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The Developers Have Won.

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At least in Yate :)

The Lib Dems, MP Steve Webb, have opposed all new houses going back to the 1980s. Their local party rag doesn't seem to allow for liberals who might want more houses, the party line here is NIMBY all the way.

But the recent fight for 3000 new houses has been won by the developers. And more applications have already gone in.

Interestingly, the rag complains that the law bans any councillor who has expressed a view on an application from voting. So all the lacal Yate Town councillors who were also South Glos councillors couldn't vote (against).

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Watching from a distance and adding the weekly NIBMY of the week to the front page, I am amazed how may planning applications have been approved in the past 12 months.

There must be 100,000's of approved planning permissions now, but where are the houses?

We have gotten to a point where the adverage joe cannot afford a house to 2013 build standards, with local council fees and charges. That's why help-to-sell-1 as introduced for, but in reality taking on a high debt to pay for something is only ever going to work if people expect to earn more in the nearish future.

I would take on debt myself if I thought that wages would grow at 4%/5% a year for the next decade - who wouldn't.

While wages are not growing, it's very difficult to push debt onto those workers. The only reason it worked last time 2000-2008 is because there was a speculative bubble wich obscured the picture of static/falling wages. Now that is laid bare who the feck is going to take on non speculative debt?

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At least in Yate :)

The Lib Dems, MP Steve Webb, have opposed all new houses going back to the 1980s. Their local party rag doesn't seem to allow for liberals who might want more houses, the party line here is NIMBY all the way.

But the recent fight for 3000 new houses has been won by the developers. And more applications have already gone in.

Interestingly, the rag complains that the law bans any councillor who has expressed a view on an application from voting. So all the lacal Yate Town councillors who were also South Glos councillors couldn't vote (against).

Well the cllrs are idiots. It's one of the fundamentals of the quasi-judicial process that planning is; you base your decision on the evidence and if you come into the meeting having declared your position then you have pre-judged the matter ahead of the evidence and must be excluded from voting.

Signed - former planning cttee chairman.

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Back before the boom Ireland had housing problems of a similar nature to the UK.

You can read something about it here: http://www.chekov.org/articles/irelands-housing-crisis

Context:

In the second half of the 1990s, Ireland saw the start of a property boom that continued until 2007, when it collapsed in spectacular fashion leaving the economy in a spiraling depression where it remains today. During the late 1990s, there was a great shortage of apartments in Dublin, leading to big rent increases. This article was a critique of the state's private-investor-led housing strategy.

Housing is one of people's most basic needs. Yet it is a need that the 26 county state has consistently failed to supply to a significant number of its people. It seems that the Irish housing crisis is permanent, becoming more severe from time to time, but never disappearing.

To get to the point, the UK currently has the boom of approved housing applications, all it's missing is credit from private mugs investors to buy into it causing the mother of all housing booms.

If a recovery is staged before the next leg of the depression sets in I think the UK could go the Irish route of massive oversupply in the next 10 years of course it will lead to bankruptcy.

Like I say the fundamentals are in place

  • Shortage of supply
  • High rents
  • 100,000s of thousands of planning permissions granted
  • Media propaganda

All that is missing is the investor mortgages where no repayment vehicle is required to get the loan. the way things are going with 95% govermnet backed mortgages, we can only be a year or two from the easy credit to anyone, get rich quick economy.

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Watching from a distance and adding the weekly NIBMY of the week to the front page, I am amazed how may planning applications have been approved in the past 12 months.

There must be 100,000's of approved planning permissions now, but where are the houses?

Landbanks in some cases, land ownership issues in others.

Round here (high house price area) we have places that were designated for development in the 80s that are still unbuilt. Barking.

These weren't planning permissions as such - but inclusions in the local plan (as it was then - local development framework as it's known today) as residential etc. Councils are supposed to take "deliverability" into account when making strategic planning decisions so this situation *shouldn't* arise so often any more. However, there's nothing to prevent actual landbanking or just very, very slow development.

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Quite a few houses going up around Filton airfield, loads of very small unaffordable homes.

Loads going up around me in the South West. I'd sooner continue to rent than buy any of them. All overpriced, all small 2/3 bed houses masquerading as 4/5 bed homes on small plots that overlook each other, and all flimsy, poor construction. They would be better not built IMO. But nevertheless, all sold with HtB, many before completion.

Edited by LiveinHope

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Loads going up around me in the South West. I'd sooner continue to rent than buy any of them. All overpriced, all small 2/3 bed houses masquerading as 4/5 bed homes on small plots that overlook each other, and all flimsy, poor construction. They would be better not built IMO. But nevertheless, all sold with HtB, many before completion.

its the 3 story ones 5 bed detached that get me ....just enough room to walk alongside , a garage you cant get a car in and a 2nd floor living room about the size of a 3 bed-roomed 70's houses one ....yours for £300k plus ...wood frame single skin , walk past the house and you can hear the owners morning dump and splash if your timings right ......

My biggest problem with modern housing is the lack of sound proofing , not the size .

Approx 695 going up not far from me .... first 95 start early next year

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Quite a few houses going up around Filton airfield, loads of very small unaffordable homes.

Perhaps the village of Filton may someday return.

In the 1970's I lived on Filton airfield for a couple of months.

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its the 3 story ones 5 bed detached that get me ....just enough room to walk alongside , a garage you cant get a car in and a 2nd floor living room about the size of a 3 bed-roomed 70's houses one ....yours for £300k plus ...wood frame single skin , walk past the house and you can hear the owners morning dump and splash if your timings right ......

My biggest problem with modern housing is the lack of sound proofing , not the size .

Approx 695 going up not far from me .... first 95 start early next year

The new build Taylor Wimpey 5 bed house near me can sleep 9 yet has a living room just 16' x 11', which equates to just 4.4 sq foot per person at capacity. It has no attic as that is 2 of the bedrooms. It has 5 sets of bathroom porcelain - 3 ensuite, a bathroom and a wc room. - complete madness. The outside space at the back of the house is equivalent to the living room and the only separation between the front door and the road is the pavement. A snip at £420k + £200.00 extra per bedroom if you want to be that little bit special and have down-lighters instead of pendant lights :P

The token, 'affordable' 2-bed terraced properties on the same new build estate retail for £250k - the gross average salary for the county is £22.5k, so just a little over 10x average salary.

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Watching from a distance and adding the weekly NIBMY of the week to the front page, I am amazed how may planning applications have been approved in the past 12 months.

There must be 100,000's of approved planning permissions now, but where are the houses?

We have gotten to a point where the adverage joe cannot afford a house to 2013 build standards, with local council fees and charges. That's why help-to-sell-1 as introduced for, but in reality taking on a high debt to pay for something is only ever going to work if people expect to earn more in the nearish future.

I would take on debt myself if I thought that wages would grow at 4%/5% a year for the next decade - who wouldn't.

While wages are not growing, it's very difficult to push debt onto those workers. The only reason it worked last time 2000-2008 is because there was a speculative bubble wich obscured the picture of static/falling wages. Now that is laid bare who the feck is going to take on non speculative debt?

As an anecdote I have a friend who works in the building trade up in Scotland. He's now working 7 days a week and has been for the last two months or so because of the sheer number of new houses being built (at least in his area).

It could be that it just takes time particularly if there's a shortage of trained workers (many may have left the trade after the 2008-2012 building lul).

Edited by alexw

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its the 3 story ones 5 bed detached that get me ....just enough room to walk alongside , a garage you cant get a car in and a 2nd floor living room about the size of a 3 bed-roomed 70's houses one ....yours for £300k plus ...wood frame single skin , walk past the house and you can hear the owners morning dump and splash if your timings right ......

My biggest problem with modern housing is the lack of sound proofing , not the size .

Approx 695 going up not far from me .... first 95 start early next year

Indeed. Why not buy a £150k 60s/70s bungalow, chalet it, extend it, and you'll still have more gardens and parking than a newbuild 5bed 3story effort and saved yourself 100 grand in the process.

Its about 1980 homes and plot sizes seemed to go from reasonable to silly. The weeny cul de sacs with no footpaths and only space to reverse out were born. Houses contorted onto odd spaces rather than facing the street and another house directly opposite. Front gardens the preserve of high end developments. No room to extend.

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As an anecdote I have a friend who works in the building trade up in Scotland. He's now working 7 days a week and has been for the last two months or so because of the sheer number of new houses being built (at least in his area).

It could be that it just takes time particularly if there's a shortage of trained workers (many may have left the trade after the 2008-2012 building lul).

There's always going to be a time lag from approval to construction, the developers need to arrange finance and there's obviously a limit to the rate at which houses can be built.

Since the changes to the planning regime were forced through earlier this year we probably won't see any effect until late next year.

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Lots of houses going up in my little corner of England - three out of four available sites on my stroll to work are being developed.

Edited by rantnrave

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There's always going to be a time lag from approval to construction, the developers need to arrange finance and there's obviously a limit to the rate at which houses can be built.

Since the changes to the planning regime were forced through earlier this year we probably won't see any effect until late next year.

I think that's spot on. Looking back at places I know in the UK there's several huge developments finally kicking off now that I know were stalled for years before the planning changes. The number of houses in the market town in North Yorkshire where my parents live is going to almost double as a result. That compares with no more than 50% growth over the previous 40 years.

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In the third quarter of 2013 there were 44,251 permissions on 826 sites, which is up 19 per cent on the 37,053 granted the previous quarter and is the highest quarterly tally since 2007.

The planning figures are the latest positive indicators to emerge for the sector. Last week official Government statistics showed the number of private sector new homes started in England in the third quarter was up 29 per cent year-on-year to the highest level since the first quarter of 2008.

While the National House Building Council, the largest new home warranty provider, said registrations of new homes in the third quarter were up 19 per cent on last year.

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