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Researcher2000

Why Are You Guys Still Talking About A Hpc?

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No, it's an honest question, and a valid one.

For the last 2 years my team and I have been researching the global housing market with a particular focus on the UK (for funding reasons - economic research has to sadly be paid for somehow!).

The research part of the project is now over and so after two years of lurking on HPC and other sites (great blog by the way) it's time for me to go on home.

During that time a lot has happened; when we started no one thought about bubbles! For a while, it has been touch and go for property but now it appears we are turning a corner and the crash feared by a few is not going to materialise. Our research also supported this finding 6 months ago when we submitted the first model for scrutiny.

So why are you (if you are) still a bear? You had a point 1 year ago but now it is clear the evidence does not support this point of view?

I don't honestly think it's habit as there are a lot of intelligent people on this site.

So is it that you enjoy being contrarians?

Anyway, many thanks to the author of this site (Gavin's the handle isn't it?) and thanks for filling my last two years with what has been, on the whole, an intelligent and well argued debate. I sincerely hope that you get what you want and a crash occurs, but sadly IMHO you are whistling in the dark.

If anyone has any interest in our findings let me know as we may be submitting the results for publication in the New Year if we can get the permission of the consortium.

Good luck B)

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No, it's an honest question, and a valid one.

For the last 2 years my team and I have been researching the global housing market with a particular focus on the UK (for funding reasons - economic research has to sadly be paid for somehow!).

The research part of the project is now over and so after two years of lurking on HPC and other sites (great blog by the way) it's time for me to go on home.

During that time a lot has happened; when we started no one thought about bubbles! For a while, it has been touch and go for property but now it appears we are turning a corner and the crash feared by a few is not going to materialise. Our research also supported this finding 6 months ago when we submitted the first model for scrutiny.

So why are you (if you are) still a bear? You had a point 1 year ago but now it is clear the evidence does not support this point of view?

I don't honestly think it's habit as there are a lot of intelligent people on this site.

So is it that you enjoy being contrarians?

Anyway, many thanks to the author of this site (Gavin's the handle isn't it?) and thanks for filling my last two years with what has been, on the whole, an intelligent and well argued debate. I sincerely hope that you get what you want and a crash occurs, but sadly IMHO you are whistling in the dark.

If anyone has any interest in our findings let me know as we may be submitting the results for publication in the New Year if we can get the permission of the consortium.

Good luck B)

Maybe you could contribute, and publish your research here?

Anyhow, if you have researched properly, you should know that there is still along way to go. You should know a crash takes years, and you know what happened last time - it took two years from peak of the last bubble before it was obvious the economy had run out of steam (1988 - 1990); and then took another 5 years to hit bottom!

It's far too early to say a 'soft landing has been achieved' (as some spokesman would like to say).

If stagnation or small price falls/rises is still here by end of 2006, i'll eat me hat!

Oh, and welcome to HPC (although I expect your first post to be your last! Awooga anyone?)

Edited by Jason

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Maybe you could contribute, and publish your research here?

Anyhow, if you have researched properly, you should know that there is still along way to go. You should know a crash takes years, and you know what happened last time - it took two years from peak of the last bubble before it was obvious the economy had run out of steam (1988 - 1990); and then took another 5 years to hit bottom!

It's far too early to say a 'soft landing has been achieved' (as some spokesman would like to say).

If stagnation or small price falls/rises is still here by end of 2006, i'll eat me hat!

Oh, and welcome to HPC (although I expect your first post to be your last! Awooga anyone?)

Well said.

Indeed, things are just getting going. Lending is starting to be tightened, the economy is starting to tank and there is a lot of uncertainty about the future direction of interest rates.

Way too early to conclude a crash is off, things are slowly starting to fall into place for it to happen.

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Maybe you could contribute, and publish your research here?

Possibly but it would be far easier and cheaper for HPC to place a link to such a large the document in the blog! Saying that, the exec summary might fit into a post or two, but not much use to serious researchers as it is a summary.

Anyhow, if you have researched properly, you should know that there is still along way to go. You should know a crash takes years, and you know what happened last time - it took two years from peak of the last bubble before it was obvious the economy had run out of steam (1988 - 1990); and then took another 5 years to hit bottom!

And you'd know that the idea of having models is to predict a trend! If we had a crash then 5 years would be about right, but as I said before IMO you are whistling in the dark. If you are so convinced of a crash perhaps you'd like to explain why what should traditionally be a quiet time of year for property is turning into one of the busiest since last year? I suppose you could trot out the 'flight to quality' argument, but that has so many flaws as to be almost invalid. Not least of which is the fact that the adjusted volatility index should have started to rise if this was the case, not fall! Or maybe you'd fall back on the 'V.I's are hiding the truth' which would be sad as it is total paranoia. Maybe if only a few were showing rises in their indexes you could argue that point of view, but when nearly ALL are showing rises MOM??!! The VI spin argument really does start to fall apart at that point!

Sorry, it's not personal, but you are not exactly dealing with an 'interested amateur' in this area. :rolleyes:

Edited by Researcher2000

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I personally do not think it will take the 5 or 6 years that the last HP crash took to reach bottom. I think it will take about 18 months this time.

I believe this for these factors:

1. The bubble is not just a UK one. It is global and we will be affected by crashes in other countries.

2. The British will 'identify' with crashes in English speaking places such as the US, Oz, NZ.

3. 24 Hour News - they have to fill their time with something and I have no doubt that doom and gloom of HPs crashing will be on 24 hours a day eventually. You won't be able to 'switch it off'.

4. The Internet - sites like this, chat rooms, forums, etc, will speed the collapse.

5. The general global economic condition. Dire.

6. Ditto the above re the UK. Not good.

7. The HP crash will mirror the dot.con crash.

8. The enormous price increases will 'flip' and become enormous price falls rapidly.

9. The BTL market - I am convinced that a small but significant number of BTLers drove up the market.

10. IRs are on the way up globally. The UK cannot stand alone on this.

11. Sadly, sometime in the next 18 months I think we will see some terrible terrorist event.

12. A clever boy - I would not be surprised if there is some Soros like guy out there currently who is probably dreaming up a cuning plan to make a killing in the above conditions. The falling Pound, apparently being propped up by Euro company mergers, might be the weak spot.

The World is radically different today to th UK in the last HPC. We live in a global village and there is open talk in the US Media now of falling HPs in various US States. The word 'bubble' is often mentioned by journalists. How long before the UK catches up?

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Guest muttley

I personally do not think it will take the 5 or 6 years that the last HP crash took to reach bottom. I think it will take about 18 months this time.

I believe this for these factors:

1. The bubble is not just a UK one. It is global and we will be affected by crashes in other countries.

2. The British will 'identify' with crashes in English speaking places such as the US, Oz, NZ.

3. 24 Hour News - they have to fill their time with something and I have no doubt that doom and gloom of HPs crashing will be on 24 hours a day eventually. You won't be able to 'switch it off'.

4. The Internet - sites like this, chat rooms, forums, etc, will speed the collapse.

5. The general global economic condition. Dire.

6. Ditto the above re the UK. Not good.

7. The HP crash will mirror the dot.con crash.

8. The enormous price increases will 'flip' and become enormous price falls rapidly.

9. The BTL market - I am convinced that a small but significant number of BTLers drove up the market.

10. IRs are on the way up globally. The UK cannot stand alone on this.

11. Sadly, sometime in the next 18 months I think we will see some terrible terrorist event.

12. A clever boy - I would not be surprised if there is some Soros like guy out there currently who is probably dreaming up a cuning plan to make a killing in the above conditions. The falling Pound, apparently being propped up by Euro company mergers, might be the weak spot.

The World is radically different today to th UK in the last HPC. We live in a global village and there is open talk in the US Media now of falling HPs in various US States. The word 'bubble' is often mentioned by journalists. How long before the UK catches up?

Well if he says he's got proof that the crash won't happen,then that's good enough for me!

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No, it's an honest question, and a valid one.

For the last 2 years my team and I have been researching the global housing market with a particular focus on the UK (for funding reasons - economic research has to sadly be paid for somehow!).

The research part of the project is now over and so after two years of lurking on HPC and other sites (great blog by the way) it's time for me to go on home.

During that time a lot has happened; when we started no one thought about bubbles! For a while, it has been touch and go for property but now it appears we are turning a corner and the crash feared by a few is not going to materialise. Our research also supported this finding 6 months ago when we submitted the first model for scrutiny.

So why are you (if you are) still a bear? You had a point 1 year ago but now it is clear the evidence does not support this point of view?

I don't honestly think it's habit as there are a lot of intelligent people on this site.

So is it that you enjoy being contrarians?

Anyway, many thanks to the author of this site (Gavin's the handle isn't it?) and thanks for filling my last two years with what has been, on the whole, an intelligent and well argued debate. I sincerely hope that you get what you want and a crash occurs, but sadly IMHO you are whistling in the dark.

If anyone has any interest in our findings let me know as we may be submitting the results for publication in the New Year if we can get the permission of the consortium.

Good luck

Your post reminds me of that wonderful story Steve McQueen tells Yul Bryner in 'The Magnificent Seven'. He tells the story of a man who falls off the roof of a 5 storey building and as he passes the windows on the way down he can be heard saying "So far so good!".

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Possibly but it would be far easier and cheaper for HPC to place a link to such a large the document in the blog! Saying that, the exec summary might fit into a post or two, but not much use to serious researchers as it is a summary.

And you'd know that the idea of having models is to predict a trend! Besides, perhaps you'd like to explain why what should traditionally be a quiet time of year for property is turning into one of the busiest since last year? I suppose you could trot out the 'flight to quality' argument, but that has so many flaws as to be almost invalid. Not least of which is the fact that the adjusted volatility index should have started to rise if this was the case, not fall!

Sorry, it's not personal, but you are not exactly dealing with an 'interested amateur' in this area. :rolleyes:

Ok, I'll take my last comment back (as you didn't just post once).

Don't you think the interest rate cut had alot to do with it? Which in hindsight, shouldn't have been made.

Oh, and welcome to HPC. Please let us know your expectations for the next 12 months.

I'm sure most on here would like to see the report, maybe post the exec summary here (or a new thread)? Then PM a mod to add the full report to the blog?

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For the last 2 years my team and I have been researching the global housing market with a particular focus on the UK (for funding reasons - economic research has to sadly be paid for somehow!).

Yawn. Is it for your school project? You don't sound very old.

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No, it's an honest question, and a valid one.

Indeed. Funny how people just can't help parading their egos. So you (and your team) are some high-powered squad of professionals who've worked thoroughly over all the evidence, lurking on forums like this to gather evidence, and at the end of that you just can't resist the temptation to pop up and say "look at me I'm just so damned clever and so much smarter than all you sad gits". What do you want us to do, run up the flag and surrender to your superior wisdom?

Show us some analysis then maybe there'll be something to talk about. Otherwise please go and be smug somewhere else where you might be appreciated. So long, a**-wipe.

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I'm starting to think that bearishness is infectious. What's wrong with you TTRTR? Honestly...

There's nothing wrong with me, it's you lot that need your heads read. You (not you personally) couldn't spot a teaser post if it jumped out of your terminal & slapped you!!!!

Just look at the language & mistakes to see this person is having you on.

AWOOGA!!!!

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Yawn. Is it for your school project? You don't sound very old.

Hold on chaps... Researcher could provide valued debate with his/her report... if you're ok about posting it?

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Ok, I'll take my last comment back (as you didn't just post once).

Don't you think the interest rate cut had alot to do with it? Which in hindsight, shouldn't have been made.

Oh, and welcome to HPC. Please let us know your expectations for the next 12 months.

I'm sure most on here would like to see the report, maybe post the exec summary here (or a new thread)? Then PM a mod to add the full report to the blog?

Ah yes, the one possible chink in the stagnation argument!

IMO this argument doesn't hold for two reasons:

1. Base rates rose 125 pts over a 25 month period and we saw little impact feeding through to the market until they had risen for quite a while. Why then would 1 small 25 pt fall cause so much of an impact so quickly?

2. If the stabalisation in prices was due to IR reduction then shouldn't we have seen a rise in consumer confidence on the high street first as low ticket purchases take precidence, especially now in the lead up to christmas? Shouldn't consumer confidence in fact now a rising leading indicator? This would be a classic fools rally, but this is not what is occuring.

Instead we are seeing the opposite, people buying homes and starting to save. Not exactly a classic response to easing IR.

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No, it's an honest question, and a valid one.

For the last 2 years my team and I have been researching the global housing market with a particular focus on the UK (for funding reasons - economic research has to sadly be paid for somehow!).

The research part of the project is now over and so after two years of lurking on HPC and other sites (great blog by the way) it's time for me to go on home.

During that time a lot has happened; when we started no one thought about bubbles! For a while, it has been touch and go for property but now it appears we are turning a corner and the crash feared by a few is not going to materialise. Our research also supported this finding 6 months ago when we submitted the first model for scrutiny.

So why are you (if you are) still a bear? You had a point 1 year ago but now it is clear the evidence does not support this point of view?

I don't honestly think it's habit as there are a lot of intelligent people on this site.

So is it that you enjoy being contrarians?

Anyway, many thanks to the author of this site (Gavin's the handle isn't it?) and thanks for filling my last two years with what has been, on the whole, an intelligent and well argued debate. I sincerely hope that you get what you want and a crash occurs, but sadly IMHO you are whistling in the dark.

If anyone has any interest in our findings let me know as we may be submitting the results for publication in the New Year if we can get the permission of the consortium.

Good luck B)

I have been offered a £40,000 saving againt a new build from new..

That is common..

You have done no research for we have never claimed that it was overnight.

but the saving above.. It might not be a crash.. but I don't know what it is..

weird..

I hope you didn't get paid too much.. lol.. bless you..

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There's nothing wrong with me, it's you lot that need your heads read. You (not you personally) couldn't spot a teaser post if it jumped out of your terminal & slapped you!!!!

Just look at the language & mistakes to see this person is having you on.

AWOOGA!!!!

Up to your usual form then Rents!

Please actually read my posts before you sound a troll alert. They are reasoned and IMO accurate. I have neither been abusive nor ranting. Not exactly classic troll behaviour. I wish we could say the same about you.

If you think I'm a troll please do not dignify me with a reply as it spoils a thread by making it unreadable.

Night then.

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Instead we are seeing the opposite, people buying homes and starting to save. Not exactly a classic response to easing IR.

People are saving because of demographics. People in their 40s and 50s are big savers and they are the major demographic now. If you were even a cr*py researcher, you would have known this. <_<

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People are saving because of demographics. People in their 40s and 50s are big savers and they are the major demographic now. If you were even a cr*py researcher, you would have known this. <_<

I really think you should re-read that.

40s and 50s currently hold the largest debt burden.

Thankfully I'm not a cr*py researcher so I know this.

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Your absolutely right. There is going to be no crash (I'm a Born Again Bull so I know these things). The fact is, unless interest rates stop being manipulated to political aims in the style of a semi-command economy from the 1970s it will never happen. (Ignore oil. Its different this time). Things will remain as they are, and the build up of homeless and soon jobless middle classes will continue to vote labour because Tony is (still) cool, and Britannia is still rocking.

BBB.

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Hi 2000

What’s your view on the US economy and the slowdown in house prices?

I’m sure you are familiar with the business cycle and the generally cyclical nature of economies what forecasts have you made for the UK macro economy over the next few years.

Have you calculated the impact of labour market arbitrage on incomes growth and the impact of same on rental returns?

Does your research address the differential impact of varying real estate values in competing economies?

You don’t have to answer all of these questions, and thanks in advance.

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There's nothing wrong with me, it's you lot that need your heads read. You (not you personally) couldn't spot a teaser post if it jumped out of your terminal & slapped you!!!!

Just look at the language & mistakes to see this person is having you on.

AWOOGA!!!!

Nice one. For once, I find myself in agreement with you. :D

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Instead we are seeing the opposite, people buying homes and starting to save. Not exactly a classic response to easing IR.

The increase in the savings ratio (from all-time lows in the last few years) is a classic response to worsening economic conditions; over-extended households tighten their belts, rebuild their (massively indebted) balance sheets and generally hunker down to weather the economic storm. Transactions in the housing market are actually down on the same time last year, so your portrayal of some massive resurgence in the housing market coinciding with a savings glut is misleading to say the least.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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