War In The Pacific?

[cashinmattress]

Are you sure you are not confusing the missile with China's unveiling of its plans to nuke America if necessary?

Amazing what your foreign office can accomplish when both parties bring MAD policy to the table.

[Goat]

I served in the Canadian Navy a while back.

Our trigger for Chinese intervention was and still remains the one thing they really want; Taiwan.

If boots go on the ground there, then the Pacific will see war.

Anything else is just posturing...

Posturing maybe, but the risk is this can get out of control. Another quote from AEP's blog:

I was shown detailed maps tracing movements of Chinese DDG warships and Yuan-class submarines that left me deeply alarmed over where this is going. Japanese officials said Chinese naval officers on patrol were not responding to normal signals.

"What we don't know is whether Chinese officers follow any international code of conduct? Do they understand what is banned and not banned? Does the Communist Party control their own military?" said one defence planner...

...While the US and China were able to calm the waters after an American military jet collided with a Chinese fighter in 2002 – killing the Chinese pilot – it is unlikely that any such mishap between China and Japan could be contained at this stage

Today's escalating spat has echoes of the Agadir crisis in 1911, the stand-off between Wilhelmine Germany and the Franco-British Entente in the final years before the First World War...

...The Agadir Crisis backfired against the Kaiser. The Entente did not break. But that is hardly a reassuring episode. The chain of events that followed were catastrophic.

France felt emboldened by British backing, with ripple effects through the Franco-Russian alliance. Russia then felt more able to push its luck when the Serbian crisis hit in 1914. Agadir fed an overwhelming sense of fury in Germany, a feeling that Britain had become an enemy.

What is clear is that the Chinese are starting to flex their muscles. For now they are probing to see how the US responds, in time they will feel confident enough to challenge them directly, when that happens all hell could break loose.

I'd say one possible scenario is that they use their vast holdings of US treasuries to cause an economic crisis in the US, once that happens the Chinese "air defence zone" will become reality and once that happens it's only a matter of time until Taiwan falls to China.

Edited November 26, 2013 by Goat

[cashinmattress]

Posturing maybe, but the risk is this can get out of control. Another quote from AEP's blog:

I was shown detailed maps tracing movements of Chinese DDG warships and Yuan-class submarines that left me deeply alarmed over where this is going. Japanese officials said Chinese naval officers on patrol were not responding to normal signals.

"What we don't know is whether Chinese officers follow any international code of conduct? Do they understand what is banned and not banned? Does the Communist Party control their own military?" said one defence planner...

...While the US and China were able to calm the waters after an American military jet collided with a Chinese fighter in 2002 – killing the Chinese pilot – it is unlikely that any such mishap between China and Japan could be contained at this stage

Today's escalating spat has echoes of the Agadir crisis in 1911, the stand-off between Wilhelmine Germany and the Franco-British Entente in the final years before the First World War...

...The Agadir Crisis backfired against the Kaiser. The Entente did not break. But that is hardly a reassuring episode. The chain of events that followed were catastrophic.

France felt emboldened by British backing, with ripple effects through the Franco-Russian alliance. Russia then felt more able to push its luck when the Serbian crisis hit in 1914. Agadir fed an overwhelming sense of fury in Germany, a feeling that Britain had become an enemy.

What is clear is that the Chinese are starting to flex their muscles. For now they are probing to see how the US responds, in time they will feel confident enough to challenge them directly, when that happens all hell could break loose.

I'd say one possible scenario is that they use their vast holdings of US treasuries to cause an economic crisis in the US, once that happens the Chinese "air defence zone" will become reality and once that happens it's only a matter of time until Taiwan falls to China.

Japan enslaved them. The UK murdered them, turned them into drug addicts and slaves, and the US is repeating that vile drug policy (into Russia as well) with their current Afghanistan stint.

Nothing will stop China from advancing into the world #1 spot militarily and economically; not in a symmetric fashion in regards to the military. I went to a seminar on this years ago, with a few speakers. I remember Gwynne Dyer talking about it, very interesting.

America currently has everything to lose by antagonising China. Japan is basically fvcked because of this Fukushima mess, and war looms in the middle east as the House of Saud is very much about to lose its OPEC hedgemony if this Iran deal isn't railroaded by the usual vested interests.

[Tankus]

And under everyone's noses the Chinese are stripping central Africa bare of raw materials .

And are now making economic inroads into central america .

[tinker]

It's an interesting end game to Globalisation.

Export your industry / labour to import cheap good, fluff up economy with debt and asset inflation and pretend the economy is better (fake GDP). Meanwhile with all that hard currency, manufacturing expertise and wealth generation, position yourself to acquire assets / resources with this new money whilst it is discovered the weakened emperor has no clothes. Position yourself to develop emerging markets and home market with latent, aspiring population.

To catch up those countries that sought globalisation will need to drop their standards of living.

[Lambie]

It's an interesting end game to Globalisation.

Yes indeed.

For 10 years now my stock response to the question "how should we best prepare children for the modern world?" has been "learn mandarin".

Everybody laughed.

Nobody laughs any more.

[BlokeInDurham]

Nothing will stop China from advancing into the world #1 spot militarily and economically; not in a symmetric fashion in regards to the military. I went to a seminar on this years ago, with a few speakers. I remember Gwynne Dyer talking about it, very interesting.

America currently has everything to lose by antagonising China.

Nothing will stop China, maybe except a catastrophically debilitating war with someone who could face up to them. Oh look, that's the USA. Despite national stereotypes, the Americans aren't all stupid and this would be the bit that worries me. Faced with an inevitable decline in the face of China, what chance any spark becoming, in some mindset somewhere in the US, an excuse for war on the basis of: "If it's going to happen, let's do it now before it's too late"?

[LJAR]

Nothing will stop China from advancing into the world #1 spot militarily and economically; not in a symmetric fashion in regards to the military. I went to a seminar on this years ago, with a few speakers. I remember Gwynne Dyer talking about it, very interesting.

hmm,

their economic growth is based on very massaged GDP numbers due to massive state sponsored spending on infrastructure projects that have little real value, so economically they will slow down. Remember when Russia and then Japan were "about to overtake the US"?

Socially they are going to have very big problems once people get rich enough to really start caring about corruption, lack of a democratic voice, etc. That could be a trigger for war, but realistically they don't have the domestic economy to be able to fight a big war they would end up against the US, UK, Canada, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan etc all at the same time. Economically and militarily outgunned.

In response to Lambie I would say get them to learn spanish, I think south and central america will be a bigger player than China in the long run and they speak English in India.

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/27/world/asia/us-flies-b-52s-into-chinas-expanded-air-defense-zone.html?hp&_r=0

Two long-range American bombers have conducted what Pentagon officials described Tuesday as a routine training mission through airspace recently claimed by China as its “air defense identification zone.”

It's just like the cold war never ended.

Will the Fonz be making a comeback?

[ccc]

I said people would look back at Syria as a historical turning point. I have every Faith that is true.

It was the moment the US gave in for the first time since they became #1

World altering event that most people won't realise for many years to come.

[1929crash]

If you want to see how a particular nuclear weapon would affect the area round a particular location, just have a go at this nuclear simulator:

http://www.nucleardarkness.org/nuclear/nuclearexplosionsimulator/

A more general look at this site will give lots of info about the horrendous global impacts of only a limited nuclear war.

[cashinmattress]

I said people would look back at Syria as a historical turning point. I have every Faith that is true.

It was the moment the US gave in for the first time since they became #1

World altering event that most people won't realise for many years to come.

Gave in? I don't remember them putting boots on the ground publicly. Everything is done for a reason, and the Middle East is still in open season for the MIC

Unless we are all mistaken, America was #1 when they were defeated with Vietnam.... and Iraq. Depends on how you classify victory.

Just some world altering events in living memory which matter;

1957 - birth control pill

1962 - comms satellites

1964 - first super computer

1969 - the internet

1970 - optical quality fibre

1981 - first shuttle launch

1984 - DNA fingerprinting

1985 - MRI

1989 - WWW, GPS

1998 - genetic sequence mapping

2009 - stem cells

America's ongoing game of empire in the middle east through direct intervention, proxy, provocation for dissonance and political discourse will be part of the military history and anthropology textbooks.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Clearly we should be expecting trouble in the region as Warner Bros have released Pacific Rim: http://www.pacificrimmovie.com/

The last time there were lots of Kaiju films was a few years after WW2 where they served as a kind of metaphor for the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Perhaps this time the Kaiju are China and the Jaeger (giant robots in the film) are Japan's response.

[RDW]

If you want to see how a particular nuclear weapon would affect the area round a particular location, just have a go at this nuclear simulator:

http://www.nucleardarkness.org/nuclear/nuclearexplosionsimulator/

A more general look at this site will give lots of info about the horrendous global impacts of only a limited nuclear war.

Great site, look I've just bombed Cowbridge

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25099781

[ccc]

Gave in? I don't remember them putting boots on the ground publicly. Everything is done for a reason, and the Middle East is still in open season for the MIC

Unless we are all mistaken, America was #1 when they were defeated with Vietnam.... and Iraq. Depends on how you classify victory.

Just some world altering events in living memory which matter;

1957 - birth control pill

1962 - comms satellites

1964 - first super computer

1969 - the internet

1970 - optical quality fibre

1981 - first shuttle launch

1984 - DNA fingerprinting

1985 - MRI

1989 - WWW, GPS

1998 - genetic sequence mapping

2009 - stem cells

America's ongoing game of empire in the middle east through direct intervention, proxy, provocation for dissonance and political discourse will be part of the military history and anthropology textbooks.

Yes they gave in. They said they were going into Syria whether everyone liked it or not. A few other countries said - eh don't think so.

The US capitulated. If this has happened in such an obvious and public way before - i don't remember it.

[dances with sheeple]

Possibly.

but this bit's garbage........

Been hearing that one in various newsletters etc for over ten years.

[ccc]

And the two examples you provide are completely different. The US invaded both those countries against mass opposition - unless i am mistaken

[dances with sheeple]

Nothing will stop China, maybe except a catastrophically debilitating war with someone who could face up to them. Oh look, that's the USA. Despite national stereotypes, the Americans aren't all stupid and this would be the bit that worries me. Faced with an inevitable decline in the face of China, what chance any spark becoming, in some mindset somewhere in the US, an excuse for war on the basis of: "If it's going to happen, let's do it now before it's too late"?

More chance of the Chinese people kicking off before anything like that happens?

[1929crash]

Yes they gave in. They said they were going into Syria whether everyone liked it or not. A few other countries said - eh don't think so.

The US capitulated. If this has happened in such an obvious and public way before - i don't remember it.

There was a powerful element in the Anglo-American foreign policy establishment who wanted a western attack on Syria - one which could have resulted in world war 3.

If it hadn't been for the deft footwork of Putin and Lavrov then Kerry and Hague might have had their way.

There seems to be a bit of a purge of senior generals and admirals in the US forces. the right in America are screaming that this is because Obama is a communist, traitor and so on. I think it is more likely that they are getting rid of the officers who were most keen on more conflict. the ones who arranged for the nukes to go missing just before Senator Lindsey Graham said that if there wasn't an attack on Syria there would be a nuclear terrorist event in Charleston Harbour.

[StainlessSteelCat]

hmm,

their economic growth is based on very massaged GDP numbers due to massive state sponsored spending on infrastructure projects that have little real value, so economically they will slow down. Remember when Russia and then Japan were "about to overtake the US"?

Socially they are going to have very big problems once people get rich enough to really start caring about corruption, lack of a democratic voice, etc. That could be a trigger for war, but realistically they don't have the domestic economy to be able to fight a big war they would end up against the US, UK, Canada, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan etc all at the same time. Economically and militarily outgunned.

In response to Lambie I would say get them to learn spanish, I think south and central america will be a bigger player than China in the long run and they speak English in India.

Yes, who knows what the truth is about China's economic progress. Neither the Chinese or Western media has much incentive to get it right. They are certainly racing towards something - although exactly what that is I couldn't say. Quite impressive to watch though coupled with many unappealing and hugely wasteful bits. I suspect future generations will despair at our seemingly endless demand for objects which while cheap aren't capable of fulfilling the function we bought them for.

Agree about South America. Plenty of potential to surprise in the next few decades, closer geographically and culturally to us as well.

[Eddie_George]

Great site, look I've just bombed Cowbridge

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25099781

Nice one. You're now on MI5's most wanted list.

[1929crash]

Nice one. You're now on MI5's most wanted list.

No, he's on their payroll.

[Frank Hovis]

By golly it's war!

Lucky we don't have Blair in No. 10 any more, he'd drag us into anything. Mind, Cameron might too.

[1929crash]

By golly it's war!

Lucky we don't have Blair in No. 10 any more, he'd drag us into anything. Mind, Cameron might too.

Don't forget Clegg.

[billybong]

Something could be timed in the pipeline to start just before the UK's 2015 general election (maybe not quite so likely just before the 2014 eu elections) to get votes. Like the Falklands.

On the basis of stop at nothing - just need to look at Help to Buy.

Edited November 26, 2013 by billybong