TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 (edited) "House prices rose by 1.1% in November compared with the previous month and up 7.7% annually, the Halifax has said." "UK house prices continue to rise rapidly, says Halifax" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25255393 I can only imagine this is being generated by the FLS/HTB1 scheme pushing up new build lending. My taxes are being used to make houses less affordable for me to buy. In any other world this would be called FRAUD. Who/what will the bubble destroy this time ? Edited December 6, 2013 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The question should not be do we have a bubble or not, but: Why are house prices rising faster than CPI, RPI and wages? Has the cost of bricks, cement, insulation, windows etc. gone up more than inflation? Have less planning permissions been approved this year? Is there less housing supply this year? Are greater amounts of affordable credit available this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 (edited) The question should not be do we have a bubble or not, but: Why are house prices rising faster than CPI, RPI and wages? Has the cost of bricks, cement, insulation, windows etc. gone up more than inflation? Have less planning permissions been approved this year? Is there less housing supply this year? Are greater amounts of affordable credit available this year? Why are house prices rising faster than CPI, RPI and wages? Government money give aways, lax government backed lending and media ramping. Has the cost of bricks, cement, insulation, windows etc. gone up more than inflation? No Have less planning permissions been approved this year? Less than practically nothing? Probably not. Is there less housing supply this year? Not particularly. Are greater amounts of affordable credit available this year? Yes....all backed by the tax payers money. So...to recap....the government is taking our money off us and giving to the banks to lend to us so we can pay more for a house and of course, an every increasing amount in interest to the bankers. Sorry. Edited December 6, 2013 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InlikeFlynn Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 (edited) Not sure I believe all this. Land reg pretty flat round here ( and indeed in most places) I don't believe the Halifax index. never seen them publish their method. edit: that said volumes HAVE increased. Edited December 6, 2013 by InlikeFlynn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure I believe all this. Land reg pretty flat round here ( and indeed in most places) I don't believe the Halifax index. never seen them publish their method. edit: that said volumes HAVE increased. Take away FLS/HTB1/HTB2 where would we be ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepyHead Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 (edited) "Woohoo, British people now even more expensive to employ, thanks to rising housing costs" " In other news, more jobs to go, as low cost economies out compete Britain" Honestly, these people are too thick for words to describe. Edited December 6, 2013 by SleepyHead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursus darling Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not sure I believe all this. Land reg pretty flat round here ( and indeed in most places) I don't believe the Halifax index. never seen them publish their method. edit: that said volumes HAVE increased. so depressing for me. I'm looking further and further away from where I want to live and can still only just get myself the cheapest properties available. I'm a 30something earning 30k a year with £25k of savings. since 2004 I've been saying prices were out of control and have awaiting them to return to a "normal" price and now we get another boom. house prices didn't even cool down in price (sterling) really wish I bought in 2004 now. mortgage would be 40% paid for and the house price would have increased. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 really wish I bought in 2004 now. mortgage would be 40% paid for and the house price would have increased. Not according to the land registry it wouldn't, prices are still firmly mod 2004 levels everywhere apart from the collapsing london bubble areas. And think of some other poor sods....this house was advertised for some in 2008 for 375K...asking price 5/6 years later 299K....buying is dead money.From the Northampton thread: "3 bedroom detached house for sale£299,950 Hardingstone http://www.housepric...dpost&p=1619956 _______ "TheCount - Posted 27 January 2009 - 12:43 PM Pablopatito, that house in Hardingstone we keep an eye on has dropped in price.... !!!! TIMBER !!!!! http://www.rightmove...0%26index%3D540 27 January 2009 * Price changed: from '£359,500' to '£325,000' 28 April 2008 * Price changed: from '£375,000' to '£359,500' Still over-values, would still be better off renting it. They're now in the "chasing the market down" scenario Dont you wish you'd taken a 10 times your salary 120% mortgage and bought it last year ? This post has been edited by TheCountOfNowhere: 27 January 2009 - 12:44 PM _______ Also was for rent at £695 http://www.rightmove...y-24050435.html" Renting it for £700 a month is much better sense than buying it for £300K. Count yourself lucky, buying has mugs game since 2005. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btl_hater Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 "Woohoo, British people now even more expensive to employ, thanks to rising housing costs" " In other news, more jobs to go, as low cost economies out compete Britain" Honestly, these people are too thick for words to describe. I have never heard this mentioned once on the BBC, even though it is blindingly obvious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 I have never heard this mentioned once on the BBC, even though it is blindingly obvious. Did they mention "Help Top Buy" was in reality "Hindrance to Buy" or "Help to Banks" or "Help to Builders" to "Help to Bugga a whole generation" ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The question should not be do we have a bubble or not, but: Why are house prices rising faster than CPI, RPI and wages? Has the cost of bricks, cement, insulation, windows etc. gone up more than inflation? Have less planning permissions been approved this year? Is there less housing supply this year? Are greater amounts of affordable credit available this year? Halifax now doing 4.3 x household income mortgages Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 One of the anomalies of a three month moving average is that you get the annual rate of house price inflation ticking up even when it might be ticking down, which it is. The Novemeber 2013 rise is actually below the November 2012 rise of 1.7% and all things being equal the annual rate would fall, but their smoothing formula doesn't obey the laws of maths. The actual rise is 8.1% YOY 174910/161795 and is now converging with the three month moving average of 7.7%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is why I and many, many others will no longer vote for one of the "big Three". And the media will crow that the "youth cannot get on the ladder". This rigging is totally immoral. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terryturbojr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Even in face of HTB and FLS lending figures still crap so I find it hard to blame credit at the minute. As such I think main drivers of any upward momentum are low volumes, or an imbalance between supply and demand. Certainly seen it by me, nothing was available in summer and prices flew up with things being on market matter of days, the rise brought extra supply and prices flatlined and the low grade stuff hanging around on market now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 (edited) Even in face of HTB and FLS lending figures still crap so I find it hard to blame credit at the minute. As such I think main drivers of any upward momentum are low volumes, or an imbalance between supply and demand. Certainly seen it by me, nothing was available in summer and prices flew up with things being on market matter of days, the rise brought extra supply and prices flatlined and the low grade stuff hanging around on market now. If you ask me, it's purely the cheap money from FLS and HTB1 ( and consequently the tax payers ) being ridden hard by the builders. What we might well have is a government backed sub-prime bubble. Edited December 6, 2013 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 (edited) Not sure I believe all this. Land reg pretty flat round here ( and indeed in most places) I don't believe the Halifax index. never seen them publish their method. edit: that said volumes HAVE increased. I agree still not seeing any discernible increase in the East Midlands, flat as a pancake. However, from previous cycles, catch up sometimes comes in the blink of an eye. Where as London does things steadily like a long distance runner, the experience of 1988 and 2001-3 was done Usain Bolt style in the provinces; making London's growth at the same time look like a stroll in the park. I'm too much of a Bear to expect this cycle to play out the same way though, especially as we are starting from a higher level of prices. Edited December 6, 2013 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terryturbojr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If you ask me, it's purely the cheap money from FLS and HTB1 ( and consequently the tax payers ) being ridden hard by the builders. What we might well have is a government backed sub-prime bubble. I'm not denying they've both certainly improved credit conditions, but overall lending figures are still at levels i think one would normally associate with flat or falliing prices, but 8% up in a year. Even with these measures we're talking 60k approvals now, when we were at near 80k in 1993 rising steadily to 120k in 2004, dipping to 70k in 2005 before hitting 120k again in 2007. That's why I think you have to look elsewhere too. I guess it's a multitude of things really, so aforementioned easing of credit, an imbalance been supply and demand and, so far not mentioned in this thread, big support from low rates so removing any volume of forced sellers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 (edited) To the 50+ guests reading this topic: Sign up and contribute to this forum! What are you prepared to pay for a house? How much can you save? Edited December 6, 2013 by Eddie_George Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 so depressing for me. I'm looking further and further away from where I want to live and can still only just get myself the cheapest properties available. I'm a 30something earning 30k a year with £25k of savings. since 2004 I've been saying prices were out of control and have awaiting them to return to a "normal" price and now we get another boom. house prices didn't even cool down in price (sterling) really wish I bought in 2004 now. mortgage would be 40% paid for and the house price would have increased. Volumes are way off the original bubble, this is a bubble bursting with spikes in the stats IMO. People wont sell for less until they are forced to, Osbourne`s CGT changes are one little push, we need rates to start moving up for the rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quicken Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Halifax now doing 4.3 x claimed household income mortgages April 2014 before MMR income verification becomes mandatory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthamptonBear Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 "Woohoo, British people now even more expensive to employ, thanks to rising housing costs" " In other news, more jobs to go, as low cost economies out compete Britain" Honestly, these people are too thick for words to describe. Why don't people understand this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Even in face of HTB and FLS lending figures still crap so I find it hard to blame credit at the minute. As such I think main drivers of any upward momentum are low volumes, or an imbalance between supply and demand. Certainly seen it by me, nothing was available in summer and prices flew up with things being on market matter of days, the rise brought extra supply and prices flatlined and the low grade stuff hanging around on market now. Low volumes because prices are approaching peak 2007, SVR rates are at or near a 5-year high, and real wages are back where they were in 2001! UK houses are simply unaffordable. Only those with cash, most likely extracted from the Brown Ponzi, are in a position to buy. Naturally, amongst that number the Bank of Dumb and Mad unhelpfully assisting their offspring to a lifetime of debt servitude and soon-to-be negative equity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Why don't people understand this? Should give the trade deficit a significant boost too, as sterling helps make imports more competitive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 real wages are back where they were in 2001! I wish real wages were back at 2001 levels, if they were I'd be able to buy a house. In reality they are much, much lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cool_hand Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The media parade this out like it's quite normal. Where the the hell is it going to to end? Can it really defy gravity forever? What other props will they have if the market begins to turn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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