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John51

What's Likely To Happen Once The Boomers Are Gone?

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Boomers have a lot of voting power right now but it's not going to stay that way.

Will we have a situation where governments can squeeze benefits for the aged because a different demographic has the most votes?

What happens to housing? A glut of retirement properties?

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Forget housing and pensions crap.

It's the social welfare system that is going to be utterly decimated.

That is a worry.

Boomers (1945-1965) are retiring from now through to 2025-ish, taking that 80% of the nations wealth and supplanting it straight into the governments hands.

Anybody that thinks the UK can simply print their elderly and palliative care monies or steal it from the generations behind has another thing coming.

This is the crisis. Demographics.

Oldies can expect their care minimums to be increased until there is none, with 100% of the costs coming from their pockets (only fair mind).

Twin that with North Sea depletion and loss of energy security and the UK is going to be a sh1t place in less than a decade. Very sh1t indeed.

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Their demise will coincide with the realisation that the nations finances are fukked and indebted to breaking point.

The reaction of government (and the masses) will be to track down anyone with the slightest hint of wonga and tax them to death.

The ones with money will be the tween generation; the 40 to 50 year olds (now) who've seen the boomer fiction for the unsustainable mess that it is and have provided for themselves.

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Boomers (1945-1965) are retiring from now through to 2025-ish, taking that 80% of the nations wealth and supplanting it straight into the governments hands.

The bulk of the post war British baby boom generation were born after 1955 with the peak year for births being 1964. Most will reach state pension age at 66 and will retire between 2021-2031.

Even with the Grim Reaper doing his work Boomers are going to be outvoting Generation X until at least 2040 by when a lot of the latter will be pensioners as well. They can then all start fighting down the Day Centre over their OAP lunches.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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My parents are accountants are stating that they are seeing inherited houses just going straight to rentals in droves. They are in the Midlands. I am living in the Essex/Cambridgeshire border and my last two rentals have been inheritances put straight to rent, in some instances, the children are sharing rental income...

If there is no mechanism to force people to sell, I do not see the boomers dropping changing anything in terms of housing.

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My parents are accountants are stating that they are seeing inherited houses just going straight to rentals in droves. They are in the Midlands. I am living in the Essex/Cambridgeshire border and my last two rentals have been inheritances put straight to rent, in some instances, the children are sharing rental income...

If there is no mechanism to force people to sell, I do not see the boomers dropping changing anything in terms of housing.

Your're making the dumb conclusion that rental demand is infinite. Its not.

If you're renting with your own money you go for the smallest, cheapest place possible.

Spare room? No, Garden, No, Lounge? No.

Family homes of the 4 bed kind do not make good rentals.

HMOs maybe - if the parking allows it.

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My parents are accountants are stating that they are seeing inherited houses just going straight to rentals in droves. They are in the Midlands. I am living in the Essex/Cambridgeshire border and my last two rentals have been inheritances put straight to rent, in some instances, the children are sharing rental income...

If there is no mechanism to force people to sell, I do not see the boomers dropping changing anything in terms of housing.

Yup. In my block of five terraces, three are now inherited rental properties. In my favour though, the landlords are all friends of mine (they're using the income as a top up to their early retirement pensions) and they are very considerate about who they rent to. All three are let to retired single gentlewomen so luckily for me thus far peace and calm continues but not much help for people wanting to buy I'm afraid.

Edited by Solitaire

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Why else do you think Spain was invented?

It's okay in small doses, a month or two is enough for us. We've been here for six weeks and are looking forward to getting back next week.

What staggers me is that some out of work Brits manage to stretch their benefits to cover three or four holidays a year in Spain.... I kid you not!

Edited by Bruce Banner

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Your're making the dumb conclusion that rental demand is infinite. Its not.

If you're renting with your own money you go for the smallest, cheapest place possible.

Spare room? No, Garden, No, Lounge? No.

Family homes of the 4 bed kind do not make good rentals.

HMOs maybe - if the parking allows it.

Or you will see what has been happening for decades in London. Lovely old family houses split up into tiny cramped, badly converted flats.

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More rental availability reduces demand and therefore rent prices, reduced rental returns reduces yield and therefore house prices.

But yield is relative and how many people do you know that take into account opportunity cost? Additionally there is always the mentality of "not getting what it is worth" at sale and "prices will recover if I wait long enough". In the mean time rent covers outgoings, so no forced sale.

Rents are linked to salaries that is true enough, but with good jobs squeezed into ever smaller NIMBY infested geographies, maximum rent is extracted.

I would also like to point out that as rental becomes forced and not a lifestyle choice, it is not always true that people opt for the cheapest meanest place. Where I live has always had a massive impact on the quality of my life and I have always maximise my rental outgoing to obtain some my family can settle into. It is where we live after all.

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More rental availability reduces demand and therefore rent prices, reduced rental returns reduces yield and therefore house prices.

Lots of mugs happy to "buy in to the opportunity" expecting negative yields - 'cos in the long term they expect capital appreciation to make up for it.

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When the boomers are gone GDP will collapse as their won't be average joes with 20k year to spend and all day every day to spend it.

Instead there will be a 0.5% and the rest on zero-hour contracts.

Go long personal air lines and short on staples.

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When the boomers are gone GDP will collapse as their won't be average joes with 20k year to spend and all day every day to spend it.

Instead there will be a 0.5% and the rest on zero-hour contracts.

Go long personal air lines and short on staples.

Isn't this the truth of fractional reserve created money? It can die as quickly as it is magicked out of thin air.

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Lots of mugs happy to "buy in to the opportunity" expecting negative yields - 'cos in the long term they expect capital appreciation to make up for it.

Thats fine, it keeps renting cheaper than buying so you shouldn't be buying anyway

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When the Boomers start to really die-off we are going to suddenly find ourselves a minority in our own land and that means getting used to a heavy dose of being at the receiving end of identity politics. Talk to any middle-class Kenyan if you want to get the gist.

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But yield is relative and how many people do you know that take into account opportunity cost? Additionally there is always the mentality of "not getting what it is worth" at sale and "prices will recover if I wait long enough". In the mean time rent covers outgoings, so no forced sale.

Rent rarely covers outgoings since 2004. Yield is relative but the hassle of being a landlord is a constant and it becomes not worth it with too low a yield.

Rents are linked to salaries that is true enough, but with good jobs squeezed into ever smaller NIMBY infested geographies, maximum rent is extracted.

Thats just gibberish and theres little well paid work in nimby villages in the a-end of nowhere I think.

I would also like to point out that as rental becomes forced and not a lifestyle choice, it is not always true that people opt for the cheapest meanest place. Where I live has always had a massive impact on the quality of my life and I have always maximise my rental outgoing to obtain some my family can settle into. It is where we live after all.

Sure, don't know what that has to do with it though.

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When the Boomers start to really die-off we are going to suddenly find ourselves a minority in our own land and that means getting used to a heavy dose of being at the receiving end of identity politics. Talk to any middle-class Kenyan if you want to get the gist.

I think the demographic change is grossly exaggerated outside of inner city areas, the majority of immigrants most likely prefer a Western life to a genuinely Third World life (despite their homeland/cultural/religious hang ups), and London since the 18th century was always not very homogenous by the standards of the rest of the country (and London, being many towns splurged together, and having many different groups of Londoners not gelling together were contributing reasons why London since the late 17th century did not host the total political upheavals that Paris, Madrid, Barcelona, Moscow, and St. Petersburg had).

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The ones with money will be the tween generation; the 40 to 50 year olds (now) who've seen the boomer fiction for the unsustainable mess that it is and have provided for themselves.

As a 40 year-old who came to that conclusion about 15 years ago, I addressed that issue by emigrating, taking the tax on the £50k salary I earned with me, plus just under £150k in life savings (most of which I then used to buy a house outright in the US). It was a huge relief to get the confirmation that the electronic transfer had completed and that my money was now beyond the reach of the UK taxman.

I suspect that a lot of others in the 30-45 age group who have the skills and qualifications needed to earn a living in the £30-60k salary range overseas will take that option as taxes gradually increase and public services gradually erode in an attempt to deal with the national debt and the demographic problem noted above. The problem for the UK is that the people capable of earning a £30-60k salary - and paying the tax that comes with it - are leaving, and being replaced by unqualified, non-English speaking immigrants who are unlikely to make any more than the minimum wage.

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