policy rate in the euro area had also firmed. The 0.25 percentage

point interest rate reduction formerly priced into the UK yield curve had all but disappeared, leaving

interest rate expectations broadly flat. Nonetheless, many economists in the latest Reuters poll still

expected a reduction in UK interest rates in 2006.

Edited by crash 2005

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29 .... Domestically, the markets were no longer pricing in a further reduction in interest rates as their central expectation....

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Why does it not surprise me that this thread is getting absolutely no discussion?

Can anyone truthfully see rates rising next year having read this report?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Why does it not surprise me that this thread is getting absolutely no discussion?

Can anyone truthfully see rates rising next year having read this report?

As I said in a previous thread to TTRTR it is now in the hands of the Global CBs.

The MPC are now walking on eggshells all IMHO of course.

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Guest struthitsruth

Can anyone truthfully see rates rising next year having read this report?

Yep

Caught between a rock (CBI) and a hard place (Fed rates, dollar on the rise)

They don't want to spoil anyone's Christmas but in the New Year when the party's truly over

I see rate rises enough to have moved to a 5% fix last month, and so do others.

:rolleyes:

Edited by struthitsruth

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It is all spin that is why, what the BOE say is becomming increasingly irrelevant both to businesses and people actually trying to function in the economy.

Inflation in many parts of the economy is out of control and has been for a long time. The chickens are coming home to roost.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

Why does it not surprise me that this thread is getting absolutely no discussion?

Can anyone truthfully see rates rising next year having read this report?

Most definitely. Do you seriously think anyone at the Bank of England

would hint that rates may have to rise in the New Year with Christmas

just a few weeks away? They know only too well it's all about consumer

confidence. It's pretty much the only thing keeping the economy afloat.

The way I see it, with inflation on the up, there's only one way rates are

going, and it's not down. Every economist, every bank, every retailer

realise that their only hope is to keep brainwashing Joe Bloggs that

everything is going to be fine.

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Most definitely. Do you seriously think anyone at the Bank of England

would hint that rates may have to rise in the New Year with Christmas

just a few weeks away? They know only too well it's all about consumer

confidence. It's pretty much the only thing keeping the economy afloat.

The way I see it, with inflation on the up, there's only one way rates are

going, and it's not down. Every economist, every bank, every retailer

realise that their only hope is to keep brainwashing Joe Bloggs that

everything is going to be fine.

Where in the report does it say inflation is rising?

CPI is expected by BofE to fall next year before rising to 2% target in 2 years time.

You may disagree with the BofE findings but their decisions are based on their findings not yours.

I'll accept that they are still concerned about the effects of the recent oil price increase but appear to be concluding that 2nd round inflation is not present yet in UK economy. They are also keeping a close watch on private sector pay agreements but as yet no signs of inflationary wage demands. (Bit difficult in many sectors if jobs are being cut!).

Until the public thinks that a series of rate increases are likely again sentiment for home "owners" in the housing market will remain neutral to slightly optimistic. ie not enough forced sale to dramatically effect the supply / demand equation.

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

Where in the report does it say inflation is rising?

CPI is expected by BofE to fall next year before rising to 2% target in 2 years time.

You may disagree with the BofE findings but their decisions are based on their findings not yours.

I'll accept that they are still concerned about the effects of the recent oil price increase but appear to be concluding that 2nd round inflation is not present yet in UK economy. They are also keeping a close watch on private sector pay agreements but as yet no signs of inflationary wage demands. (Bit difficult in many sectors if jobs are being cut!).

Until the public thinks that a series of rate increases are likely again sentiment for home "owners" in the housing market will remain neutral to slightly optimistic. ie not enough forced sale to dramatically effect the supply / demand equation.

The BoE conclude that second round inflation is not present yet in the UK

economy. Yet being the operative word. If you did a study on where most

people in the oil business see the price going, I think you'll find most would

say up, and with regards to when the public thinks that a series of rate

increases are likely again, sentiment for the home owners in the housing

market will remain neutral. My point exactly. All the time you can keep them

thinking rates will not be rising, when eventually they will in my opinion, keeps

panic at bay. At the end of the day, who knows?

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The BoE conclude that second round inflation is not present yet in the UK

economy. Yet being the operative word. If you did a study on where most

people in the oil business see the price going, I think you'll find most would

say up, and with regards to when the public thinks that a series of rate

increases are likely again, sentiment for the home owners in the housing

market will remain neutral. My point exactly. All the time you can keep them

thinking rates will not be rising, when eventually they will in my opinion, keeps

panic at bay. At the end of the day, who knows?

Fair enough.

Firstly I don't agree with your claim about oil price. I think it is a commonly held view that price will drift down as more supply / refining capacity comes on stream.

Secondly I think the BofE are worried enough about re-igniting the housing market to manage public expectation of rate moves very carefully. No government (and by proxy therefore BofE) will risk a house price crash, they would far prefer a gradual slide in prices. I'm not claiming government / BofE can prevent a crash BTW before anyone claims I am!

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There had been a significant upward movement in short-term market interest rate expectations

over the past month, both in the United Kingdom and internationally. Official interest rates were now

expected to rise to 4.75% or above in the United States by around the middle of 2006, and expectations

of a near-term rise in the official policy rate in the euro area had also firmed. The 0.25 percentage

point interest rate reduction formerly priced into the UK yield curve had all but disappeared, leaving

interest rate expectations broadly flat. Nonetheless, many economists in the latest Reuters poll still

expected a reduction in UK interest rates in 2006.

In other words: "buggered if we know"

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I can't really see them going up, it seems the BOE has no interest in trying to dampen the credit splurge, so it will just continue, get a bit worse, and then crash harder when the time comes to pay the bills.

The crash won't be caused by the BOE, it will be caused by the people providing mortgages - when they get scared and start wanting their money back.

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I can't really see them going up, it seems the BOE has no interest in trying to dampen the credit splurge, so it will just continue, get a bit worse, and then crash harder when the time comes to pay the bills.

The crash won't be caused by the BOE, it will be caused by the people providing mortgages - when they get scared and start wanting their money back.

They don't need to put rates up. All the major expenditures have been taken out of inflation calculations so inflation can drift willy nilly while Brown fiddles.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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