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TheCountOfNowhere

We Have A Housing Bubble...halifax Up 1.1 Mom 7.7 Yoy

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"House prices rose by 1.1% in November compared with the previous month and up 7.7% annually, the Halifax has said."

"UK house prices continue to rise rapidly, says Halifax"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25255393

I can only imagine this is being generated by the FLS/HTB1 scheme pushing up new build lending.

My taxes are being used to make houses less affordable for me to buy.

In any other world this would be called FRAUD.

Who/what will the bubble destroy this time ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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The question should not be do we have a bubble or not, but:

Why are house prices rising faster than CPI, RPI and wages?

Has the cost of bricks, cement, insulation, windows etc. gone up more than inflation?

Have less planning permissions been approved this year?

Is there less housing supply this year?

Are greater amounts of affordable credit available this year?

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The question should not be do we have a bubble or not, but:

Why are house prices rising faster than CPI, RPI and wages?

Has the cost of bricks, cement, insulation, windows etc. gone up more than inflation?

Have less planning permissions been approved this year?

Is there less housing supply this year?

Are greater amounts of affordable credit available this year?

Why are house prices rising faster than CPI, RPI and wages? Government money give aways, lax government backed lending and media ramping.

Has the cost of bricks, cement, insulation, windows etc. gone up more than inflation? No

Have less planning permissions been approved this year? Less than practically nothing? Probably not.

Is there less housing supply this year? Not particularly.

Are greater amounts of affordable credit available this year? Yes....all backed by the tax payers money.

So...to recap....the government is taking our money off us and giving to the banks to lend to us so we can pay more for a house and of course, an every increasing amount in interest to the bankers.

Sorry.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Not sure I believe all this. Land reg pretty flat round here ( and indeed in most places)

I don't believe the Halifax index. never seen them publish their method.

edit: that said volumes HAVE increased.

Edited by InlikeFlynn

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Not sure I believe all this. Land reg pretty flat round here ( and indeed in most places)

I don't believe the Halifax index. never seen them publish their method.

edit: that said volumes HAVE increased.

Take away FLS/HTB1/HTB2 where would we be ?

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"Woohoo, British people now even more expensive to employ, thanks to rising housing costs"

" In other news, more jobs to go, as low cost economies out compete Britain"

Honestly, these people are too thick for words to describe.mad.gif

Edited by SleepyHead

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Not sure I believe all this. Land reg pretty flat round here ( and indeed in most places)

I don't believe the Halifax index. never seen them publish their method.

edit: that said volumes HAVE increased.

so depressing for me. I'm looking further and further away from where I want to live and can still only just get myself the cheapest properties available.

I'm a 30something earning 30k a year with £25k of savings. since 2004 I've been saying prices were out of control and have awaiting them to return to a "normal" price and now we get another boom. house prices didn't even cool down in price (sterling)

really wish I bought in 2004 now. mortgage would be 40% paid for and the house price would have increased.

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really wish I bought in 2004 now. mortgage would be 40% paid for and the house price would have increased.

Not according to the land registry it wouldn't, prices are still firmly mod 2004 levels everywhere apart from the collapsing london bubble areas.

And think of some other poor sods....this house was advertised for some in 2008 for 375K...asking price 5/6 years later 299K....buying is dead money.From the Northampton thread:

"3 bedroom detached house for sale£299,950

Hardingstone

http://www.housepric...dpost&p=1619956

_______

"TheCount - Posted 27 January 2009 - 12:43 PM

Pablopatito, that house in Hardingstone we keep an eye on has dropped in price....

!!!! TIMBER !!!!!

http://www.rightmove...0%26index%3D540

27 January 2009

* Price changed: from '£359,500' to '£325,000'

28 April 2008

* Price changed: from '£375,000' to '£359,500'

Still over-values, would still be better off renting it.

They're now in the "chasing the market down" scenario

Dont you wish you'd taken a 10 times your salary 120% mortgage and bought it last year ?

This post has been edited by TheCountOfNowhere: 27 January 2009 - 12:44 PM

_______

Also was for rent at £695

http://www.rightmove...y-24050435.html"

Renting it for £700 a month is much better sense than buying it for £300K.

Count yourself lucky, buying has mugs game since 2005.

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"Woohoo, British people now even more expensive to employ, thanks to rising housing costs"

" In other news, more jobs to go, as low cost economies out compete Britain"

Honestly, these people are too thick for words to describe.mad.gif

I have never heard this mentioned once on the BBC, even though it is blindingly obvious.

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I have never heard this mentioned once on the BBC, even though it is blindingly obvious.

Did they mention "Help Top Buy" was in reality "Hindrance to Buy" or "Help to Banks" or "Help to Builders" to "Help to Bugga a whole generation" ?

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The question should not be do we have a bubble or not, but:

Why are house prices rising faster than CPI, RPI and wages?

Has the cost of bricks, cement, insulation, windows etc. gone up more than inflation?

Have less planning permissions been approved this year?

Is there less housing supply this year?

Are greater amounts of affordable credit available this year?

Halifax now doing 4.3 x household income mortgages

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One of the anomalies of a three month moving average is that you get the annual rate of house price inflation ticking up even when it might be ticking down, which it is. The Novemeber 2013 rise is actually below the November 2012 rise of 1.7% and all things being equal the annual rate would fall, but their smoothing formula doesn't obey the laws of maths.

The actual rise is 8.1% YOY 174910/161795 and is now converging with the three month moving average of 7.7%.

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Even in face of HTB and FLS lending figures still crap so I find it hard to blame credit at the minute.

As such I think main drivers of any upward momentum are low volumes, or an imbalance between supply and demand. Certainly seen it by me, nothing was available in summer and prices flew up with things being on market matter of days, the rise brought extra supply and prices flatlined and the low grade stuff hanging around on market now.

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Even in face of HTB and FLS lending figures still crap so I find it hard to blame credit at the minute.

As such I think main drivers of any upward momentum are low volumes, or an imbalance between supply and demand. Certainly seen it by me, nothing was available in summer and prices flew up with things being on market matter of days, the rise brought extra supply and prices flatlined and the low grade stuff hanging around on market now.

If you ask me, it's purely the cheap money from FLS and HTB1 ( and consequently the tax payers ) being ridden hard by the builders.

What we might well have is a government backed sub-prime bubble.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Not sure I believe all this. Land reg pretty flat round here ( and indeed in most places)

I don't believe the Halifax index. never seen them publish their method.

edit: that said volumes HAVE increased.

I agree still not seeing any discernible increase in the East Midlands, flat as a pancake. However, from previous cycles, catch up sometimes comes in the blink of an eye.

Where as London does things steadily like a long distance runner, the experience of 1988 and 2001-3 was done Usain Bolt style in the provinces; making London's growth at the same time look like a stroll in the park. I'm too much of a Bear to expect this cycle to play out the same way though, especially as we are starting from a higher level of prices.

Edited by crashmonitor

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If you ask me, it's purely the cheap money from FLS and HTB1 ( and consequently the tax payers ) being ridden hard by the builders.

What we might well have is a government backed sub-prime bubble.

I'm not denying they've both certainly improved credit conditions, but overall lending figures are still at levels i think one would normally associate with flat or falliing prices, but 8% up in a year. Even with these measures we're talking 60k approvals now, when we were at near 80k in 1993 rising steadily to 120k in 2004, dipping to 70k in 2005 before hitting 120k again in 2007. That's why I think you have to look elsewhere too.

I guess it's a multitude of things really, so aforementioned easing of credit, an imbalance been supply and demand and, so far not mentioned in this thread, big support from low rates so removing any volume of forced sellers.

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To the 50+ guests reading this topic:

Sign up and contribute to this forum! :)

What are you prepared to pay for a house?

How much can you save?

Edited by Eddie_George

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so depressing for me. I'm looking further and further away from where I want to live and can still only just get myself the cheapest properties available.

I'm a 30something earning 30k a year with £25k of savings. since 2004 I've been saying prices were out of control and have awaiting them to return to a "normal" price and now we get another boom. house prices didn't even cool down in price (sterling)

really wish I bought in 2004 now. mortgage would be 40% paid for and the house price would have increased.

Volumes are way off the original bubble, this is a bubble bursting with spikes in the stats IMO. People wont sell for less until they are forced to, Osbourne`s CGT changes are one little push, we need rates to start moving up for the rest.

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"Woohoo, British people now even more expensive to employ, thanks to rising housing costs"

" In other news, more jobs to go, as low cost economies out compete Britain"

Honestly, these people are too thick for words to describe.mad.gif

Why don't people understand this?

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Even in face of HTB and FLS lending figures still crap so I find it hard to blame credit at the minute.

As such I think main drivers of any upward momentum are low volumes, or an imbalance between supply and demand. Certainly seen it by me, nothing was available in summer and prices flew up with things being on market matter of days, the rise brought extra supply and prices flatlined and the low grade stuff hanging around on market now.

Low volumes because prices are approaching peak 2007, SVR rates are at or near a 5-year high, and real wages are back where they were in 2001!

UK houses are simply unaffordable. Only those with cash, most likely extracted from the Brown Ponzi, are in a position to buy. Naturally, amongst that number the Bank of Dumb and Mad unhelpfully assisting their offspring to a lifetime of debt servitude and soon-to-be negative equity.

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Why don't people understand this?

Should give the trade deficit a significant boost too, as sterling helps make imports more competitive.

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real wages are back where they were in 2001!

I wish real wages were back at 2001 levels, if they were I'd be able to buy a house. In reality they are much, much lower.

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The media parade this out like it's quite normal.

Where the the hell is it going to to end? Can it really defy gravity forever?

What other props will they have if the market begins to turn?

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