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Rics - "uk Housing Market Likely To 'surge Ahead' Next Year"

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From the Beeb

A survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), found that more surveyors expected prices to rise than at any time in the last 14 years.

A separate forecast by mortgage lenders predicted that borrowing would keep increasing in 2014.

But the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) added an "unbridled" housing boom was "unlikely."

The last time such a clear majority of surveyors expected price rises was in September 1999.

It's all so depressing.

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Even a possible jump in repos not thought likely to stop the price increases.

Buyers/borrowers been setting new peaks here for years now, set to do so in future with HTB2 ect, but never the borrowers to blame as they choose to pay ever higher insane prices. Got to keep having breakdowns for them. Your duty is to protect and lock in HPI for older VIs.

It comes as a report today predicts prices will rise by up to 44 per cent over the next seven years in a move which will lock out future generations ‘forever’.

The research predicts the average cost of a home in England will rise by £85,500 by 2020 to a record average price of £331,387.

In London, the jump will be even more extreme with prices rising by nearly £200,000 over the next seven years to reach an all-time high of nearly £650,000.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2521098/Home-repossessions-set-soar-Thousands-lose-properties-period-rock-rates-ends.html

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Can someone explain - are RICS really in the business of 'celebrating' hpi? Most of the surveyor stories I've heard recently have been largely critical off hpi for the simple reason that volumes have dropped off a cliff, taking away their bread and butter.

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Can someone explain - are RICS really in the business of 'celebrating' hpi? Most of the surveyor stories I've heard recently have been largely critical off hpi for the simple reason that volumes have dropped off a cliff, taking away their bread and butter.

RICS are just the chartered surveyors who price houses ( for estate agents ). You can give them a posh title but they are, effectively, they are part of the estate agents.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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The OBR expects house prices to rise by 5.2% in 2014, and 7.2% in 2015.

Why do they expect this? Are wages going to rise above the rate of inflation enabling people to borrow more? Is the cost of borowing going to fall enabling people to borrow more? Are lending standards going to continue to fall (subprint 10xsalary)?

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Glorious announcement on the radio here in Bristol, 2500 more affordable homes.

That is great news! Is this on the greenbelt?

I have noticed lots of planning being approved in greenbelt locations under local plans - you can thank the governments local plan scheme for this.

Once the UK has been building on the greenbelt for a few years, they won't be able to stop.

It's like printing money.....It's just to easy - so happy days ahead.

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Why do they expect this? Are wages going to rise above the rate of inflation enabling people to borrow more? Is the cost of borowing going to fall enabling people to borrow more? Are lending standards going to continue to fall (subprint 10xsalary)?

Perhaps the post men with there 3 year 9 % pay rise will buy them....I fear the post men might be seeing some job losses in 3 years time.

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Perhaps the post men with there 3 year 9 % pay rise will buy them....I fear the post men might be seeing some job losses in 3 years time.

Oh yes. They will need to justify the P/E ratio, so cost cutting and job losses will be the first thing. Secondly selling off all the property to a 3rd party for £1, and then renting it back at high rates.

2018 the post office will be bailed out, shareholders will lost all of their money. It happens each and every time.

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The greater the VI froth, the greater, and sooner, the fall out. Good.

saying that, client of mine that makes bits for houses ( handails etc) is saying there is currently a mini boom going on...I asked if he had gained new clients as a result of others competitors failing and he said no, it was current customers who were very confident about a coming spring boom.

These customers are builders of homes and some commercial builders....

So, the trade here in Essex and North/East London is by this anecdote, confident also about a sales bonanza in 2014.

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saying that, client of mine that makes bits for houses ( handails etc) is saying there is currently a mini boom going on...I asked if he had gained new clients as a result of others competitors failing and he said no, it was current customers who were very confident about a coming spring boom.

These customers are builders of homes and some commercial builders....

So, the trade here in Essex and North/East London is by this anecdote, confident also about a sales bonanza in 2014.

Were they confident in July 2007 that the boom was sustainable ?

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RICS are just the chartered surveyors who price houses ( for estate agents ). You can give them a posh title but they are, effectively, they are part of the estate agents.

Most of them are estate agents first and surveyors second.

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I'm no fan of the HPI-fest that these RICS reports are (shame we can no longer access the comments - they usually told a different story). However, as long as I've been on this site, this report has been a reasonably accurate barometer of where prices are heading in the next three to six months. Given that TPTB are going all out to create HPI in the run up to the election, today's news that price rises above wage and general inflation are expected should not come as a surprise - as depressing as that news is.

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Were they confident in July 2007 that the boom was sustainable ?

they were having a hard time 2011, better last year and this recent busyness, but the main issue in recent years has been credit control...unlike cut to the bone operators, non payments havent finished them off...

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I'm no fan of the HPI-fest that these RICS reports are (shame we can no longer access the comments - they usually told a different story). However, as long as I've been on this site, this report has been a reasonably accurate barometer of where prices are heading in the next three to six months. Given that TPTB are going all out to create HPI in the run up to the election, today's news that price rises above wage and general inflation are expected should not come as a surprise - as depressing as that news is.

and as they report and approve valuations, any trend the Body transmits to it members is going to be self reinforcing...such is the power of a professional body, and the difficulty suing when a member is following "guideline" valuation methods.

Edited by Bloo Loo

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they were having a hard time 2011, better last year and this recent busyness, but the main issue in recent years has been credit control...unlike cut to the bone operators, non payments havent finished them off...

That wasn't an answer to my question ?

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From the Beeb

As I suspected he models himself on Captain James T Kirk who was rather fond of warp speed..............'She's going as fast as I can manage Captain, I cannea promise anything'.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I cant answer it truthfully.

Next time you see them, might be worth getting their opinion on what was happening back then.

No one I know say the collapse coming in 2007, one of my mates was obsessed with BTL. Another mate's father in law was telling everyone property doubled every 10 years ( seems to have been proven wrong ) and was thoroughly depressed in 2008 when he couldn't borrow to expand his empire....they have both gone very quiet.

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