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It's Not Over Until The Last Bear Turns Bull

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That article mentions Grantham as another bear who has capitulated but although he thinks markets may still rise a bit, the advice is:

In our view, prudent investors should already be reducing their equity bets and their risk level in general. One of the more painful lessons in investing is that the prudent investor (or “value investor” if you prefer) almost invariably must forego plenty of fun at the top end of markets.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-19/jeremy-grantham-timing-bear-markets-25-upside-left-and-then-bust-we-all-deserve

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If the so called experts with more money than all of us are confused or worried aboht things what chance do we have.

I was chatting to an experienced EA today who commented that within 18 months they will be repoing much of what they are currently selling. Told me about one greedy seller who turned down an almost full cash offer by saying "That will probably be the last offer she gets".

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I had a look again tonight to see if hendry had done any more youtube stuff. In fact all the people I like to listen to have gone quiet. :(

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It's very hard to time a market. That's why people like Jim Rogers don't bother trying.

Perhaps not, but I'm sure JR builds all sorts of scenarios into his trading positions and reviews them continuously, which is the smart way of timing the market. The only sensible way to trade at all, really.

But permabears are as deluded as permabulls. Markets and economies always move in cycles, at times seemingly independent of each other. It's not unknown for them to be anti-correlated for years on end. Going long the market in 2009 was a no-brainer even if you had zero expectations of a broader economic recovery.

I also find it ironic that Hendry has finally capitulated now that the taper talk has closed down the mortgage refinancing window and is threatening to act like a permanent drag on the US economy next year. Very odd.

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Nah, the last bear is Denninger IMO. He seems to slowly be going insane, his blog posts becoming more profanity and anger by the day. I think the final straw was the 'no taper' announcement. Now he seems to be gradually withdrawing...until one day I expect he, astounded at how long Bernanke is able to mutilate the 'laws of mathematics' he goes on about, will announce he's all in and bet the house on the DJIA. :lol: My theory, anyway. Theres no one more absolutely steadfastly bearish (but non-hyperinflationista) than Denninger Ive come across.

I do like his blog though. He manages to find something wrong with everything.

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Nah, the last bear is Denninger IMO. He seems to slowly be going insane, his blog posts becoming more profanity and anger by the day. I think the final straw was the 'no taper' announcement. Now he seems to be gradually withdrawing...until one day I expect he, astounded at how long Bernanke is able to mutilate the 'laws of mathematics' he goes on about, will announce he's all in and bet the house on the DJIA. :lol: My theory, anyway. Theres no one more absolutely steadfastly bearish (but non-hyperinflationista) than Denninger Ive come across.

I do like his blog though. He manages to find something wrong with everything.

Denninger used to sound credible, but then he promoted Blackberry and talked down Bitcoin. Anyone who followed his words has taken a huge loss, and missed out on a big opportunity. Then he stopped posting financials and moved to pure politics. Now he is shutting down the site in protest every few weeks. Some evidence that he is indeed going mad.

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I mend holes in the internet superhighway.

I would have plumped for,

I apply vinyl graphics to metrosexual B-segment hatchbacks

Edited by 7 Year Itch

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I would have plumped for,

I apply vinyl graphics to metrosexual B-segment hatchbacks

I am Deryck - Destroyer of Worlds and double glazing salesman.

Well, Hendry was once a HPC darling and much loved of Newsnight IIRC with his bearish predictions. Are people who thought he was the Messiah entitled to feel phissed?

To so publicly come out bullish means what? He has just gone long or went long 6 months ago but is only going public about it now?

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MT, just out of interest, what is it you do that means you spend so much time with EAs?

Provider of dungeon equipment for A list celebrities? :P

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Re-reading Bernake's deflation avoidance notes from 2002 recently, and then reading about Yellen being even more aggressive - I have to say it doesn't look good.

They know dollar dominance is coming to a end - they really have nothing to lose now - and are going to throw everything they have at avoiding deflation.

It's going to be one bubble after another.

I am starting to agree with Hugh Hendry on the can't beat them join them thinking.

Maybe we need to pool our resources and start the ultimate BTL syndicate.

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Re-reading Bernake's deflation avoidance notes from 2002 recently, and then reading about Yellen being even more aggressive - I have to say it doesn't look good.

They know dollar dominance is coming to a end - they really have nothing to lose now - and are going to throw everything they have at avoiding deflation.

It's going to be one bubble after another.

I am starting to agree with Hugh Hendry on the can't beat them join them thinking.

Maybe we need to pool our resources and start the ultimate BTL syndicate.

It seems to me that they look to underperforming assets and then create bubble in them - whoever does that I am unsure. The banks, the hedge funds, the central banks.

I am not a gold bug by any means but I have paused to consider whether the next bubble they will ramp will be gold and silver and other PMs. They have been beaten down and perhaps TPTB will soon decide to ramp them.

General stocks, HPs, etc, have all been ramped so why not look around for something with more ramping potential. Ah, let's get the mugs interested in PMs again... and so this will go on for a few years.... ramping bubbles... Heck, even bitcoin appears to be in the middle of a giant ramping operation.

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Re-reading Bernake's deflation avoidance notes from 2002 recently, and then reading about Yellen being even more aggressive - I have to say it doesn't look good.

They know dollar dominance is coming to a end - they really have nothing to lose now - and are going to throw everything they have at avoiding deflation.

It's going to be one bubble after another.

I am starting to agree with Hugh Hendry on the can't beat them join them thinking.

Maybe we need to pool our resources and start the ultimate BTL syndicate.

It depends on what asset you're thinking of buying. Hendry is talking three and a half years.

I have been prepared to underperform for the fun of being proved right when markets crash. But that could be in three-and-a-half-years' time.

I wouldn't buy a house to lose money in three and a half years when I can rent cheaply and let someone else take the hit.

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Original article - http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/2308814/i-cant-look-at-myself-in-the-mirror-hendry-on-why-hes-turned-bullish

Hendry said he retains a degree of safety within his portfolio by hedging out his bullishness through trades such as high beta US stocks versus emerging market stocks.

"There is the constant danger that Western bankers turn bullish again, start leveraging up, and we see money go into productive assets, not financial assets," he said.

"If that happens and the Fed does tighten policy [as a result], it will just be really bad news for emerging markets."

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What an utter, utter w@nker.

That were my first thoughts also. I can still see him in all those Newsnight debates warning us of the coming economic collapse. Are his China youtube videos still up?

Just did a search and loads of his Newsnight stuff, amongst other stuff, is up there.

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That's not really fair.

He has assets to manage.

If he's seeing probability that forces beyond his control will further prevent the correction, that any rational person would have expected to happen by now, what else can he do.

This isn't some religious cause - he is employed to make profit.

When they pulled the taper and nominated Yellen - it became clear that we have barely even started the ramp yet.

Edited by slacker

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